Yunquan Zhang

The Short-Term Effect of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Wuhan, China: A Time-Series Study Using a Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model

Less evidence concerning the association between ambient temperature and mortality is available in developing countries/regions, especially inland areas of China, and few previous studies have compared the predictive ability of different temperature indictors (minimum, mean, and maximum temperature) on mortality. We assessed the effects of temperature on daily mortality from 2003 to 2010 in Jiang’an District of Wuhan, the largest city in central China. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear models combined with both non-threshold and double-threshold distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to examine the associations between different temperature indictors and cause-specific mortality. We found a U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality in Wuhan. Double-threshold DLNM with mean temperature performed best in predicting temperature-mortality relationship. Cold effect was delayed, whereas hot effect was acute, both of which lasted for several days. For cold effects over lag 0–21 days, a 1 °C decrease in mean temperature below the cold thresholds was associated with a 2.39% (95% CI: 1.71, 3.08) increase in non-accidental mortality, 3.65% (95% CI: 2.62, 4.69) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 3.87% (95% CI: 1.57, 6.22) increase in respiratory mortality, 3.13% (95% CI: 1.88, 4.38) increase in stroke mortality, and 21.57% (95% CI: 12.59, 31.26) increase in ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality. For hot effects over lag 0–7 days, a 1 °C increase in mean temperature above the hot thresholds was associated with a 25.18% (95% CI: 18.74, 31.96) increase in non-accidental mortality, 34.10% (95% CI: 25.63, 43.16) increase in cardiovascular mortality, 24.27% (95% CI: 7.55, 43.59) increase in respiratory mortality, 59.1% (95% CI: 41.81, 78.5) increase in stroke mortality, and 17.00% (95% CI: 7.91, 26.87) increase in IHD mortality. This study suggested that both low and high temperature were associated with increased mortality in Wuhan, and that mean temperature had better predictive ability than minimum and maximum temperature in the association between temperature and mortality.

Impact of temperature variation on mortality: An observational study from 12 counties across Hubei Province in China

BACKGROUNDnCompared with cold- and heat-related health impacts, the evidence was very limited in assessing the mortality effects of temperature variation (TV) accounting for both intra-day and inter-day changes in temperature.nnnOBJECTIVEnWe used a newly proposed composite indicator of intra-day and inter-day TV and evaluated TV-mortality associations in Hubei, China at the provincial level.nnnMETHODSnDaily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2012 were obtained from 12 urban and rural counties across Hubei Province in China. TV was calculated using the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between mortality and TV, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, relative humidity, public holiday, and day of the week. A meta-analysis was then conducted to pool the county-specific estimates of TV-related mortality effects.nnnRESULTSnA significant positive association was observed between TV and cause-specific mortality (except for respiratory mortality and ischemic heart disease mortality). The effect estimates varied by exposure days, with the highest at 0-7days. Season-stratified analyses showed similar results, while stronger TV-mortality associations were found in warm season than in cold season. The elderly were more susceptible to TV-related mortality effects than younger groups. Some slight differences in effect estimates were also observed in subgroups stratified by gender, education attainment, place of death, and urban/rural areas.nnnCONCLUSIONnOur study strengthened the evidence that temperature variation was an independent risk factor for non-accidental mortality. Some preventive and intervention strategies should be efficiently developed in response to global climate change, so as to minimize public health burden due to unstable weather patterns.

Temperature exposure during pregnancy and birth outcomes: An updated systematic review of epidemiological evidence

Seasonal patterns of birth outcomes have been observed worldwide, and there was increasing evidence that ambient temperature played as a trigger of adverse birth outcomes, such as preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), and stillbirth. To systematically review updated epidemiological evidence about the relationship between temperature exposure during pregnancy and PTB, LBW, and stillbirth, we searched for related studies published in English from electronic databases and references of identified papers. We only included original articles that directly reported the effects of prenatal temperature exposure on birth outcomes. The characteristics and main findings of included studies were examined. A total of 36 epidemiological studies were finally included in this review. Most of these studies focused on PTB and LBW, while less attention has been paid to stillbirth that was relatively rare in the occurrence. Several designs including ecological (e.g., descriptive and time-series) and retrospective cohort studies (e.g., case-crossover and time-to-event) were applied to assess temperature effects on birth outcomes. Temperature metrics and exposure windows varied greatly in these investigations. Exposure to high temperature was generally found to be associated with PTB, LBW, and stillbirth, while several studies also reported the adverse impact of low temperature on birth outcomes of PTB and LBW. Despite no conclusive causality demonstrated, the current evidence for adverse effect on birth outcomes was stronger for heat than for cold. In summary, the evidence linking birth outcomes with ambient temperature was still very limited. Consequently, more related studies are needed worldwide and should be conducted in diversified climate zones, so as to further ascertain the association between temperature and birth outcomes. Future studies should focus on more sophisticated study designs, more accurate estimation of temperature exposure during pregnancy, and more efficient methods to find out the exposure windows, as well as cold-related effects on birth outcomes.

