Yueqin Huang

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study.

BACKGROUND 100 years after the first description, Alzheimers disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. METHODS 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. FINDINGS Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24.3 million people have dementia today, with 4.6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81.1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. INTERPRETATION We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources.

Grand challenges in global mental health

A consortium of researchers, advocates and clinicians announces here research priorities for improving the lives of people with mental illness around the world, and calls for urgent action and investment.

Cross-National Prevalence and Risk Factors for Suicidal Ideation, Plans, and Attempts

BACKGROUND Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide; however, the prevalence and risk factors for the immediate precursors to suicide - suicidal ideation, plans and attempts - are not wellknown, especially in low- and middle-income countries. AIMS To report on the prevalence and risk factors for suicidal behaviours across 17 countries. METHOD A total of 84 850 adults were interviewed regarding suicidal behaviours and socio-demographic and psychiatric risk factors. RESULTS The cross-national lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation, plans, and attempts is 9.2% (s.e.=0.1), 3.1% (s.e.=0.1), and 2.7% (s.e.=0.1). Across all countries, 60% of transitions from ideation to plan and attempt occur within the first year after ideation onset. Consistent cross-national risk factors included being female, younger, less educated, unmarried and having a mental disorder. Interestingly, the strongest diagnostic risk factors were mood disorders in high-income countries but impulse control disorders in low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSION There is cross-national variability in the prevalence of suicidal behaviours, but strong consistency in the characteristics and risk factors for these behaviours. These findings have significant implications for the prediction and prevention of suicidal behaviours.

Toward a global view of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and cocaine use: findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background Alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drug use cause considerable morbidity and mortality, but good cross-national epidemiological data are limited. This paper describes such data from the first 17 countries participating in the World Health Organizations (WHOs) World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. Methods and Findings Household surveys with a combined sample size of 85,052 were carried out in the Americas (Colombia, Mexico, United States), Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Ukraine), Middle East and Africa (Israel, Lebanon, Nigeria, South Africa), Asia (Japan, Peoples Republic of China), and Oceania (New Zealand). The WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used to assess the prevalence and correlates of a wide variety of mental and substance disorders. This paper focuses on lifetime use and age of initiation of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine. Alcohol had been used by most in the Americas, Europe, Japan, and New Zealand, with smaller proportions in the Middle East, Africa, and China. Cannabis use in the US and New Zealand (both 42%) was far higher than in any other country. The US was also an outlier in cocaine use (16%). Males were more likely than females to have used drugs; and a sex–cohort interaction was observed, whereby not only were younger cohorts more likely to use all drugs, but the male–female gap was closing in more recent cohorts. The period of risk for drug initiation also appears to be lengthening longer into adulthood among more recent cohorts. Associations with sociodemographic variables were consistent across countries, as were the curves of incidence of lifetime use. Conclusions Globally, drug use is not distributed evenly and is not simply related to drug policy, since countries with stringent user-level illegal drug policies did not have lower levels of use than countries with liberal ones. Sex differences were consistently documented, but are decreasing in more recent cohorts, who also have higher levels of illegal drug use and extensions in the period of risk for initiation.

Cross-national analysis of the associations among mental disorders and suicidal behavior: findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

Using data from over 100,000 individuals in 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys, Matthew Nock and colleagues investigate which mental health disorders increase the odds of experiencing suicidal thoughts and actual suicide attempts, and how these relationships differ across developed and developing countries.

