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A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana

Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis. Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future.

A Severance Tax Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Most states levy severance taxes on the value of natural resources when they are severed or extracted from the ground or subsurface. In Louisiana, severance tax on oil and gas production contributes to the majority of mineral revenue in the state, and over the last decade, has ranged between

Modeling Lost Production in the Gulf of Mexico—I. Redevelopment Economics and Impact Assessment

400 million and

Modeling Lost Production in the Gulf of Mexico—II. Framework and Assumptions

1.1 billion, or between 5 and 9% of annual state revenue. The purpose of this article is to develop a forecast model for severance tax revenue to better understand the severance tax regime and to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. We couple an oil and gas production model with empirical relationships describing historical severance tax receipts to perform the forecast. We demonstrate that oil production correlations are robust, but that in recent years, unconventional gas production from the Haynesville shale has led to a significant departure from historic trends. We estimate that cumulative oil and gas severance tax revenues during 2011–2015 will range from

Modeling Lost Production in the Gulf of Mexico—III. Results and Limitations

1.0 to

Modeling lost production from destroyed platforms in the 2004-2005 Gulf of Mexico hurricane seasons

2.1 billion for oil and

Haynesville Shale Well Performance and Development Potential

1.3–

Economic feasibility of using offshore oil and gas structures in the Gulf of Mexico for platform-based aquaculture

1.9 billion for gas. Louisiana is transforming into a gas-producing state, and more attention needs to be paid to tax design and the impact of exemptions on future severance revenue receipts.

The impact of Hurricanes Gustav and Ike on offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract The oil and gas industry in the Gulf of Mexico has the greatest weather exposure in the world, and is vulnerable to a range of losses that include physical damage, destruction, business interruption, and pollution liability. During the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, a number of offshore facilities, drilling rigs, and pipelines were destroyed and extensively damaged. In total, Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita destroyed 122 structures and severely damaged 76 others. Owners of destroyed assets are faced with a difficult decision: Should the property be abandoned along with its remaining reserves or should the asset be redeveloped? The purpose of this three-part series is to examine the destroyed infrastructure from the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons and the likely contribution this collection of assets would have made to future production in the Gulf of Mexico. In Part 1, we describe the weather risk that operators encounter and review the factors that are involved in redevelopment decisions. The impact of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons on the infrastructure and production in the Gulf of Mexico are summarized.

A review of the feasibility, costs, and benefits of platform-based open ocean aquaculture in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract During the 2004 and 2005 Gulf of Mexico hurricane seasons, hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita destroyed 122 offshore structures and severely damaged 76 others. Most of the destroyed infrastructure was mature assets low on their production curve with limited remaining reserves. These assets are unlikely to meet the economic thresholds to support redevelopment, and in the majority of cases, the production from these structures will be “written off” by owners. In Part 2 of this 3 part series, we develop a model framework to forecast the production and revenue streams associated with the collection of destroyed assets. The general framework of analysis is outlined along with the assumptions employed to value lost production.