Zhimin Ma

Observing storm surges from space: Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland

Coastal communities are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to storm surges under a changing climate. Tide gauges can be used to monitor alongshore variations of a storm surge, but not cross-shelf features. In this study we combine Jason-2 satellite measurements with tide-gauge data to study the storm surge caused by Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland. Satellite observations reveal a storm surge of 1 m in the early morning of September 22, 2010 (UTC) after the passage of the storm, consistent with the tide-gauge measurements. The post-storm sea level variations at St. Johns and Argentia are associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with a phase speed of ~10 m/s and a cross-shelf decaying scale of ~100 km). The study clearly shows the utility of satellite altimetry in observing and understanding storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Abstract Trends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3 mm y−1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7 mm y−1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9 mm y−1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from −50 cm in northeastern Canada to 75 cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70 cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from −15 to 50 cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20 cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7 cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites.

Oceanic responses to Hurricane Igor over the Grand Banks: A modeling study

A three-dimensional (3-D) baroclinic finite-volume ocean model (FVCOM) was developed to examine the oceanic response to Hurricane Igor over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. Hurricane Igor generated a storm surge of almost 1 m at St. Johns and about 0.8 m at three nearby coastal tide gauge stations (Bonavista, Argentia and St. Lawrence). The surge magnitude from the 3-D baroclinic model agrees approximately with tide-gauge observations at all four stations, slightly better than that from an alternative 3-D barotropic case. The sudden drop of sea surface temperature caused by the storm, approximately 6oC as observed by buoys, is well simulated by the baroclinic model with a k-e turbulence closure. A sensitivity simulation with the Mellor-Yamada turbulence closure significantly underestimates sea surface cooling. It is shown that the sea surface cooling is mainly associated with turbulent mixing, and to a lesser degree with Ekman upwelling. The model solution shows that the largest surge occurred between Bonavista and St. Johns. Further analysis suggests the generation of a free continental shelf wave after the storm made landfall, with the peak surge propagating from St. Johns to St. Lawrence.

Simulation of Circulation and Ice over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: The Mean and Seasonal Cycle

Abstract A three dimensional ice–ocean coupled model with a 7 km horizontal resolution has been developed to examine spatial and seasonal variability of hydrography and circulation over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves. Daily atmospheric forcing is applied and monthly open boundary forcing is prescribed based on a global ocean assimilation model. Monthly mean results averaged over a simulation period from 1979 to 2010 are evaluated using a variety of temperature, salinity, current, and ice observations. In comparison with observations and previous model results, the present model shows good skill in simulating the inshore and shelf-edge Labrador Current. The model temperature and salinity agree well with observations. Model sea-ice extent compares well with observations. The model mean transport is approximately 7.5 and 0.7 Sv (Sv = 106 m3 s−1) for the shelf-edge and inshore branches of the Labrador Current, respectively, consistent with observational estimates. The modelled total transport from the coast to the central Labrador Sea is 27.5 Sv from June to September, in good agreement with the observational estimate. The seasonal range for the shelf-edge and inshore branches is 2.0 and 0.6 Sv, respectively, strong in winter and fall and weak in spring and summer. The model mean freshwater transport at the Seal Island and Flemish Cap transects is 0.12 and 0.14 Sv, respectively, consistent with observational estimates, and the range of the seasonal freshwater transport is 0.09 Sv and 0.04 Sv for each transect, respectively, which is approximately in phase with the volume transport.

Coastal sea level projections with improved accounting for vertical land motion

Regional and coastal mean sea level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) account only for vertical land motion (VLM) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which may significantly under- or over-estimate sea level rise. Here we adjust AR5-like regional projections with the VLM from Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements and/or from a combination of altimetry and tide-gauge data, which include both GIA and non-GIA VLM. Our results at selected tide-gauge locations on the North American and East Asian coasts show drastically different projections with and without non-GIA VLM being accounted for. The present study points to the importance of correcting IPCC AR5 coastal projections for the non-GIA VLM in making adaptation decisions.

