Yris Olaya

PREDICCIÓN DE SERIES TEMPORALES USANDO MÁQUINAS DE VECTORES DE SOPORTE

Time series prediction is an important research problem due to its implications in engineering, economics, finance and social sciences. An important topic about this problematic is the development of new models and its comparison with previous approaches in terms of forecast accuracy. Recently, support vector machines (SVM) have been used for time series prediction, but the reported experiences are limited and there are some problems related to its specification. The aim of this paper is to propose a novel technique for estimating some constants of the SVM usually fixed empirically by the modeler. The proposed technique is used to estimate several SVM with the aim of forecast five benchmark time series; the obtained results are compared with the statistics reported in other papers. The proposed method allow us to obtain competitive SVM for the time series forecasted in comparison with the results obtained using other most traditional models.

An agent-based simulation approach to congestion management for the Colombian electricity market

Power markets are complex systems in which decisions made by independent actors must satisfy technological constraints while providing a reliable service that increases social welfare. While agents freely trade their energy, trades must satisfy physical constraints of the transmission grid. The mechanisms for organizing trade and operating networks are increasingly complex and there is a growing need for computational tools that help understand how market rules work under transmission constraints. We present a hybrid optimization and agent based simulation approach for analyzing changes in transmission pricing in Colombia. The model has a module for transmission based on optimal flow problems and a market module that simulates the market operation. We show how the approach proposed is useful for evaluating the performance of generation–transmission expansion plans.

Chapter 14 – Latin America Energy Integration: An Outstanding Dilemma

This chapter examines energy integration issues within Latin America, with a discussion of the current situation, focusing on both the “haves” and “have-nots” and the benefits and drawbacks from energy integration. It examines the opportunities and prospects for the future, in particular with a discussion of some of the benefits that might be attained from widespread integration of electricity markets within the region, and why these opportunities have not been achieved to date, identifying the geopolitical issues that should be considered in any integration effort, and the progress that has been achieved so far by looking at the regional experiences in energy integration. Among the conclusions of this chapter is the belief that for energy integration to succeed in Latam, a compelling belief is needed within policymakers and political establishment on the benefits that can be attained from such integration.

An agent-based simulation model for evaluating financial transmission rights in the colombian electricity market

Congestion of transmission and the need to allocate congested capacity is one of the problems that arise in the operation of power transmission grids. Congestion can be managed with mechanisms based on rules and also with market mechanisms such as financial transmission rights. In this paper we present a simulation model for evaluating options for managing transmission capacity in the Colombian electricity system. The model combines agent-based simulation with optimization in order to examine if financial transmission rights can improve capacity allocation in the Colombian market. The main contribution of this research is to provide a simple model that combines the physical features of the interconnected system and the economic features of the Colombian power market, allowing decision makers to better evaluate regulatory alternatives. Our results suggest that a market approach is effective in managing transmission congestion, although it increases the complexity of market rules.

Sustainability of the domestic consumption of construction materials in Colombia, 1990-2013

In order to assess the sustainability of the consumption of construction materials in Colombia, we analyze the patterns of consumption of these materials between 1990 and 2013. We use domestic consumption of materials, consumption of materials per capita, and intensity of consumption of construction materials as sustainability indicators. Results show that the domestic consumption of construction materials has increased since 1998 until reaching a share in the domestic consumption of materials only inferior to the share of biomass. We find that the ratio of domestic material consumption to GDP decreased during the period of analysis and that changes in construction techniques partially explain the diminishing intensity of consumption of construction materials in Colombia.

Sostenibilidad del consumo doméstico de materiales de construcción en Colombia, 1990-2013

In order to assess the sustainability of the consumption of construction materials in Colombia, we analyze the patterns of consumption of these materials between 1990 and 2013. We use domestic consumption of materials, consumption of materials per capita, and intensity of consumption of construction materials as sustainability indicators. Results show that the domestic consumption of construction materials has increased since 1998 until reaching a share in the domestic consumption of materials only inferior to the share of biomass. We find that the ratio of domestic material consumption to GDP decreased during the period of analysis and that changes in construction techniques partially explain the diminishing intensity of consumption of construction materials in Colombia.

Mechanisms for remunerating electricity transmission capacity

In this paper, we analyze the main schemes for pricing electricity transmission. First, we present a comparison of the performance of pricing schemes using criteria from the Energy Modeling Forum. And second, we discuss a classification of the performance of mechanisms in different market structures. Our analysis shows the importance of considering the market structure and design when designing pricing mechanisms for transmission services.