Yude Pan

A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests

Net average global annual uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide by forests was 1.1 petagrams of carbon, roughly one-sixth of fossil fuel emissions. The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year–1) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year–1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year–1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

Equilibrium responses of global net primary production and carbon storage to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration

We ran the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) for the globe at 0.5° resolution for atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 340 and 680 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to evaluate global and regional responses of net primary production (NPP) and carbon storage to elevated CO2 for their sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. At 340 ppmv, TEM estimated global NPP of 49.0 1015 g (Pg) C yr−1 and global total carbon storage of 1701.8 Pg C; the estimate of total carbon storage does not include the carbon content of inert soil organic matter. For the reference simulation in which doubled atmospheric CO2 was accompanied with no change in vegetation nitrogen concentration, global NPP increased 4.1 Pg C yr−1 (8.3%), and global total carbon storage increased 114.2 Pg C. To examine sensitivity in the global responses of NPP and carbon storage to decreases in the nitrogen concentration of vegetation, we compared doubled CO2 responses of the reference TEM to simulations in which the vegetation nitrogen concentration was reduced without influencing decomposition dynamics (“lower N” simulations) and to simulations in which reductions in vegetation nitrogen concentration influence decomposition dynamics (“lower N+D” simulations). We conducted three lower N simulations and three lower N+D simulations in which we reduced the nitrogen concentration of vegetation by 7.5, 15.0, and 22.5%. In the lower N simulations, the response of global NPP to doubled atmospheric CO2 increased approximately 2 Pg C yr−1 for each incremental 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, and vegetation carbon increased approximately an additional 40 Pg C, and soil carbon increased an additional 30 Pg C, for a total carbon storage increase of approximately 70 Pg C. In the lower N+D simulations, the responses of NPP and vegetation carbon storage were relatively insensitive to differences in the reduction of nitrogen concentration, but soil carbon storage showed a large change. The insensitivity of NPP in the N+D simulations occurred because potential enhancements in NPP associated with reduced vegetation nitrogen concentration were approximately offset by lower nitrogen availability associated with the decomposition dynamics of reduced litter nitrogen concentration. For each 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, soil carbon increased approximately an additional 60 Pg C, while vegetation carbon storage increased by only approximately 5 Pg C. As the reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration gets greater in the lower N+D simulations, more of the additional carbon storage tends to become concentrated in the north temperate-boreal region in comparison to the tropics. Other studies with TEM show that elevated CO2 more than offsets the effects of climate change to cause increased carbon storage. The results of this study indicate that carbon storage would be enhanced by the influence of changes in plant nitrogen concentration on carbon assimilation and decomposition rates. Thus changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration may have important implications for the ability of the terrestrial biosphere to mitigate increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and climate changes associated with the increases.

Increasing net primary production in China from 1982 to 1999

We used a simple process model and satellite data to explore trends in China’s terrestrial net primary production (NPP). We found that the country’s terrestrial NPP increased by 18.7% from 1982 to 1999. Evidence for this major increase also came from crop yields and forest inventory surveys, and much of it appeared to be the result of a lengthening of the growing season. Plant growth also increased during the middle of the growing season, but to a lesser extent. Historical NPP trends indicate a great deal of spatial heterogeneity, increasing significantly over an area covering 30.8% of China during the past 18 years, but decreasing in areas undergoing rapid urbanization.

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects - bark beetles and defoliators - which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree-insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

BIOMASS AND NPP ESTIMATION FOR THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION (USA) USING PLOT‐LEVEL FOREST INVENTORY DATA

As interest grows in quantification of global carbon cycles, process model predictions of forest biomass and net primary production (NPP) are being developed at an accelerating rate. Such models can provide useful predictions at large scales, but it has been difficult to evaluate their performance. Using the network of plots comprising the comprehensive and spatially extensive Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data set collected and maintained by the USDA Forest Service, we applied methods typically used in field measurements to develop estimates of forest biomass and NPP for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States at a scale appropriate for comparison with model predictions. Plot-level and tree-level forest inventory data from a subset of plots were used together with species-specific biomass regression equations to calculate maximum current biomass and NPP values for the mid-Atlantic region. Estimates at the plot level were aggregated by forest type and to the 0.5° × 0.5° scale for analysis and comparison with process model predictions. Maximum current forest biomass averaged 248 and 200 Mg·ha−1·yr−1 in hardwood and softwood forest types, respectively; wood biomass increment averaged 559 and 460 g·m−2·yr−1 in hardwood and softwood forest types, respectively. Aggregated to the 0.5° × 0.5° scale, forest biomass ranged from 101 to 326 Mg/ha, while wood biomass increment ranged from 254 to 1050 g·m−2·yr−1. Biomass and NPP estimates for closed-canopy forests from this study were consistent with values reported in the literature but were as much as 50% lower than values reported for old-growth stands. NPP predictions from three process models were fairly consistent with the FIA-based estimates, but model predictions of biomass were higher than estimates from FIA data for the region. By describing upper and lower bounds on reasonable biomass and NPP values for closed-canopy forests, these FIA-derived estimates provide a foundation for model comparison and continued model development.

Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: A comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)

Abstract Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO2. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In TEM, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by increased carboxylation which is modified by canopy conductance and the degree to which nitrogen constraints cause down-regulation of photosynthesis. The implementation of these different mechanisms has consequences for the spatial pattern of NPP responses, and represents, in part, conceptual uncertainty about controls over NPP responses. Progress in reducing these uncertainties requires research focused at the ecosystem level to understand how interactions between the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles influence the response of NPP to elevated atmospheric CO2.

