Yun Shi

The dose–response effect of physical activity on cancer mortality: findings from 71 prospective cohort studies

Background The WHO recommends moderate physical activity to combat the increasing risk of death from chronic diseases. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the association between physical activity and cancer mortality and the WHO recommendations to reduce the latter. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched up until May 2014 for cohort studies examining physical activity and cancer mortality in the general population and cancer survivors. Combined HRs were estimated using fixed-effect or random-effect meta-analysis of binary analysis. Associated HRs with defined increments and recommended levels of recreational physical activity were estimated by two-stage random-effects dose–response meta-analysis. Results A total of 71 cohort studies met the inclusion criteria and were analysed. Binary analyses determined that individuals who participated in the most physical activity had an HR of 0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.87) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.84) for cancer mortality in the general population and among cancer survivors, respectively. There was an inverse non-linear dose–response between the effects of physical activity and cancer mortality. In the general population, a minimum of 2.5 h/week of moderate-intensity activity led to a significant 13% reduction in cancer mortality. Cancer survivors who completed 15 metabolic equivalents of task (MET)-h/week of physical activity had a 27% lower risk of cancer mortality. A greater protective effect occurred in cancer survivors undertaking physical activity postdiagnosis versus prediagnosis, where 15 MET-h/week decreased the risk by 35% and 21%, respectively. Conclusions Our meta-analysis supports that current physical activity recommendations from WHO reduce cancer mortality in both the general population and cancer survivors. We infer that physical activity after a cancer diagnosis may result in significant protection among cancer survivors.

Leisure time physical activity and cancer risk: evaluation of the WHO's recommendation based on 126 high-quality epidemiological studies

Background The WHO has concluded that physical activity reduces the risk of numerous diseases. However, few systemic reviews have been performed to assess the role of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) in lowering the risk of cancer in a dose-dependent manner and furthermore the suitability of recommendation of physical activity by the WHO. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was designed to estimate cancer risk by LTPA in binary comparison and in a dose-dependent manner. MEDLINE and Web of Science were searched up to 30 December 2014 without language restrictions. Reference lists were reviewed for potential articles. Results A total of 126 studies were recruited into the meta-analysis. Overall, the total cancer risk was reduced by 10% in people who undertook the most LTPA as compared with those who did the least. Dose–response meta-analysis indicated that the current WHO recommendation (equal to an average of 10 metabolic equivalents of energy hours per week) induced a 7% (95% CI 5% to 9%) cancer reduction. Moreover, the protective role of LTPA against cancer becomes saturated at 20 metabolic equivalents of energy hours per week, with a relative risk of 0.91 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.93). Subanalyses results based on cancer types showed that LTPA only exhibited significant protection against breast cancer and colorectal cancer. Conclusions Our meta-analysis indicates that the current WHO recommendation of physical activity can result in a 7% reduction in cancer risk, which is mainly attributed to its protective role against breast cancer and colorectal cancer. Furthermore, two-fold of current recommendation level is considered to give its saturated protection against cancer.

Sleep Duration and Cancer Risk: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Prospective Studies

To assess the risk of cancers associated with sleep duration using a meta-analysis of published cohort studies, we performed a comprehensive search using PubMed, Embase and Web of Science through October 2013. We combined hazard ratios (HRs) from individual studies using meta-analysis approaches. A random effect dose-response analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between sleep duration and cancer risk. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were also performed. Publication bias was evaluated using Funnel plots and Beggs test. A total of 13 cohorts from 12 studies were included in this meta-analysis, which included 723,337 participants with 15,156 reported cancer outcomes during a follow-up period ranging from 7.5 to 22 years. The pooled adjusted HRs were 1.06 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.23; P for heterogeneity=0.003) for short sleep duration, 0.91 (95% CI: 0.78, 1.07; P for heterogeneity <0.0001) for long sleep duration. In subgroup analyses stratified by cancer type, long duration of sleep showed an inverse relation with hormone-related cancer (HR=0.79; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.97; P for heterogeneity=0.009) and a greater risk of colorectal cancer (HR=1.29; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.52; P for heterogeneity=0.346). Further meta-analysis on dose-response relationships showed that the relative risks of cancer were 1.00 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.01; P for linear trend=0.9151) for one hour of sleep increment per day, and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.01; P for linear trend=0.7749) for one hour of sleep increment per night. No significant dose-response relationship between sleep duration and cancer was found on non-linearity testing (P=0.5053). Our meta-analysis suggests a positive association between long sleep duration and colorectal cancer, and an inverse association with incidence of hormone related cancers like those in the breast. Studies with larger sample size, longer follow-up times, more cancer types and detailed measure of sleep duration are warranted to confirm these results.