Prevalence of dementia in Latin America, India, and China: a population-based cross-sectional survey

Summary Background Studies have suggested that the prevalence of dementia is lower in developing than in developed regions. We investigated the prevalence and severity of dementia in sites in low-income and middle-income countries according to two definitions of dementia diagnosis. Methods We undertook one-phase cross-sectional surveys of all residents aged 65 years and older (n=14 960) in 11 sites in seven low-income and middle-income countries (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Dementia diagnosis was made according to the culturally and educationally sensitive 10/66 dementia diagnostic algorithm, which had been prevalidated in 25 Latin American, Asian, and African centres; and by computerised application of the dementia criterion from the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV). We also compared prevalence of DSM-IV dementia in each of the study sites with that from estimates in European studies. Findings The prevalence of DSM-IV dementia varied widely, from 0·3% (95% CI 0·1–0·5) in rural India to 6·3% (5·0–7·7) in Cuba. After standardisation for age and sex, DSM-IV prevalence in urban Latin American sites was four-fifths of that in Europe (standardised morbidity ratio 80 [95% CI 70–91]), but in China the prevalence was only half (56 [32–91] in rural China), and in India and rural Latin America a quarter or less of the European prevalence (18 [5–34] in rural India). 10/66 dementia prevalence was higher than that of DSM-IV dementia, and more consistent across sites, varying between 5·6% (95% CI 4·2–7·0) in rural China and 11·7% (10·3–13·1) in the Dominican Republic. The validity of the 847 of 1345 cases of 10/66 dementia not confirmed by DSM-IV was supported by high levels of associated disability (mean WHO Disability Assessment Schedule II score 33·7 [SD 28·6]). Interpretation As compared with the 10/66 dementia algorithm, the DSM-IV dementia criterion might underestimate dementia prevalence, especially in regions with low awareness of this emerging public-health problem. Funding Wellcome Trust (UK); WHO; the US Alzheimers Association; and Fondo Nacional De Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo De Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, and Universidad Central De Venezuela (Venezuela).

Contribution of chronic diseases to disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based survey

Summary Background Disability in elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes is little studied; according to Global Burden of Disease estimates, visual impairment is the leading contributor to years lived with disability in this population. We aimed to assess the contribution of physical, mental, and cognitive chronic diseases to disability, and the extent to which sociodemographic and health characteristics account for geographical variation in disability. Methods We undertook cross-sectional surveys of residents aged older than 65 years (n=15 022) in 11 sites in seven countries with low and middle incomes (China, India, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru). Disability was assessed with the 12-item WHO disability assessment schedule 2.0. Dementia, depression, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were ascertained by clinical assessment; diabetes, stroke, and heart disease by self-reported diagnosis; and sensory, gastrointestinal, skin, limb, and arthritic disorders by self-reported impairment. Independent contributions to disability scores were assessed by zero-inflated negative binomial regression and Poisson regression to generate population-attributable prevalence fractions (PAPF). Findings In regions other than rural India and Venezuela, dementia made the largest contribution to disability (median PAPF 25·1% [IQR 19·2–43·6]). Other substantial contributors were stroke (11·4% [1·8–21·4]), limb impairment (10·5% [5·7–33·8]), arthritis (9·9% [3·2–34·8]), depression (8·3% [0·5–23·0]), eyesight problems (6·8% [1·7–17·6]), and gastrointestinal impairments (6·5% [0·3–23·1]). Associations with chronic diseases accounted for around two-thirds of prevalent disability. When zero inflation was taken into account, between-site differences in disability scores were largely attributable to compositional differences in health and sociodemographic characteristics. Interpretation On the basis of empirical research, dementia, not blindness, is overwhelmingly the most important independent contributor to disability for elderly people in countries with low and middle incomes. Chronic diseases of the brain and mind deserve increased prioritisation. Besides disability, they lead to dependency and present stressful, complex, long-term challenges to carers. Societal costs are enormous. Funding Wellcome Trust; WHO; US Alzheimers Association; Fondo Nacional de Ciencia Y Tecnologia, Consejo de Desarrollo Cientifico Y Humanistico, Universidad Central de Venezuela.