Relationships between net primary productivity and forest stand age in U.S. forests

[1] Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key flux in the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance, as it summarizes the autotrophic input into the system. Forest NPP varies predictably with stand age, and quantitative information on the NPP-age relationship for different regions and forest types is therefore fundamentally important for forest carbon cycle modeling. We used four terms to calculate NPP: annual accumulation of live biomass, annual mortality of aboveground and belowground biomass, foliage turnover to soil, and fine root turnover in soil. For U.S. forests the first two terms can be reliably estimated from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data. Although the last two terms make up more than 50% of total NPP, direct estimates of these fluxes are highly uncertain due to limited availability of empirical relationships between aboveground biomass and foliage or fine root biomass. To resolve this problem, we developed a new approach using maps of leaf area index (LAI) and forest age at 1 km resolution to derive LAI-age relationships for 18 major forest type groups in the USA. These relationships were then used to derive foliage turnover estimates using species-specific trait data for leaf specific area and longevity. These turnover estimates were also used to derive the fine root turnover based on reliable relationships between fine root and foliage turnover. This combination of FIA data, remote sensing, and plant trait information allows for the first empirical and reliable NPP-age relationships for different forest types in the USA. The relationships show a general temporal pattern of rapid increase in NPP in the young ages of forest type groups, peak growth in the middle ages, and slow decline in the mature ages. The predicted patterns are influenced by climate conditions and can be affected by forest management. These relationships were further generalized to three major forest biomes for use by continentalscale carbon cycle models in conjunction with remotely sensed land cover types. Citation: He, L., J. M. Chen, Y. Pan, R. Birdsey, and J. Kattge (2012), Relationships between net primary productivity and forest stand age in U.S. forests, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB3009, doi:10.1029/2010GB003942.

Attributing carbon changes in conterminous U.S. forests to disturbance and non-disturbance factors from 1901 to 2010

[1] Recent climate variability (increasing temperature, droughts) and atmospheric composition changes (nitrogen deposition, rising CO2 concentration) along with harvesting, wildfires, and insect infestations have had significant effects on U.S. forest carbon (C) uptake. In this study, we attribute C changes in the conterminous U.S. forests to disturbance and non-disturbance factors with the help of forest inventory data, a continental stand age map, and an updated Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Cycle model (InTEC). We grouped factors into disturbances (harvesting, fire, insect infestation) and non-disturbances (CO2 concentration, N deposition, and climate variability) and estimated their subsequent impacts on forest regrowth patterns. Results showed that on average, the C sink in the conterminous U.S. forests from 1950 to 2010 was 206 Tg C yr � 1 with 87% (180 Tg C yr � 1 ) of the sink in living biomass. Compared with the simulation of all factors combined, the estimated C sink would be reduced by 95 Tg C yr � 1 if disturbance factors were omitted, and reduced by 50 Tg C yr � 1 if non-disturbance factors were omitted. Our study also showed diverse regional patterns of C sinks related to the importance of driving factors. During 1980–2010, disturbance effects dominated the C changes in the South and Rocky Mountain regions, were almost equal to non-disturbance effects in the North region, and had minor effects compared with non-disturbance effects in the West Coast region.

Approaches to monitoring changes in carbon stocks for REDD

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plus improving forest-management (REDD+) is a mechanism to facilitate tropical countries’ participation in climate change mitigation. In this review we focus on the current state of monitoring systems to support implementing REDD+. The main elements of current monitoring systems – Landsat satellites and traditional forest inventories – will continue to be the backbone of many forest-monitoring systems around the world, but new remote-sensing and analytical approaches are addressing monitoring problems specific to the tropics and implementing REDD+. There is increasing recognition of the utility of combining remote sensing with field data using models that integrate information from many sources, which will continue to evolve as new sensors are deployed and as the availability of field data increases.

Normalized algorithm for mapping and dating forest disturbances and regrowth for the United States

Forest disturbances such as harvesting, wildfire and insect infestation are critical ecosystem processes affecting the carbon cycle. Because carbon dynamics are related to time since disturbance, forest stand age that can be used as a surrogate for major clear-cut/fire disturbance information has recently been recognized as an important input to forest carbon cycle models for improving prediction accuracy. In this study, forest disturbances in the USA for the period of ~1990-2000 were mapped using 400+ pairs of re-sampled Landsat TM/ETM scenes in 500m resolution, which were provided by the Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System project. The detected disturbances were then separated into two five-year age groups, facilitated by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which was used to calculate the area of forest regeneration for each county in the USA. In this study, a disturbance index (DI) was defined as the ratio of the short wave infrared (SWIR, band 5) to near-infrared (NIR, band 4) reflectance. Forest disturbances were identified through the Normalized Difference of Disturbance Index (NDDI) between circa 2000 and 1990, where a positive NDDI means disturbance and a negative NDDI means regrowth. Axis rotation was performed on the plot between DIs of the two matched Landsat scenes in order to reduce any difference of DIs caused by non-disturbance factors. The threshold of NDDI for each TM/ETM pair was determined by analysis of FIA data. Minor disturbances affecting small areas may be omitted due to the coarse resolution of the aggregated Landsat data, but the major stand-clearing disturbances (clear-cut harvest, fire) are captured. The spatial distribution of the detected disturbed areas was validated by Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire data in four States of the western USA (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and California). Results indicate omission errors of 66.9%. An important application of this remote sensing-based disturbance map is to associate with FIA forest age data for developing a US forest age map. The US forest age map was also combined with the Canadian forest age map to produce a continent-wide forest map, which becomes a remarkable data layer for North America carbon cycle modeling.