Zeynep Önder

High inflation and returns on residential real estate: evidence from Turkey

This study examines the hedging behaviour of real estate investment in a high inflationary environment. The hypothesis that the real estate investment hedges both expected and unexpected inflation is tested. The returns of investment on residential apartments in several neighbourhoods in the capital of Turkey are used in the analysis. Expected inflation is measured by three proxies. It is found that in a high inflationary environment, real estate investment does not provide hedge against inflation. A reverse causality between returns on real estate and changes in expected inflation is not observed. However, a relationship between real returns and changes in inflationary expectations seem to be different in relatively low and relatively high income neighbourhoods.This study examines the hedging behaviour of real estate investment in a high inflationary environment. The hypothesis that the real estate investment hedges both expected and unexpected inflation is tested. The returns of investment on residential apartments in several neighbourhoods in the capital of Turkey are used in the analysis. Expected inflation is measured by three proxies. It is found that in a high inflationary environment, real estate investment does not provide hedge against inflation. A reverse causality between returns on real estate and changes in expected inflation is not observed. However, a relationship between real returns and changes in inflationary expectations seem to be different in relatively low and relatively high income neighbourhoods.

Sources of volatility in stock returns in emerging markets

In this study, the short-term fluctuations in the monthly returns on composite indexes of 17 emerging markets affected by the financial crises in the late 1990s and 2000 are decomposed with vector autoregressive estimates. The results are compared to the behaviour of variation in returns in developed markets. Three different models are estimated for each market. Due to first order autocorrelations, lagged returns contribute significantly to return volatility in emerging markets. Decomposition of variances indicates that dividend yield and interest rate are determining factors of volatility, but at varying degrees in different emerging markets. However, the role of dividend yield is not as strong as it is in the developed markets as efficient markets hypothesis would imply. In some cases, exchange rates significantly influence market volatility. Fluctuations in the world portfolio return have a small effect on return volatility in national markets. However, there are significant differences across all emerging markets that point to differences in market structures and particular conditions in each country. Significant contributions of interest rates, exchange rates and inflation imply the role of monetary and fiscal policy as precedents of financial crises.

Liquidity and price volatility of cross-listed French stocks

The changes in the volatility and liquidity of French stocks are examined before and after their cross-listing on the German electronic market, the Xetra. The results are mixed in terms of the change in liquidity and volatility of stocks after cross-listing. It is found that for many stocks volatility of stock prices increases and liquidity declines after cross-listing. Furthermore, similar results are obtained when market volatility in the Paris Bourse is controlled for. These results suggest the migration of orders to the Xetra and the deterioration of the quality of the Paris Bourse with the cross listing of French stocks on the German market, especially for those stocks that are continuously traded on the Xetra. These results seem to be against the integration of the French and German markets during the period analysed in this study. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the trading scheme and the characteristics of the stock should be considered in examining the cross-listing effects.

Political Connection, Bank Credits and Growth: Evidence from Turkey

The pervasive existence of government‐owned banks in emerging economies is often justified by their provision of access to credit in remote and underdeveloped regions that are ignored by private banks. This paper analyses whether credits provided by government‐owned and private banks have a significant role in regional growth and whether this role changes in politically connected areas in Turkey. Our findings imply that private banks significantly improve the economic well‐being in all Turkish provinces regardless of their development level or their political connection with the ruling party. However, credits by government‐owned banks are found to be positively related to the per capita growth rate only in the less developed provinces that are advocates of the ruling political party and also developed but not politically connected provinces. These results suggest that government‐owned bank credits, as implied by the political view, are used for funding politically desirable projects or politically connected borrowers.

