Yvonne van Mourik

Prevalence and underlying causes of dyspnoea in older people: a systematic review

BACKGROUND chronic dyspnoea is common in older people and is often of cardiac or pulmonary aetiology. Information on the exact prevalence and distribution of underlying causes is scarce. Our aim was to review the literature on prevalence and underlying causes of dyspnoea in the older population. METHODS two MEDLINE searches were conducted: the first on studies on the prevalence of dyspnoea in older persons aged ≥65 years using the Medical Research Council (MRC) dyspnoea scale and the second on the underlying causes of dyspnoea in this population. Quality assessment was performed for all included studies. Random effects models based on the logit transformed prevalences were used to calculate pooled prevalence with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS a total of 21 articles from 20 different populations reported the prevalence in the general older population with a median sample size of 600 (Interquartile range 262-1289). The pooled prevalence was 36% (95% CI: 27-47%) for an MRC of ≥2, 16% (95% CI: 12-21%) for an MRC of ≥3 and 4% (95% CI: 2-9%) for an MRC of ≥4. Prevalence rates were higher in women than in men. Only one article investigated the underlying causes of dyspnoea in older persons; in 70% of these patients, the dyspnoea was considered to be of cardiac or pulmonary origin. CONCLUSION dyspnoea is very common in older people, but estimates vary considerably between studies. Only one study describes the underlying causes.

Unrecognized Heart Failure and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Frail Elderly Detected Through a Near-Home Targeted Screening Strategy

Background: Reduced exercise tolerance and dyspnea are common in older people, and heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are the main causes. We want to determine the prevalence of previously unrecognized HF, COPD, and other chronic diseases in frail older people using a near-home targeted screening strategy. Methods: Community-dwelling frail persons aged ≥65 years underwent a 2-step screening strategy. First, they received a questionnaire inquiring about dyspnea and exercise tolerance. Those with exercise intolerance and/or dyspnea were invited to visit their primary care physicians office for a screening program, including medical history taking, physical examination, blood tests, electrocardiography, spirometry, and echocardiography. The final diagnosis of every patient was determined by a panel consisting of 3 physicians. Results: Of the 570 elderly who filled out the questionnaire, 395 (69%) had reduced exercise tolerance or dyspnea. Of these, 389 underwent the screening program: 127 (33.5%, 95% confidence interval, 28.9–38.4%) were newly diagnosed with HF (mainly HF with a preserved ejection fraction [23.5%]), and previously unrecognized COPD was detected in 16.8% (95% confidence interval, 13.4–20.9%). In total, 165 patients (43.9%) received a new diagnosis of either HF, COPD, or both. Other new diagnoses (in 32.7% of the screening program patients) included atrial fibrillation (1.8%), valvular disease (21.4%), (persisting) asthma (3.1%), anemia (12.7%), and thyroid disease (0.6%). No clear explanation for the complaints of 47 patients (12.2%) was found using our strategy. Conclusion: Unrecognized chronic diseases might be detected in community-dwelling frail elderly using a near-home screening strategy that is simple to implement. It remains to be proven, however, whether optimizing treatment of the newly detected diagnoses in this fragile population with multimorbidities and polypharmacy improves quality of life and reduces morbidity and mortality.

Development and validation of a model to predict the risk of exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Purpose Prediction models for exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are scarce. Our aim was to develop and validate a new model to predict exacerbations in patients with COPD. Patients and methods The derivation cohort consisted of patients aged 65 years or over, with a COPD diagnosis, who were followed up over 24 months. The external validation cohort consisted of another cohort of COPD patients, aged 50 years or over. Exacerbations of COPD were defined as symptomatic deterioration requiring pulsed oral steroid use or hospitalization. Logistic regression analysis including backward selection and shrinkage were used to develop the final model and to adjust for overfitting. The adjusted regression coefficients were applied in the validation cohort to assess calibration of the predictions and calculate changes in discrimination applying C-statistics. Results The derivation and validation cohort consisted of 240 and 793 patients with COPD, of whom 29% and 28%, respectively, experienced an exacerbation during follow-up. The final model included four easily assessable variables: exacerbations in the previous year, pack years of smoking, level of obstruction, and history of vascular disease, with a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.82). Predictions were well calibrated in the validation cohort, with a small loss in discrimination potential (C-statistic 0.66 [95% CI 0.61–0.71]). Conclusion Our newly developed prediction model can help clinicians to predict the risk of future exacerbations in individual patients with COPD, including those with mild disease.