Reconstructed Wind Fields from Multi-Satellite Observations

We present and validate a method of reconstructing high-resolution sea surface wind fields from multi-sensor satellite data over the Grand Banks of Newfoundland off Atlantic Canada. Six-hourly ocean wind fields from blended products (including multi-satellite measurements) with 0.25° spatial resolution and 226 RADARSAT-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) wind fields with 1-km spatial resolution have been used to reconstruct new six-hourly wind fields with a resolution of 10 km for the period from August 2008 to December 2010, except July 2009 to November 2009. The reconstruction process is based on the heapsort bucket method with topdown search and the modified Gauss–Markov theorem. The result shows that the mean difference between the reconstructed wind speed and buoy-estimated wind speed is smaller than 0.6 m/s, and the standard deviation is smaller than 2.5 m/s. The mean difference in wind direction between reconstructed and buoy estimates is 3.7°; the standard deviation is 40.2°. There is fair agreement between the reconstructed wind vectors and buoy-estimated ones.

Annual sea level variations off Atlantic Canada from satellite altimetry

Annual cycle of sea level off Atlantic Canada has been investigated based on a merged satellite altimetry dataset and a monthly temperature and salinity dataset. The altimetric results were compared with coastal tide-gauge data and steric height calculated from the temperature and salinity dataset. There was a general north-south variation in the amplitude of the altimetric annual cycle, increasing from 4 cm in the Labrador Sea to 15 cm in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current Region. The annual cycle in the deep ocean can approximately be accounted for by the steric height variability relative to 700 m, in which the thermosteric effect was the dominant contributor. The halosteric effect over the continental slope, especially over the northern Labrador Slope was also important. While the thermosteric effect occurred dominantly at the top 100 m water column, there was substantial halosteric variation in the 100–300 m water column. The annual sea level cycle along the Canadian Atlantic coast showed a complicated pattern in amplitude, but the phase was highly coherent with the highest sea level in fall. The steric height accounts for a substantial portion of the coastal annual cycle, but other factors such as wind forcing may be equally important.

Interannual and Decadal Sea Surface Height Variability Over the Northwest Atlantic Slope

The Northwest Atlantic continental slope features strong interactions among the western boundary currents of the subpolar and subtropical gyres, and, thus, the sea-level variability over the slope may be an indicator for the large-scale ocean circulation. In this study, temporal and spatial sea-level variability in the Northwest Atlantic continental slope has been investigated based on a satellite altimetry dataset and a temperature and salinity dataset. The altimetric results from 1993 to 2012 are compared with steric height anomalies relative to 1500 m, calculated from the temperature and salinity dataset. This study shows significant interannual and decadal sea-level variability, with prominent regional differences and varying linkages to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability in the North Atlantic. Both the altimeric and steric height anomalies in the western Labrador Sea are negatively correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index primarily via wintertime deep convection. The altimetric height anomalies in the Laurentian Fan have a weak (insignificant at the 95% confidence level) positive correlation with those in the Labrador Sea, while the steric height anomalies have a negative correlation. The thermosteric (halosteric) height anomalies in the Labrador Sea are negatively (positively) correlated with the winter NAO index, while those in the Laurentian Fan are not correlated with the winter NAO index. The along-slope differences in the interannual and decadal variations of the sea surface height anomalies imply that there is an interior pathway of the southwardflowing Labrador Sea intermediate water toward the central North Atlantic basin before reaching 55°N.

Climate Change on Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves: Results From a Regional Downscaled Ocean and Sea-Ice Model Under an A1B Forcing Scenario 2011–2069

ABSTRACT Climate change may affect ocean and ice conditions in coastal oceans and thus have significant impacts on coastal infrastructure, marine navigation, and marine ecosystems. In this study a three-dimensional ice–ocean model is developed to examine likely changes of ocean and ice conditions over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves in response to climate change. The model is configured with a horizontal grid of approximately 7 km and a vertical grid of 46 levels and is run from 1979 to 2069. The projection period is 2011 to 2069 under a median emission scenario A1B used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For the projection period, the surface atmospheric forcing fields used are from the Canadian Regional Climate Model over the North Atlantic. The open boundary conditions come from the Canadian Global Climate Model, Version 3 (CGCM3), adjusted for the 1981–2010 mean of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation model output. The simulated fields over the 1981–2010 period have patterns consistent with observations. Over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves during the projection period, the model shows general trends of warming, freshening, and decreasing ice. From 2011 to 2069, the model projects that under A1B sea surface temperature will increase by 1.4°C; bottom temperature will increase by 1.6°C; sea surface salinity will decrease by 0.7; bottom salinity will decrease by 0.3; and sea-ice extent will decrease by 70%. The sea level will rise by 0.11 m at the St. Johns tide-gauge station because of oceanographic change, and the freshwater transport of the Labrador Current will double as a result of freshening. The regional ice–ocean model reproduces more realistic present climate conditions and projects considerably different future climate conditions than CGCM3.