Impact of temperature on mortality in Hubei, China: a multi-county time series analysis

We examined the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, central China, during 2009–2012. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between temperature and mortality. A multivariable meta-analysis was then used to pool the estimates of county-specific mortality effects of extreme cold temperature (1st percentile) and hot temperature (99th percentile). An inverse J-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and mortality at the provincial level. Heat effect occurred immediately and persisted for 2–3 days, whereas cold effect was 1–2 days delayed and much longer lasting. Higher mortality risks were observed among females, the elderly aged over 75 years, persons dying outside the hospital and those with high education attainment, especially for cold effects. Our data revealed some slight differences in heat- and cold- related mortality effects on urban and rural residents. These findings may have important implications for developing locally-based preventive and intervention strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality, especially for those susceptible subpopulations. Also, urbanization should be considered as a potential influence factor when evaluating temperature-mortality association in future researches.

Burden of mortality and years of life lost due to ambient PM10 pollution in Wuhan, China

Ambient particulate matter (PM) has been mainly linked with mortality and morbidity when assessing PM-associated health effects. Up-to-date epidemiologic evidence is very sparse regarding the relation between PM and years of life lost (YLL). The present study aimed to estimate the burden of YLL and mortality due to ambient PM pollution. Individual records of all registered deaths and daily data on PM10 and meteorology during 2009-2012 were obtained in Wuhan, central China. Using a time-series study design, we applied generalized additive model to assess the short-term association of 10-μg/m3 increase in PM10 with daily YLL and mortality, adjusting for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature, relative humidity, public holiday, and day of the week. A linear-no-threshold dose-response association was observed between daily ambient PM10 and mortality outcomes. PM10 pollution along lag 0-1 days was found to be mostly strongly associated with mortality and YLL. The effects of PM10 on cause-specific mortality and YLL showed generally similar seasonal patterns, with stronger associations consistently occurring in winter and/or autumn. Compared with males and younger persons, females and the elderly suffered more significantly from both increased YLL and mortality due to ambient PM10 pollution. Stratified analyses by education level (0-6 and 7xa0+xa0years) demonstrated great mortality impact on both subgroups, whereas only low-educated persons were strongly affected by PM10-associated burden of YLL. Our study confirmed that short-term PM10 exposure was linearly associated with significant increases in both mortality incidence and years of life lost. Given the non-threshold adverse effects on mortality burden, the on-going efforts to reduce particulate air pollution would substantially benefit public health in China.

Short-Term Effects of Fine Particulate Matter and Temperature on Lung Function among Healthy College Students in Wuhan, China

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM) has been associated with impaired lung function, but the effect of temperature on lung function and the potential interaction effect between PM and temperature remain uncertain. To estimate the short-term effects of PM2.5 combined with temperature on lung function, we measured the daily peak expiratory flow (PEF) in a panel of 37 healthy college students in four different seasons. Meanwhile, we also monitored daily concentrations of indoor and outdoor PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm), ambient temperature and relative humidity of the study area, where the study participants lived and attended school. Associations of air pollutants and temperature with lung function were assessed by generalized estimating equations (GEEs). A 10 μg/m3 increase of indoor PM2.5 was associated with a change of −2.09 L/min in evening PEF (95%CI: −3.73 L/min–−0.51 L/min) after adjusting for season, height, gender, temperature and relative humidity. The changes of −2.17 L/min (95%CI: −3.81 L/min– −0.52 L/min) and −2.18 L/min (95%CI: −3.96 L/min–−0.41 L/min) in evening PEF were also observed after adjusting for outdoor SO2 and NO2 measured by Environmental Monitoring Center 3 kilometers away, respectively. An increase in ambient temperature was found to be associated with a decrease in lung function and our results revealed a small but significant antagonistic interactive effect between PM2.5 and temperature. Our findings suggest that ambient PM2.5 has an acute adverse effect on lung function in young healthy adults, and that temperature also plays an important role.