COPD detected with screening: Impact on patient management and prognosis

It is uncertain whether screening of older persons for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is worthwhile because the effects on patient management and prognosis are unknown. We aimed to assess the short-term consequences of detecting COPD in frail elderly subjects with dyspnoea, considering pulmonary drug use, hospitalisations and all-cause mortality. Community-dwelling frail elderly subjects, aged 65 years and older, with dyspnoea, participating in a screening study on COPD and heart failure were included. Final diagnoses were assigned by an expert panel based on all data from the screening strategy, including spirometry. Follow-up data were collected from the general practitioners. Of the 386 patients, 84 (21.8%) were received a new diagnosis of COPD. Overall, changes in pulmonary drug prescription during 6 months of follow-up were infrequent (n = 53, 13.7%; among new cases of COPD, 15 (17.9%) out of 84). Of all participants, 25.9% were hospitalised in the first year of follow-up, with the highest rate in patients with newly detected COPD (32.1%). Many new cases of COPD could be detected by screening frail elderly subjects with dyspnoea, but the impact on patient management seems limited. Our study underlines the importance of obtaining follow-up data to assess the true impact of a (screen-detected) diagnosis of COPD on patient management and outcome. Follow-up data are important when assessing the true impact of a new diagnosis of COPD on management and outcomes http://ow.ly/wVL0P

Triage of frail elderly with reduced exercise tolerance in primary care (TREE). a clustered randomized diagnostic study

BackgroundExercise reduced tolerance and breathlessness are common in the elderly and can result in substantial loss in functionality and health related quality of life. Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are common underlying causes, but can be difficult to disentangle due to overlap in symptomatology. In addition, other potential causes such as obesity, anaemia, renal dysfunction and thyroid disorders may be involved.We aim to assess whether screening of frail elderly with reduced exercise tolerance leads to high detection rates of HF, COPD, or alternative diagnoses, and whether detection of these diseases would result in changes in patient management and increase in both functionality and quality of life.Methods/DesignA cluster randomized diagnostic trial. Primary care practices are randomized to the diagnostic-treatment strategy (screening) or care as usual.Patient population: Frail (defined as having three or more chronic or vitality threatening diseases and/or receiving five or more drugs chronically during the last year) community-dwelling persons aged 65 years and older selected from the electronic medical files of the participating general practitioners. Those with reduced exercise tolerance or moderate to severe dyspnoea (≥2 score on the Medical Research Counsel dyspnoea scale) are included in the study.The diagnostic screening in the intervention group includes history taking, physical examination, electrocardiography, spirometry, blood tests, and echocardiography. Subsequently, participants with new diagnoses will be managed according to clinical guidelines. Participants in the control arm receive care as usual. All participants fill out health status and other relevant questionnaires at baseline and after 6 months of follow-up.DiscussionThis study will generate information on the yield of screening for previously unrecognized HF, COPD and other chronic diseases in frail elderly with reduced exercise tolerance and/or exercise induced dyspnoea. The cluster randomized comparison will reveal whether this yield will result in subsequent improvements in functional health and/or health related quality of life.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01148719

A nomogram was developed to enhance the use of multinomial logistic regression modeling in diagnostic research.

OBJECTIVES We developed a nomogram to facilitate the interpretation and presentation of results from multinomial logistic regression models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We analyzed data from 376 frail elderly with complaints of dyspnea. Potential underlying disease categories were heart failure (HF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the combination of both (HF and COPD), and any other outcome (other). A nomogram for multinomial model was developed to depict the relative importance of each predictor and to calculate the probability for each disease category for a given patient. Additionally, model performance of the multinomial regression model was assessed. RESULTS Prevalence of HF and COPD was 14% (n = 54), HF 24% (n = 90), COPD 20% (n = 75), and Other 42% (n = 157). The relative importance of the individual predictors varied across these disease categories or was even reversed. The pairwise C statistics ranged from 0.75 (between HF and Other) to 0.96 (between HF and COPD and Other). The nomogram can be used to rank the disease categories from most to least likely within each patient or to calculate the predicted probabilities. CONCLUSIONS Our new nomogram is a useful tool to present and understand the results of a multinomial regression model and could enhance the applicability of such models in daily practice.