Telomere Length in Peripheral Blood Leukocytes Is Associated with Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Chinese Population

Background Human telomeres, tandem repeats of TTAGGG nucleotides at the ends of chromosomes, are essential for maintaining genomic integrity and stability. Results of previous epidemiologic studies about the association of telomere length with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) have been conflicting. Methods A case-control study was conducted in a Han population in Wuhan, central China. The relative telomere length (RTL) was measured in peripheral blood leukocytes (PBLs) using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in 628 CRC cases and 1,256 age and sex frequency matched cancer-free controls. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression models to evaluate the association between RTL and CRC risk. Results Using median RTL in the controls as the cutoff, individuals with shorter RTL were associated with a significantly increased risk of CRC (adjusted OR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.05–1.55). When participants were further categorized into 3 and 4 groups according to the tertile and quartile RTL values of controls, significant relationships were still observed between shorter RTL and increased CRC risk (OR per tertile = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.00–1.28, P trend = 0.045; OR per quartile = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.03–1.23, P trend = 0.012). In stratified analyses, significant association between shorter RTL and increased CRC risk was found in females, individuals younger than 60 years old, never smokers and never drinkers. Conclusions This study suggested that short telomere length in PBLs was significantly associated with an increased risk of CRC in Chinese Han population. Further validation in large prospective studies and investigation of the biologic mechanisms are warranted.

A hybrid model for predicting the prevalence of schistosomiasis in humans of Qianjiang City, China.

Backgrounds/Objective Schistosomiasis is still a major public health problem in China, despite the fact that the government has implemented a series of strategies to prevent and control the spread of the parasitic disease. Advanced warning and reliable forecasting can help policymakers to adjust and implement strategies more effectively, which will lead to the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Our aim is to explore the application of a hybrid forecasting model to track the trends of the prevalence of schistosomiasis in humans, which provides a methodological basis for predicting and detecting schistosomiasis infection in endemic areas. Methods A hybrid approach combining the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) model to forecast the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the future four years. Forecasting performance was compared between the hybrid ARIMA-NARNN model, and the single ARIMA or the single NARNN model. Results The modelling mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model was 0.1869×10−4, 0.0029, 0.0419 with a corresponding testing error of 0.9375×10−4, 0.0081, 0.9064, respectively. These error values generated with the hybrid model were all lower than those obtained from the single ARIMA or NARNN model. The forecasting values were 0.75%, 0.80%, 0.76% and 0.77% in the future four years, which demonstrated a no-downward trend. Conclusion The hybrid model has high quality prediction accuracy in the prevalence of schistosomiasis, which provides a methodological basis for future schistosomiasis monitoring and control strategies in the study area. It is worth attempting to utilize the hybrid detection scheme in other schistosomiasis-endemic areas including other infectious diseases.

Parkinson’s Disease and Risk of Fracture: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Backgrounds/Objective Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly population. However, epidemiological evidence on the relationship of PD with risk of fracture has not been systematically assessed. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis of prospective studies to explore the association between PD and risk of fracture. Methods PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to February 26, 2014 were searched to identify eligible studies. Random-effects model was used to pool the results. Results Six studies that totally involved 69,387 participants were included for analysis. Overall, PD patients had an increased risk of fracture compared with control subjects (pooled hazard ratio = 2.66, 95% confidence interval: 2.10–3.36). No publication bias was observed across studies and the subgroup as well as sensitivity analysis suggested that the general results were robust. Conclusion The present study suggested that PD is associated with an increased risk of fracture. However, given the limited number and moderate quality of included studies, well-designed prospective cohort studies are required to confirm the findings from this meta-analysis.