Spatiotemporal Changes in Fine Particulate Matter Pollution and the Associated Mortality Burden in China between 2015 and 2016

In recent years, research on the spatiotemporal distribution and health effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been conducted in China. However, the limitations of different research scopes and methods have led to low comparability between regions regarding the mortality burden of PM2.5. A kriging model was used to simulate the distribution of PM2.5 in 2015 and 2016. Relative risk (RR) at a specified PM2.5 exposure concentration was estimated with an integrated exposure–response (IER) model for different causes of mortality: lung cancer (LC), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was adopted to estimate deaths attributed to PM2.5. 72.02% of cities experienced decreases in PM2.5 from 2015 to 2016. Due to the overall decrease in the PM2.5 concentration, the total number of deaths decreased by approximately 10,658 per million in 336 cities, including a decrease of 1400, 1836, 6312 and 1110 caused by LC, IHD, stroke and COPD, respectively. Our results suggest that the overall PM2.5 concentration and PM2.5-related deaths exhibited decreasing trends in China, although air quality in local areas has deteriorated. To improve air pollution control strategies, regional PM2.5 concentrations and trends should be fully considered.

Association of diurnal temperature range with daily mortality in England and Wales: A nationwide time-series study

BACKGROUNDnDiurnal temperature range (DTR) reflects within-day temperature variability and is closely associated with climate change. In comparison to temperature extremes, up-to-date DTR-health evidence at the regional and national scales has been still very limited worldwide, especially in Europe.nnnOBJECTIVESnThis study aimed to provide nationwide estimates for DTR-associated effects on mortality, and explore whether season and regional-level characteristics modify DTR-mortality relation in United Kingdom.nnnMETHODSnFourteen-year time-series data on weather and mortality were collected from 10 regions in England and Wales during 1993-2006, including 7,573,716 total deaths. A quasi-Poisson regression incorporated with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate region-specific DTR-mortality relationships. Then, a multivariate meta-analysis was employed to derive the pooled DTR effects at the national level. Also, the modifying effects of some regional characteristics (e.g., geographical and climatological) were examined by conducting multivariate meta-regression.nnnRESULTSnA non-linear DTR-mortality relationship was identified in UK. At the national level, increasing DTR raised the mortality risk observably when DTR exposure was below 25th percentile or above 90th percentile of DTR distribution, with an intermediate risk plateau indicating no associations. Extremely high DTR exhibited greater adverse effect estimates in hot season compared with in cold and transitional season, whereas entirely different association patterns were observed for the season-specific effects of extremely low DTR. In addition to season, regional latitudes, average temperature and humidity were also found to significantly modify DTR-mortality relationship.nnnCONCLUSIONSnOur study added strong evidence that extremely high DTR increased short-term mortality, whereas the effects of extremely low DTR exhibited entirely different seasonal patterns. Also, mortality vulnerability to DTR extremes varied greatly by regional latitudes and climate conditions.

Diurnal Temperature Range in Relation to Daily Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an important meteorological indicator associated with global climate change, and has been linked with mortality and morbidity in previous studies. To date, however, little evidence has been available regarding the association of DTR with years of life lost (YLL). This study aimed to evaluate the DTR-related burden on both YLL and mortality. We collected individual records of all registered deaths and daily meteorological data in Wuhan, central China, between 2009 and 2012. For the whole population, every 1 °C increase in DTR at a lag of 0–1 days was associated with an increase of 0.65% (95% CI: 0.08–1.23) and 1.42 years (−0.88–3.72) for mortality and YLL due to non-accidental deaths, respectively. Relatively stronger DTR-mortality/YLL associations were found for cardiovascular deaths. Subgroup analyses (stratified by gender, age, and education level) showed that females, the elderly (75+ years old), and those with higher education attainment (7+ years) suffered more significantly from both increased YLL and mortality due to large DTR. Our study added additional evidence that short-term exposure to large DTR was associated with increased burden of premature death using both mortality incidence and YLL.

Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China

BackgroundThere was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems.MethodsWe developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May–September) in Wuhan, China during 2003–2010.ResultsHeat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperatureu2009≥u200999.0th percentile and durationu2009≥u20093xa0days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (ageu2009≥u200965) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting.ConclusionThese findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.