Zhao Jianshi

Yellow River basin: living with scarcity

The Yellow River basin is a key food production centre of global importance facing rapidly growing water scarcity. Water availability for agriculture in the basin is threatened by rapid growth in the demand for industrial and urban water, the need to flush sediment from the rivers lower reaches, environmental demands and growing water pollution. Climate change is already evident in the basin with long-term declines in river runoff, higher temperatures, and increasing frequency and intensity of drought. The Chinese government has exhausted most options for improving water supply. The challenge will be to switch to improved water demand management, which is hampered by existing governance structures, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies.

Study on the holistic model for water resources system

Based on the Theory of Complex Adaptive System developed recently, a holistic model for water resources system is established at the basin level for analyzing water resources management and allocation of the basin. In this holistic model framework, the subsystems of the water resources system, including hydrologic components, agricultural and industrial production, human living, ecosystem and enviorenment are combined in a dynamic connection with inner variables. According to the characteristics of the holistic model framework, a nesting genetic arithmetic is employed to solve the nonlinear optimal model. The model is applied in the Yellow River basin to analyze the rational amount of diversion water for the West Line of Water Transfer Project form South China to North China and its marginal benifit.

Theory and model of water resources complex adaptive allocation system

Complex adaptive system theory is a new and important embranchment of system science, which provides a new thought to research water resources allocation system. Based on the analysis of complexity and complex adaptive mechanism of water resources allocation system, a fire-new analysis model is presented in this paper. With the description of dynamical mechanism of system, behavior characters of agents and the evaluation method of system status, an integrity research system is built to analyse the evolvement rule of water resources allocation system. And a brief research for the impact of water resources allocation in beneficial regions of the Water Transfer from South to North China Project is conducted.Complex adaptive system theory is a new and important embranchment of system science, which provides a new thought to research water resources allocation system. Based on the analysis of complexity and complex adaptive mechanism of water resources allocation system, a fire-new analysis model is presented in this paper. With the description of dynamical mechanism of system, behavior characters of agents and the evaluation method of system status, an integrity research system is built to analyse the evolvement rule of water resources allocation system. And a brief research for the impact of water resources allocation in beneficial regions of the Water Transfer from South to North China Project is conducted.