Zhi-Xiang Zhang

Management planning for endangered plant species in priority protected areas

We propose an improved planning method for priority protected areas (PPAs) to conserve endangered plant species that are threatened by climate change and human disturbance. Recent researches have shown that the actual approaches used in planning PPAs are useful for the conservation of endangered plants. The next required step is to determine how to protect endangered plants effectively in PPAs. Here, we used the case of 84 endangered plants in China to integrate conservation management into the planning of PPAs. First, we identified locations for proposed PPAs based on current and future suitable habitats of species, based on shifts due to climate change, as modelled by Maxent; secondly, we classified the species into different clusters based on the value of protecting them and the factors that threaten them; finally, we determined the best regions for conservation management. We found that species with high material, medicinal, and scientific research values of protection were threatened by over-exploitation and excess reclamation in PPAs. The best candidate PPAs were distributed mainly in southern China—the provinces of Fujiang, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Hunan, Zhejiang and Guizhou held large potential for the protection of endangered plant species. Given the attention that we paid to conservation management for the planning of PPAs, and the practical value of study, our method will provide an important point of reference for the implementation of policy to protect endangered plants from the effects of climate change, along with information about the values of protecting species and the factors that threaten them.

Vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China

China has large areas of forest vegetation that are critical to biodiversity and carbon storage. It is important to assess vulnerability of forest vegetation to anthropogenic climate change in China because it may change the distributions and species compositions of forest vegetation. Based on the equilibrium assumption of forest communities across different spatial and temporal scales, we used species distribution modelling coupled with endemics-area relationship to assess the vulnerability of 204 forest communities across 16 vegetation types under different climate change scenarios in China. By mapping the vulnerability of forest vegetation to climate change, we determined that 78.9% and 61.8% of forest vegetation should be relatively stable in the low and high concentration scenarios, respectively. There were large vulnerable areas of forest vegetation under anthropogenic climate change in northeastern and southwestern China. The vegetation of subtropical mixed broadleaf evergreen and deciduous forest, cold-temperate and temperate mountains needleleaf forest, and temperate mixed needleleaf and broadleaf deciduous forest types were the most vulnerable under climate change. Furthermore, the vulnerability of forest vegetation may increase due to high greenhouse gas concentrations. Given our estimates of forest vegetation vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, it is critical that we ensure long-term monitoring of forest vegetation responses to future climate change to assess our projections against observations. We need to better integrate projected changes of temperature and precipitation into climate-adaptive conservation strategies for forest vegetation in China.

Expansion potential of invasive tree plants in ecoregions under climate change scenarios: an assessment of 54 species at a global scale

ABSTRACT Climate change may increase expansion risk of invasive tree plants (ITPs) worldwide. Ecoregions are the power conservation tool for the management of ITPs. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between ITP expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change scenarios. Here, we provided a method to evaluate the expansion potential of 54 representative ITPs in ecoregions specifically under influences of the changing climate at the global scale. We found that climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration plays a positive role on the expansion of ITPs. We determined two of the most important ecoregion hotspots of ITP expansion potential, such as New Zealand and South Africa. In addition, ITPs were likely to have a large potential to expand in ecoregions of five different biomes, like temperate broadleaf and mixed forests. The potential expansion of ITPs would increase obviously in ecoregions of Boreal Forests/Taiga and Tundra. More importantly, the ecoregions of high elevation belonging to Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous Forests were expected to experience the higher expansion risk in the low GHG concentration scenario. Given our estimates of ITP expansion for ecoregions, management for the prevention and control for ITPs is urgent at the global scale.

Identifying appropriate protected areas for endangered fern species under climate change

Abstract The management of protected areas (PAs) is widely used in the conservation of endangered plant species under climate change. However, studies that have identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species are rare. To address this gap, we must develop a workflow to plan appropriate PAs for endangered fern species that will be further impacted by climate change. Here, we used endangered fern species in China as a case study, and we applied conservation planning software coupled with endangered fern species distribution data and distribution modeling to plan conservation areas with high priority protection needs under climate change. We identified appropriate PAs for endangered fern species under climate change based on the IUCN protected area categories (from Ia to VI) and planned additional PAs for endangered fern species. The high priority regions for protecting the endangered fern species were distributed throughout southern China. With decreasing temperature seasonality, the priority ranking of all endangered fern species is projected to increase in existing PAs. Accordingly, we need to establish conservation areas with low climate vulnerability in existing PAs and expand the conservation areas for endangered fern species in the high priority conservation regions.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves.

The spatial distribution of threats to plant species with extremely small populations

Many biological conservationists take actions to conserve plant species with extremely small populations (PSESP) in China; however, there have been few studies on the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP. Hence, we selected distribution data of PSESP and made a map of the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP in China. First, we used the weight assignment method to evaluate the threat risk to PSESP at both country and county scales. Second, we used a geographic information system to map the spatial distribution of threats to PSESP, and explored the threat factors based on linear regression analysis. Finally, we suggested some effective conservation options. We found that the PSESP with high values of protection, such as the plants with high scientific research values and ornamental plants, were threatened by over-exploitation and utilization, habitat fragmentation, and a small sized wild population in broad-leaved forests and bush fallows. We also identified some risk hotspots for PSESP in China. Regions with low elevation should be given priority for ex- and in-situ conservation. Moreover, climate change should be considered for conservation of PSESP. To avoid intensive over-exploitation or utilization and habitat fragmentation, in-situ conservation should be practiced in regions with high temperatures and low temperature seasonality, particularly in the high risk hotspots for PSESP that we proposed. Ex-situ conservation should be applied in these same regions, and over-exploitation and utilization of natural resources should be prevented. It is our goal to apply the concept of PSESP to the global scale in the future.

Erratum to: Protected areas may not effectively support conservation of endangered forest plants under climate change

Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in the conservation of valuable forest resources, and an increasing number of areas are being designated as PAs worldwide. However, climate change could drive endangered forest plants out of PAs, and impact the function of PAs to conserve endangered forest plants. Hence, it is necessary for conservation biologists to put forward a simple method to evaluate the ability of PAs to conserve endangered forest plants. Here, we studied 61 endangered forest plants from three ecoregions in China. We applied species distribution modeling to project suitable habitats of endangered forest plants, and used geographical information system to compute whether PAs could support the conservation of endangered forest plants. With climate change caused by increasing gas concentration, the overall ability of PAs to support the conservation of endangered forest plants will likely decrease compared to the conservation needs of ecoregions. We found that PAs have varying abilities to conserve endangered forest plants in different ecoregions. For temperate broadleaf mixed forests and tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, we found that climate change will decrease the PAs’ ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants effectively in the existing forest landscape. In contrast, we found that temperate conifer forests will likely remain effective. Using this information, we proposed the conservation plans for different ecoregions under climate change. For PAs with limited ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants in an ecoregion, we recommend expanding the areas of forests and PAs based on the suitable habitats of the endangered forest plants. For PAs with stable ability to support the conservation of endangered forest plants in an ecoregion, we recommend expanding the conservation areas in PAs.