Yu Jeffrey Hu

Consumer Surplus in the Digital Economy: Estimating the Value of Increased Product Variety at Online Booksellers

We present a framework and empirical estimates that quantify the economic impact of increased product variety made available through electronic markets. While efficiency gains from increased competition significantly enhance consumer surplus, for instance, by leading to lower average selling prices, our present research shows that increased product variety made available through electronic markets can be a significantly larger source of consumer surplus gains.One reason for increased product variety on the Internet is the ability of online retailers to catalog, recommend, and provide a large number of products for sale. For example, the number of book titles available at Amazon.com is more than 23 times larger than the number of books on the shelves of a typical Barnes & Noble superstore, and 57 times greater than the number of books stocked in a typical large independent bookstore.Our analysis indicates that the increased product variety of online bookstores enhanced consumer welfare by

Battle of the Retail Channels: How Product Selection and Geography Drive Cross-Channel Competition

731 million to

The Longer Tail: The Changing Shape of Amazon’s Sales Distribution Curve

1.03 billion in the year 2000, which is between 7 and 10 times as large as the consumer welfare gain from increased competition and lower prices in this market. There may also be large welfare gains in other SKU-intensive consumer goods such as music, movies, consumer electronics, and computer software and hardware.

The Impact of Ebook Distribution on Print Sales: Analysis of a Natural Experiment

A key question for Internet commerce is the nature of competition with traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. Although traditional retailers vastly outsell Internet retailers in most product categories, research on Internet retailing has largely neglected this fundamental dimension of competition. Is cross-channel competition significant, and if so, how and where can Internet retailers win this battle? This paper attempts to answer these questions using a unique combination of data sets. We collect data on local market structures for traditional retailers, and then match these data to a data set on consumer demand via two direct channels: Internet and catalog. Our analyses show that Internet retailers face significant competition from brick-and-mortar retailers when selling mainstream products, but are virtually immune from competition when selling niche products. Furthermore, because the Internet channel sells proportionately more niche products than the catalog channel, the competition between the Internet channel and local stores is less intense than the competition between the catalog channel and local stores. The methods we introduce can be used to analyze cross-channel competition in other product categories, and suggest that managers need to take into account the types of products they sell when assessing competitive strategies.

Product-Oriented Web Technologies and Product Returns: An Exploratory Study

Internet consumers derive significant surplus from increased product variety, and in particular, the “Long Tail” of niche products that can be found on the Internet at retailers like Amazon.com. In this paper we analyze how the shape of Amazon’s sales distribution curve has changed from 2000 to 2008, and how this impacts the resulting consumer surplus gains from increased product variety in the online book market. Specifically, in 2008 we collected sales and sales rank data on a broad sample of books sold through Amazon.com and compare it to similar data we gathered in 2000. We then develop a new methodology for fitting the relationship between sales and sales rank and apply it to our data. We find that the Long Tail has grown longer over time, with niche books accounting for a larger share of total sales. Our analyses suggest that by 2008, niche books account for 36.7% of Amazon’s sales and the consumer surplus generated by niche books has increased at least five fold from 2000 to 2008. We argue that this increase is consistent with the presence of “secondary” supply- and demand- side effects driving the growth of the Long Tail online. In addition, our new methodology finds that, while power laws are a good first approximation for the rank-sales relationship, the slope is not constant for all book ranks, becoming progressively steeper for more obscure books.

Incentive Problems in Performance-Based Online Advertising Pricing: Cost per Click vs. Cost per Action

Digital distribution channels introduce several new strategic questions for the creative industries. Two notable questions are (1) how will participation in digital channels impact physical sales, and (2) where should digital releases occur relative to existing “physical” release dates. These questions are particularly salient for book publishing where firms have expressed concern that making ebooks available alongside hardcover titles may cannibalize hardcover sales.We analyze the impact of ebook availability on physical sales using a natural experiment that occurred between April and June 2010. Across all titles we find that delaying ebook availability results in a small (and statistically insignificant) increase in print sales and a large decrease in total ebook sales. However, we also find this effect is moderated by consumers’ brand awareness and digital channel preference: delaying Kindle availability for books with strong brand awareness and weak digital channel preference results in a statistically significant increase in print sales for those titles.These results contribute to a growing academic literature analyzing the impact of digitization on marketing strategies in the media industries. Our results also highlight the usefulness of natural experiments derived from rapidly changing media distribution environments for identifying the impact of digital distribution channels on sales.

Monetary Incentive and Crowd-sourced Equity Research

Internet retailers have been making significant investments in Web technologies, such as zoom, alternative photos, and color swatch, that are capable of providing detailed product-oriented information and, thereby, mitigating the lack of “touch and feel,” which, in turn, is expected to lower product returns. However, a clear understanding of the relationship between these technologies and product returns is still lacking. Our study attempts to fill this gap by using several econometric models to explore the said relationship. Our unique and rich data set from a womens clothing company allows us to measure technology usage at the product level for each consumer. The results show that, in this context, zoom usage has a negative coefficient, suggesting that a higher use of the zoom technology is associated with fewer returns. Interestingly, we find that a higher use of alternative photos is associated with more returns and, perhaps more importantly, with lower net sales. Color swatch, on the other hand, does not seem to have any effect on returns. Thus, our findings show that different technologies have different effects on product returns. We provide explanations for these findings based on the extant literature. We also conduct a number of tests to ensure the robustness of the results.

Does Monetary Incentive Lead to Better Stock Recommendations on Social Media

The multibillion-dollar online advertising industry continues to debate whether to use the cost per click (CPC) or cost per action (CPA) pricing model as an industry standard. This paper applies the economic framework of incentive contracts to study how these pricing models can lead to risk sharing between the publisher and the advertiser and incentivize them to make efforts that improve the performance of online ads. We find that, compared with the CPC model, the CPA model can better incentivize the publisher to make efforts that can improve the purchase rate. However, the CPA model can cause an adverse selection problem: the winning advertiser tends to have a lower profit margin under the CPA model than under the CPC model. We identify the conditions under which the CPA model leads to higher publisher (or advertiser) payoffs than the CPC model. Whether publishers (or advertisers) prefer the CPA model over the CPC model depends on the advertisers’ risk aversion, uncertainty in the product market, and the...

Goodbye Pareto Principle, Hello Long Tail: The Effect of Search Costs on the Concentration of Product Sales

AbstractNot only is social media a new channel to obtain financial market information, it has also become a venue for investors to share and exchange investment ideas. We examine the performance consequences of providing monetary incentive to both existing and new amateur analysts on social media and its implications for online investor communities. We find that monetary incentive is effective in increasing the amount of content output and generating more interest from the community, but it leads to neither better nor worse stock recommendations. Additional analysis suggests that monetary incentive results in wider stock and industry coverage, a sign of increased content diversity. This study contributes to the understanding of the role of monetary incentive in stimulating the sharing of value-relevant information by investors in social media communities.

From Niches to Riches: Anatomy of the Long Tail

AbstractNot only is social media a new channel to obtain financial market information, it has also become a venue for investors to share and exchange investment ideas. We examine the performance consequences of providing monetary incentive to both existing and new amateur analysts on social media and its implications for online investor communities. We find that monetary incentive is effective in increasing the amount of content output and generating more interest from the community, but it leads to neither better nor worse stock recommendations. Additional analysis suggests that monetary incentive results in wider stock and industry coverage, a sign of increased content diversity. This study contributes to the understanding of the role of monetary incentive in stimulating the sharing of value-relevant information by investors in social media communities.