Zhao Li-ming

The Determinants of China's Defense Expenditure Before and After Transition

This paper examines the determinants of Chinas defense expenditure over the period 1960—1999, and two sub-samples before and after transition for 1960—1980 and 1981— 1999, applying official Chinese data and SIPRI Yearbook data. An empirical econometric model is set up on the basis of standard neo-classical theory. The empirical results suggest that earlier defense expenditure, changes in the strategy environment, and GDP are major determinants of Chinas defense expenditure on the long run. For the split periods, the national security environment, economic factor, and earlier defense expenditure are the main determining factors prior to 1981, but earlier defense expenditure is the main determinant after 1981 (when official Chinese data are used). The impact of Taiwanese military spending on Mainland Chinas demand for defense expenditure was not statistically significant.

Risk integrated assessment of the project schduel and cost based on maximun entropy and the random network

During the construction process, the project schedule would be affected by the various indeterminate factors inevitably, which may cause increased risk of engineering postpone or difficulty in cost control. Maximum entropy principle was introduced into project risk management by studying information entropy and random network theory, which was applied in project schedule and cost control. And it was analyzed in entropy theorys angle. The combined risk control model was established based on the principles of maximum entropy and GERT, and the probability density function of construction period was obtained by this model. Then probability density function of the cost was derived and completion rate in the required time was obtained by the model. And last through a case study prove that the entropy theory has the good function and maneuver abilities in work project control with the software programming and provide a new method for the progress and the cost control.