Twelve-month prevalence, severity, and unmet need for treatment of mental disorders in metropolitan China

BACKGROUND Psychiatric epidemiological surveys in China have repeatedly found much lower prevalence estimates than in most other parts of the world. METHOD Face-to-face household interviews of 5201 subjects (2633 in Beijing and 2568 in Shanghai respectively) were conducted from November 2001 to February 2002 using a multistage household probability sampling method. A Chinese version of the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was used for assessment. RESULTS Twelve-month prevalence of any DSM-IV mental disorder in metropolitan China is estimated to be 7.0%, with major depressive disorder (2.0%), specific phobia (1.9%), and intermittent explosive disorder (1.7%) the most common disorders. Of these, 13.9% are classified as serious, 32.6% moderate, and 53.5% mild. Only 3.4% of respondents with any disorder sought treatment within the previous 12 months. CONCLUSIONS Although the general pattern of disorders, risk factors, and unmet need for treatment are similar to those in other countries, a low prevalence of mental disorders is found in metropolitan China. Resolving methodological problems that cause downward bias in estimates, such as stigma-related under-reporting and diagnostic incongruity with a somatopsychic mode of symptom presentation may lead to more accurate and probably higher prevalence estimates in future epidemiological studies. As a low prevalence still translates into an enormous number of people in China, measures are urgently needed to address the huge unmet need for treatment of mental disorders.

The protocols for the 10/66 dementia research group population-based research programme

BackgroundLatin America, China and India are experiencing unprecedentedly rapid demographic ageing with an increasing number of people with dementia. The 10/66 Dementia Research Groups title refers to the 66% of people with dementia that live in developing countries and the less than one tenth of population-based research carried out in those settings. This paper describes the protocols for the 10/66 population-based and intervention studies that aim to redress this imbalance.Methods/designCross-sectional comprehensive one phase surveys have been conducted of all residents aged 65 and over of geographically defined catchment areas in ten low and middle income countries (India, China, Nigeria, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru and Argentina), with a sample size of between 1000 and 3000 (generally 2000). Each of the studies uses the same core minimum data set with cross-culturally validated assessments (dementia diagnosis and subtypes, mental disorders, physical health, anthropometry, demographics, extensive non communicable disease risk factor questionnaires, disability/functioning, health service utilisation, care arrangements and caregiver strain). Nested within the population based studies is a randomised controlled trial of a caregiver intervention for people with dementia and their families (ISRCTN41039907; ISRCTN41062011; ISRCTN95135433; ISRCTN66355402; ISRCTN93378627; ISRCTN94921815). A follow up of 2.5 to 3.5 years will be conducted in 7 countries (China, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Mexico, Peru and Argentina) to assess risk factors for incident dementia, stroke and all cause and cause-specific mortality; verbal autopsy will be used to identify causes of death.DiscussionThe 10/66 DRG baseline population-based studies are nearly complete. The incidence phase will be completed in 2009. All investigators are committed to establish an anonymised file sharing archive with monitored public access. Our aim is to create an evidence base to empower advocacy, raise awareness about dementia, and ensure that the health and social care needs of older people are anticipated and met.

Barriers to mental health treatment: Results from the WHO World Mental Health surveys

BACKGROUND To examine barriers to initiation and continuation of mental health treatment among individuals with common mental disorders. METHOD Data were from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. Representative household samples were interviewed face to face in 24 countries. Reasons to initiate and continue treatment were examined in a subsample (n = 63,678) and analyzed at different levels of clinical severity. RESULTS Among those with a DSM-IV disorder in the past 12 months, low perceived need was the most common reason for not initiating treatment and more common among moderate and mild than severe cases. Women and younger people with disorders were more likely to recognize a need for treatment. A desire to handle the problem on ones own was the most common barrier among respondents with a disorder who perceived a need for treatment (63.8%). Attitudinal barriers were much more important than structural barriers to both initiating and continuing treatment. However, attitudinal barriers dominated for mild-moderate cases and structural barriers for severe cases. Perceived ineffectiveness of treatment was the most commonly reported reason for treatment drop-out (39.3%), followed by negative experiences with treatment providers (26.9% of respondents with severe disorders). CONCLUSIONS Low perceived need and attitudinal barriers are the major barriers to seeking and staying in treatment among individuals with common mental disorders worldwide. Apart from targeting structural barriers, mainly in countries with poor resources, increasing population mental health literacy is an important endeavor worldwide.