Yum K. Kwan

What are the determinants of the location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience

By estimating the effects of the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 29 Chinese regions from 1985 to 1995, we find that large regional market, good infrastructure, and preferential policy had a positive effect but wage cost had a negative effect on FDI. The effect of education was positive but not statistically significant. In addition, there was also a strong self-reinforcing effect of FDI on itself. There was no convergence in the equilibrium FDI stocks of the regions between 1985 and 1995, but there was convergence in the deviations from the equilibrium FDI stocks.

Intellectual property rights protection and endogenous economic growth

The main purpose of the paper is to examine the impact of intellectual property rights (IPR) protection on economic growth and welfare. To achieve this aim, we make use of an expanding-variety-type RD whereas in the case of under-protection, the welfare losses can be substantial. ? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymptotic Bayesian analysis based on a limited information estimator

Abstract We study asymptotic Bayesian analysis based on a limited information estimator, with an unknown partial likelihood function. It is found that the asymptotic distribution of the estimator approximates the posterior distribution, provided that the estimator’s distribution converges uniformly in local neigborhoods around the true parameter value. This provides a Bayesian interpretation to classical limited information procedures, making them available for a semi-parametric Bayesian analysis. Uniform convergence in distribution is essential for such result, as illustrated by examples in which the estimators are pointwise asymptotically normal at every parameter value, but the posterior distributions display discontinuous and possibly non-normal behaviors.

Sectoral Location of FDI in China

This paper investigates the determinants of FDI sectoral allocation in 29 China’s manufacturing sectors from 2000 to 2007. We find that FDI sectoral allocation has a strong self-reinforcing effect. MNCs with ownership advantages tend to invest more in local high productivity sectors. The FDI presence, however, is discouraged in China’s high productivity sectors in which the major market share is dominated by SOEs. We also find that the degree of FDI penetration is higher in sectors that are producing labor-intensive goods and also export-oriented.

How the basic RBC model fails to explain US time series

Abstract By examining the reduced form equations implied by an RBC model this paper shows how it fails in explaining the dynamic characteristics of the US time series using time-domain analysis. In particular, by studying the serial correlation of the residuals of the reduced form and by introducing lagged dependent variables, important propagation mechanisms left out in the model can be clearly discerned and reformations to improve the model can be evaluated.

Rational expectations is not generally valid for econometric models: Evidence from stock market data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.

Stock Price Dynamics of China: What Do the Asset Markets Tell Us About the Chinese Utility Function?

We develop and estimate several variants of consumption-based capital asset pricing models (CCAPMs) and compare their capacity in explaining the stock price dynamics of China. We conclude that adding housing to CCAPM and habit formation models yields no significant benefit in predicting stock returns, but adding housing to recursive utility models does improve predictions. Furthermore, the labor income model cannot help reduce pricing errors, but the collateral constraint model outperforms almost all other models. Some models cannot even defeat the simple autoregressive model in stock return prediction. Overall, the H-recursive utility model has the best prediction performance. Directions for future research are discussed.

Currency Board, Asian Financial Crisis, and the Case for Put Options

The chapter reviews the circumstances under which speculative attacks on the currency board of Hong Kong occurred during the Asian financial turmoil. It is shown that the conventional defense mechanism via interest arbitrage has not functioned properly. An alternative approach of issuing put options to strengthen the currency board is evaluated. We show that the “technical” measures eventually undertaken by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) in September 1998 are functionally equivalent to issuing the put options, thereby providing a natural experiment of this idea. Based on credibility measures extracted from financial market data since the inception of the board in 1983, we find that interest rate arbitrage had been working properly until the rule-bound currency board was eroded by central bank-like, discretionary policies pursued by the HKMA. However, after implementing the put options proposal, which effectively put the HKMA back onto the rule-bound track, interest rate arbitrage appeared to be effective again.

FDI Spatial Spillovers in China

This paper studies FDI spatial spillovers in China. Empirical investigation reveals that, along the spatial dimension, FDI presence tends to generate negative intra-regional spillovers that dominate other potential positive externalities. The direction, magnitude and scope of inter-regional spillovers vary, depending on the spillover channels. Our empirical findings call for a rethinking of policy-driven agglomeration among indigenous firms and MNEs in developing countries.

Local Linkages: The Interdependence of Foreign and Domestic Firms

This paper investigates the interdependence of foreign and domestic firms’ local linkage decisions and the extent to which they respond differently to variations in export intensity and productivity originating from each of the two groups of firms. Our empirical analysis, based on Irish data, uncovers an interesting asymmetric pattern in the local linkage dynamics of foreign and domestic firms. We find that local linkages of domestic firms tend to evolve independently of their foreign counterpart, and that they react almost instantaneously to exogenous events such as increases in export intensity or productivity. Local linkages of foreign firms, by contrast, react gradually to exogenous events and the impact works through the reverberating dynamics of the lagged linkages of both foreign and domestic firms. The Irish experience is instructive to policymakers in emerging markets who are naturally interested in the best way to maximize the value of FDI, in terms of benefits the latter brings about for sustainable economic development.