Who pays the most cigarette tax in Turkey

Background Although higher taxation of tobacco products is considered the most cost-effective tobacco control policy, its negative impact on low-income groups is one of the arguments used against it. Objective To investigate the impact of current excise taxes and the increases of excise taxes on tobacco and household expenditures by expenditure tertiles, and examine who pays excise taxes in general. Method Impacts of excise taxes on cigarettes are examined with a budgetary approach. We first estimate the price elasticity of cigarettes by expenditure tertiles using data from the 2003 Turkish Household Expenditure Survey, the most recent data set covering detailed tobacco product information relevant to our analysis. We then conduct a number of simulation analyses by increasing the excise taxes per pack of cigarettes and examine the impacts of these increases on household expenditures. Finally, as excise tax increases, we predict the total excise tax paid by households in different expenditure tertiles and compare the concentration curve of excise tax spending with the Lorenz curve showing the cumulative share of total household expenditures by expenditure tertiles. We estimate the progressivity coefficient that measures the area between the Lorenz and concentration curves. Results The low-income group is found to be the most sensitive to tax and price increases. It spends a relatively higher share of the household expenditure on cigarettes compared with higher income groups. However, the results suggest a different outcome as excise tax increases; the share of household expenditures spent on cigarettes declines for all household tertiles but a significant reduction occurs on the lowest expenditure tertile, suggesting that increases in excise taxes are progressive. Furthermore, the highest expenditure tertile pays the highest excise tax among expenditure tertiles, and their share in total excise revenue increases as the excise tax per pack of cigarettes increases. Conclusions The poor smoking households benefit the most from increases in excise taxes; from a budgetary perspective, as they reduce their smoking consumption significantly, the share of their excise payment in total household expenditures declines. From a health perspective, they are likely to have more health benefits as their consumption reduces. Government revenues are also predicted to increase with increased excise taxes, and the government can allocate a part of these revenue increases on implementing and enforcing other tobacco control measures including cessation support and smoke-free environments.

Bank Quality, Loan Demand, and Market Discipline

In this paper, we examine the disciplinary role of borrowers, who are one of the key stakeholders in Turkish banks and are heavily affected when their banks experience difficulty. In the theoretical model, we show that borrowers prefer to have a relationship with less risky banks although it increases their cost of getting funds. Empirically, we examine the relationship between quality of a bank and its loan demand and find that as riskiness of a bank decreases, its loan demand increases significantly, suggesting the disciplinary role of borrowers in Turkey.

Health information and life-course smoking behavior: evidence from Turkey

We investigate whether individuals are less likely to start and more likely to quit smoking in years when newspapers publish more articles about the health risks of smoking. With data from 9030 respondents to the 2008 Global Adult Tobacco Survey in Turkey, we construct respondents’ life-course smoking histories back to 1925 and model initiation and cessation decisions taken 1925–2008. To measure information, we count articles published in Milliyet, one of Turkey’s major newspapers. Results from linear probability models show that people who have seen more smoking-health risk articles know more about the smoking–health relationship. Holding constant each individual’s information stock, education, place of residence, and the price of cigarettes, we find that, as new information arrives, male and female smokers in all cohorts are significantly more likely to quit and women are less likely to start. Our analysis is one of the first that examines how new information affects smoking decisions while controlling for each individual’s existing stock of information.

Foreign Banks, Financial Crises and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Understanding the implications of increased foreign bank presence is especially compelling in periods of financial crisis. In this paper, we explore this issue by examining the relationship between the involvement of foreign banks in the banking systems and the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in normal and crisis periods. Using a sample of 20 Emerging European countries from 1998 to 2013, we find that an increase in the assets of foreign banks in the banking system reduces output and consumption growth volatility in general but does not significantly affect the volatility of investments. However, these banks were found to play a significant role in increasing output, consumption and investment volatility in 2009. Our findings suggest that foreign banks’ harmful impact during the global crisis was only temporary and that they seem to help Emerging European countries stabilize macroeconomic volatility in normal times and after the global crisis.

Bank Quality, Loan Demand and Market Discipline

In this paper, the disciplining role of borrowers towards risky banks is examined in a multi-period setting. In the theoretical model, it is shown that borrowers choose to pay high interest rates to the banks that are perceived as less risky, in order to minimize possible liquidity problems. We hypothesize that borrowers can punish banks with deteriorating fundamentals by reducing their loan demand. Using panel data from Turkish private commercial banks, we find that as the riskiness of a bank increases, its loan demand declines significantly. This disciplinary reaction is shown to be more effective especially towards small banks.

Role of Bank Credit on Local Growth: Do Politics and Crisis Matter?

Although state-owned banks are expected to promote the growth of less-developed regions, especially in developing economies, several cross-country studies report that lending by state banks is associated with the inefficient allocation of credit and low levels of development. Further, state banks have been found to lend to their cronies, especially around elections. In this paper, we study the lending activities of state-owned and private banks during the period 1992-2010 and analyze the relationship between the credit these banks provide and local economic growth in Turkey during crisis periods and in election years. We find that the share of state-owned banks in the credit market in crisis periods and local election years is significantly higher than their share in non-crisis and non-election periods. The per capita real credit that state-owned banks provide during crisis years is found to be positively associated with local growth in all provinces. Our results suggest that although state-owned banks might issue loans for political reasons in election periods, they also seem to play an important role in offsetting the adverse effects of economic shocks, especially in developed provinces.