Household physical activity and cancer risk: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

Controversial results of the association between household physical activity and cancer risk were reported among previous epidemiological studies. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the relationship of household physical activity and cancer risk quantitatively, especially in dose-response manner. PubMed, Embase, Web of science and the Cochrane Library were searched for cohort or case-control studies that examined the association between household physical activity and cancer risks. Random–effect models were conducted to estimate the summary relative risks (RRs), nonlinear or linear dose–response meta-analyses were performed to estimate the trend from the correlated log RR estimates across levels of household physical activity quantitatively. Totally, 30 studies including 41 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Total cancer risks were reduced 16% among the people with highest household physical activity compared to those with lowest household physical activity (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.76–0.93). The dose-response analyses indicated an inverse linear association between household physical activity and cancer risk. The relative risk was 0.98 (95% CI = 0.97–1.00) for per additional 10 MET-hours/week and it was 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98–0.99) for per 1 hour/week increase. These findings provide quantitative data supporting household physical activity is associated with decreased cancer risk in dose-response effect.

Using a Hybrid Model to Forecast the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans

Background: We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliability of our hybrid model. Methods: We used the ARIMA, NARNN and ARIMA-NARNN models to fit and forecast the annual prevalence of schistosomiasis. The modeling time range included was the annual prevalence from 1956 to 2008 while the testing time range included was from 2009 to 2012. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the model performance. We reconstructed the hybrid model to forecast the annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016. Results: The modeling and testing errors generated by the ARIMA-NARNN model were lower than those obtained from either the single ARIMA or NARNN models. The predicted annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016 demonstrated an initial decreasing trend, followed by an increase. Conclusions: The ARIMA-NARNN model can be well applied to analyze surveillance data for early warning systems for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.

Association between microRNA-27a rs895819 polymorphism and risk of colorectal cancer: A meta-analysis

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common malignancy in the human digestive system. Previous results regarding the association between microRNA-27a rs895819 polymorphisms and CRC risk are controversial. We therefore performed a meta-analysis of seven studies totaling 2230 cases and 2775 controls to systematically evaluate this association. Summary odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using a fixed-effects model. A moderate evidence for the association between mir-27a polymorphism and CRC risk was found under multiple genetic models (dominant model: OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.02-1.29, p = 0.02; recessive model: OR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27-1.76, p <0.001; homozygote model: OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.28-1.83, p <0.001; allele model: OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.11-1.31, p <0.001). Subgroup analysis showed a significant association between mir-27a rs895819 polymorphism and CRC risk among Chinese populations. On the contrary, we found no evidence of association among Caucasian populations due to small samples (p > 0.05). In conclusion, this meta-analysis suggested that rs895819 polymorphism in mir-27a may be a potential genetic risk factor for CRC, particularly in Chinese populations.

Copy-number variation of MCL1 predicts overall survival of non-small-cell lung cancer in a Southern Chinese population.

BCL2L1 and MCL1 are key anti‐apoptotic genes, and critical for cancer progression. The prognostic values of BCL2L1 and MCL1 copy‐number variations (CNVs) in non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remain largely unknown. Somatic CNVs in BCL2L1 and MCL1 genes were tested in tumor tissues from 516 NSCLC patients in southern China; afterward, survival analyses were conducted with overall survival (OS) as outcome. Additionally, the associations between CNVs and mRNA expression levels were explored using data from 986 NSCLC patients in the Cancer Genome Atlas project. It was found that amplifications of BCL2L1 and MCL1 were associated with unfavorable OS of NSCLC, with adjusted hazards ratio of 1.62 (95% confident interval [CI] = 1.10–2.40; P = 0.015) and 1.39 (95% CI = 1.05–1.84; P = 0.020), respectively. Amplifications of MCL1, but not BCL2L1, were related with higher mRNA expression levels of corresponding gene, compared with non‐amplifications (P = 0.005). Interestingly, after incorporating with MCL1 CNV status, clinical variables (age, sex, TNM stage, and surgical approach) showed an improved discriminatory ability to classify OS (area under curve increased from 72.2% to 74.1%; P = 0.042, DeLongs test). Overall, MCL1 CNV might be a prognostic biomarker for NSCLC, and additional investigations are needed to validate our findings.