Yvonne Tsang

Tracer transport in a stochastic continuum model of fractured media

A stochastic continuum model of a fractured medium conditioned on a specific set of field data is developed. Both the more conductive fractures and the less permeable matrix are generated within the framework of a single-continuum stochastic model based on nonparametric indicator geostatistics. In the stochastic model the fracture zones are distinguished from the matrix by imposing a long-range correlation structure for a small fraction (the highest approximately 11%) of the hydraulic conductivity in the preferred planes of fracture zones. Results of flow arid transport simulation in three dimensions (3D) are used to illustrate the large spatial variability of point measurements, but for spatially integrated quantities the variability is reduced and results become less sensitive to correlation structure. Therefore it is suggested that spatially integrated quantities may be a more appropriate choice for predicting flow and transport in a strongly heterogeneous medium in that they are more commensurate with the level of our ignorance of the site. The issue of spatial variability giving rise to uncertainty in the site characterization of a heterogeneous medium and the prediction of transport results is also addressed. Simulations are carried out for 3D transport from point tracer sources at hundreds of locations in the medium. The breakthrough curve from each point source release is characterized by two parameters: the mean transport velocity and the dispersion coefficient. The results are presented as a statistical distribution of the transport parameters, thus quantifying the uncertainty in predicting flow and transport based on a limited amount of site characterization data.

Modeling studies and analysis of seepage into drifts at Yucca mountain

Abstract An important issue for the long-term performance of underground nuclear waste repositories is the rate of water seepage into the waste emplacement drifts. A prediction of the seepage rate is particularly complicated for the potential repository site at Yucca Mountain, NV, which is located in a thick sequence of unsaturated, fractured tuffs. Underground openings in unsaturated media might act as capillary barriers, diverting water around them. In the present work, we study the potential rates of seepage into drifts as a function of predicted percolation flux at Yucca Mountain, based on a stochastic model of the fractured rock mass in the drift vicinity. A variety of flow scenarios are considered, assuming estimated present-day and predicted future climate conditions. We show that the heterogeneity in the flow domain is a key factor controlling seepage rates, since it causes channelized flow and local ponding in the unsaturated flow field. The rates of seepage are related in a complex non-linear manner to the rock properties, the size and shape of the drift, the degree of heterogeneity, and the assumed percolation scenario.

Predictions and observations of the thermal–hydrological conditions in the Single Heater Test

Abstract The Single Heater Test (SHT) is one of two in-situ thermal tests included in the site characterization program for the potential underground nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical processes in the fractured rock mass around the heater were monitored by numerous sensors emplaced among 30 boreholes. Periodic active testing of cross-hole radar tomography, neutron logging, electrical resistivity tomography, and interference air permeability tests probed the change of moisture content in the rock mass. Thermal–hydrological processes in the SHT have been simulated using a 3-D numerical model and compared to the monitored data. The good agreement between the temperature data and simulated results indicates that the thermal–hydrological responses of the SHT in the 9 months of heating are well-represented by the coupled thermal–hydrological numerical model. The dominant heat transfer process is by conduction and the signature of vapor and liquid counter flow is subtle in the temperature data. The simulated result of a dry-out zone of about 1 m (at the end of the heating phase) around the heater hole, and a condensation zone of increased liquid saturation outside of the dry-out zone, is consistent with the radar tomography and air permeability data. Tomography data and post-test laboratory measurements indicate that the moisture content is larger below than above the heater horizon, suggesting gravity drainage of condensate in the fractures. Model studies show that gravity drainage occurs in simulations using the dual permeability conceptual model, but is absent in the effective-continuum model, where matrix and fractures are required to be in thermodynamic equilibrium at all times.

Hydrologic issues associated with nuclear waste repositories

Significant progress in hydrology, especially in subsurface flow and solute transport, has been made over the last 35 years because of sustained interest in underground nuclear waste repositories. The present paper provides an overview of the key hydrologic issues involved, and to highlight advances in their understanding and treatment because of these efforts. The focus is not on the development of radioactive waste repositories and their safety assessment, but instead on the advances in hydrologic science that have emerged from such studies. Work and results associated with three rock types, which are being considered to host the repositories, are reviewed, with a different emphasis for each rock type. The first rock type is fractured crystalline rock, for which the discussion will be mainly on flow and transport in saturated fractured rock. The second rock type is unsaturated tuff, for which the emphasis will be on flow from the shallow subsurface through the unsaturated zone to the repository. The third rock type is clay-rich formations, whose permeability is very low in an undisturbed state. In this case, the emphasis will be on hydrologic issues that arise from mechanical and thermal disturbances; i.e., on the relevant coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes. The extensive research results, especially those from multiyear large-scale underground research laboratory investigations, represent a rich body of information and data that can form the basis for further development in the related areas of hydrologic research.