Opportunistic screening for heart failure with natriuretic peptides in patients with atrial fibrillation: a meta-analysis of individual participant data of four screening studies

Objective Heart failure (HF) often coexists in atrial fibrillation (AF) but is frequently unrecognised due to overlapping symptomatology. Furthermore, AF can cause elevated natriuretic peptide levels, impairing its diagnostic value for HF detection. We aimed to assess the prevalence of previously unknown HF in community-dwelling patients with AF, and to determine the diagnostic value of the amino-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) for HF screening in patients with AF. Methods Individual participant data from four HF-screening studies in older community-dwelling persons were combined. Presence or absence of HF was in each study established by an expert panel following the criteria of the European Society of Cardiology. We performed a two-stage patient-level meta-analysis to calculate traditional diagnostic indices. Results Of the 1941 individuals included in the four studies, 196 (10.1%) had AF at baseline. HF was uncovered in 83 (43%) of these 196 patients with AF, versus 381 (19.7%) in those without AF at baseline. Median NTproBNP levels of patients with AF with and without HF were 744 pg/mL and 211 pg/mL, respectively. At the cut-point of 125 pg/mL, sensitivity was 93%, specificity 35%, and positive and negative predictive values 51% and 86%, respectively. Only 23% of all patients with AF had an NTproBNP level below the 125 pg/mL cut-point, with still a 13% prevalence of HF in this group. Conclusions With a prevalence of nearly 50%, unrecognised HF is common among community-dwelling patients with AF. Given the high prior change, natriuretic peptides are diagnostically not helpful, and straightforward echocardiography seems to be the preferred strategy for HF screening in patients with AF.

Efficient selective screening for heart failure in elderly men and women from the community: A diagnostic individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Prevalence of undetected heart failure in older individuals is high in the community, with patients being at increased risk of morbidity and mortality due to the chronic and progressive nature of this complex syndrome. An essential, yet currently unavailable, strategy to pre-select candidates eligible for echocardiography to confirm or exclude heart failure would identify patients earlier, enable targeted interventions and prevent disease progression. The aim of this study was therefore to develop and validate such a model that can be implemented clinically. Methods and results Individual patient data from four primary care screening studies were analysed. From 1941 participants >60 years old, 462 were diagnosed with heart failure, according to criteria of the European Society of Cardiology heart failure guidelines. Prediction models were developed in each cohort followed by cross-validation, omitting each of the four cohorts in turn. The model consisted of five independent predictors; age, history of ischaemic heart disease, exercise-related shortness of breath, body mass index and a laterally displaced/broadened apex beat, with no significant interaction with sex. The c-statistic ranged from 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.76) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) at cross-validation and the calibration was reasonable with Observed/Expected ratios ranging from 0.86 to 1.15. The clinical model improved with the addition of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide with the c-statistic increasing from 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.81) to 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.92) at cross-validation. Conclusion Easily obtainable patient characteristics can select older men and women from the community who are candidates for echocardiography to confirm or refute heart failure.

COPD-screening bij ouderen heeft weinig effect

SamenvattingBertens LCM, Reitsma JB, Van Mourik Y, Lammers JWJ, Moons KGM,Hoes AW, Rutten FH. COPD-screening bij ouderen heeft weinig effect.Huisarts Wet 2015;58(5):242-4.DoelNagaan of een screening op COPD bij thuiswonende kwetsbare ouderen met klachten van kortademigheid of verminderd inspanningsvermogen zinvol zou kunnen zijn. Daartoe bepaalden we het medicatiegebruik, het aantal ziekenhuisopnames en de sterfte onder patiënten bij wie de screening leidde tot een eerste diagnose COPD.MethodeEen panel van deskundigen bepaalde de diagnose op basis van alle screeningsgegevens, inclusief spirometrie. Follow-upgegevens verzamelden we via de deelnemende huisartsen.ResultatenDe screening werd uitgevoerd bij 386 oudere huisartspatiënten met kortademigheid of inspanningstolerantie. Bij 84 (21,8%) patiënten leidde de screening tot een niet eerder gestelde diagnose COPD. Van deze 84 waren er 15 (17,9%) binnen zes maanden na de diagnose gestart met inhalatiemedicatie of ze hadden hun bestaande medicatie aangepast, en waren er 27 (32,1%) binnen twaalf maanden opgenomen in een ziekenhuis. In de groep bij wie de screening geen COPD had aangetoond, lag dit laatste percentage significant lager (22,9%). De mortaliteit was in beide groepen vergelijkbaar.ConclusieDoor kwetsbare ouderen te screenen kunnen veel nieuwe gevallen van COPD worden ontdekt. De screening heeft echter weinig consequenties voor de daaropvolgende behandeling. Een mogelijke verklaring is dat patiënten die niet zelf met hun klachten naar de huisarts stappen, waarschijnlijk toch al minder gemotiveerd zijn voor behandeling.