Site characterization of the Yucca Mountain disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste

Abstract This paper summarizes the investigations conducted to characterize the geologic barrier of the Yucca Mountain disposal system. Site characterization progressed through (1) non-intrusive evaluation and borehole completions to determine stratigraphy for site identification; (2) exploration from the surface through well testing to evaluate the repository feasibility; (3) underground exploration to study coupled processes to evaluate repository suitability; and (4) reporting of experimental conclusions to support the repository compliance phase. Some of the scientific and technical challenges encountered included the evolution from a small preconstruction characterization program with much knowledge to be acquired during construction of the repository to a large characterization program with knowledge acquired prior to submission of the license application for construction authorization in June 2008 (i.e., the evolution from a preconstruction characterization program costing

Uncertainties in coupled thermal-hydrological processes associated with the drift scale test at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Understanding thermally driven coupled hydrological, mechanical, and chemical processes in unsaturated fractured tuff is essential for evaluating the performance of the potential radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The Drift Scale Test (DST), intended for acquiring such an understanding of these processes, has generated a huge volume of temperature and moisture redistribution data. Sophisticated thermal-hydrological (TH) conceptual models have yielded a good fit between simulation results and those measured data. However, some uncertainties in understanding the TH processes associated with the DST still exist. This paper evaluates these uncertainties and provides quantitative estimates of the range of these uncertainties. Of particular interest for the DST are the uncertainties resulting from the unmonitored loss of vapor through an open bulkhead of the test. There was concern that the outcome from the test might have been significantly altered by these losses. Using alternative conceptual models, we illustrate that predicted mean temperatures from the DST are within 1 degrees C of the measured mean temperatures through the first 2 years of heating. The simulated spatial and temporal evolution of drying and condensation fronts is found to be qualitatively consistent with measured saturation data. Energy and mass balance computation shows that no more than 13% of the input energy is lost because of vapor leaving the test domain through the bulkhead. The change in average saturation in fractures is also relatively small. For a hypothetical situation in which no vapor is allowed to exit through the bulkhead, the simulated average fracture saturation is not qualitatively different enough to be discerned by measured moisture redistribution data. This leads us to conclude that the DST, despite the uncertainties associated with open field testing, has provided an excellent understanding of the TH processes.

Modeling seepage into heated waste emplacement tunnels in unsaturated fractured rock

Predicting the amount of water that may seep into waste emplacement tunnels (drifts) is important for assessing the performance of the proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The repository will be located in thick, partially saturated fractured tuff that-for the first several hundred years after emplacement-will be heated to above-boiling temperatures as a result of heat generation from the decay of radioactive waste. Heating of rock water to above-boiling conditions induces water saturation changes and perturbs water fluxes that affect the potential for water seepage into drifts. In this paper, we describe numerical analyses of the coupled thermal-hydrological (TH) processes in the vicinity of waste emplacement drifts, evaluate the potential of seepage during the heating phase of the repository, and discuss the implications for the performance of the site. In addition to the capillary barrier at the rock-drift interface-independent of the thermal conditions-a second barrier exists to downward percolation at above-boiling conditions. This barrier is caused by vaporization of water in the fractured rock overlying the repository. A TOUGH2 dual-permeability simulation model was developed to analyze the combined effect of these two barriers; it accounts for all relevant TH processes in response to heating, while incorporating the capillary barrier condition at the drift wall. Model results are presented for a variety of simulation cases that cover the expected variability and uncertainty of relevant rock properties and boundary conditions.

Modeling of thermally driven hydrological processes in partially saturated fractured rock

Modeling of Thermally Driven Hydrological Processes in Partially Saturated Fractured Rock Y. W. Tsang, J. T. Birkholzer, and S. Mukhopadhyay Earth Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California Berkeley, California, U. S. A.

Effect of heterogeneity in fracture permeability on the potential for liquid seepage into a heated emplacement drift of the potential repository

A numerical model was used to investigate the effect of spatial variability in fracture permeability on liquid seepage and moisture distribution in the vicinity of a waste emplacement drift in the unsaturated zone (UZ) of Yucca Mountain. The model is based on a two-dimensional, cross-sectional, dual-permeability model of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain and uses a stochastic approach to investigate the effect of small-scale heterogeneous features. The studies were conducted using one uniform fracture permeability case, three realizations of stochastically generated fracture permeability, one discrete permeability feature case, and one increased ambient liquid flux case. In all cases, the models predict that completely dry drift conditions will develop above and below the drift in 10-100 years and remain dry for 1000-2000 years. During this period, the models predict no seepage into drifts, although liquid flux above the drifts and within the drift pillars may increase by up to two orders of magnitude above ambient flux. This is because the heat released by the emplaced waste is sufficient to vaporize liquid flux of one to two orders of magnitude higher than present-day ambient flux for over 1000 years. The results also show that unsaturated zone thermal-hydrological (TH) models with uniform layer permeability can adequately predict the evolution of seepage and moisture distribution in the rock mass surrounding the repository drifts. The models further show that although variability in fracture permeability may focus and enhance liquid flow in regions of enhanced liquid saturation (due to condensation above the drifts), vaporization and vapor diffusion can maintain a dry environment within the drifts for thousands of years.

Analysis of Stress and Moisture Induced Changes in Fractured Rock Permeability at the Yucca Mountain Drift Scale Test

Abstract This paper presents a coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical analysis of a large-scale underground heater test conducted in unsaturated fractured welded tuff at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Key processes in this study are thermal-hydrological (TH) changes in fracture moisture content and thermal-mechanical (TM) changes in fracture aperture, which both contribute to changes in local fracture-permeability. The soundness of the modeling approach and in particular the model for thermal-mechanical induced changes in fracture permeability is demonstrated through good agreement between simulated and measured changes in air-permeability in several boreholes at DST. This shows that a continuum modeling approach is appropriate and indicates that fracture opening/closure caused by changes in fracture normal stress is the dominating mechanism for TM-induced changes in permeability at the site.