Zhiqiang Dong

Agriculture intensifies soil moisture decline in Northern China

Northern China is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Agricultural activities have intensified since the 1980s to provide food security to the country. However, this intensification has likely contributed to an increasing scarcity in water resources, which may in turn be endangering food security. Based on in-situ measurements of soil moisture collected in agricultural plots during 1983–2012, we find that topsoil (0–50 cm) volumetric water content during the growing season has declined significantly (p < 0.01), with a trend of −0.011 to −0.015 m3 m−3 per decade. Observed discharge declines for the three large river basins are consistent with the effects of agricultural intensification, although other factors (e.g. dam constructions) likely have contributed to these trends. Practices like fertilizer application have favoured biomass growth and increased transpiration rates, thus reducing available soil water. In addition, the rapid proliferation of water-expensive crops (e.g., maize) and the expansion of the area dedicated to food production have also contributed to soil drying. Adoption of alternative agricultural practices that can meet the immediate food demand without compromising future water resources seem critical for the sustainability of the food production system.

Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.

Climate change and its effect on reference crop evapotranspiration in central and western Inner Mongolia during 1961–2009

Water resource is one of the major constraints to agricultural production in central and western Inner Mongolia, where are characteristic by arid and semi-arid climate. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is an important part of water cycle in agricultural ecosystem, which has a direct effect on crop growth and yield. The implications of climate change on ET0 are of high importance for agriculture regarding water management and irrigation scheduling. The aim of this study was to analyze the variations in climate and its effect on ET0 in central and western Inner Mongolia over the period 1961 to 2009. For this purpose, data in ten meteorological stations across study area were collected and the FAO Penman-Monteith 56 method was used. Results showed that the average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased by 0.49°C, 0.31°C and 0.70°C per decade during 1961–2009, respectively. In comparison, the daily temperature range decreased by 0.38°C per decade. The air relative humidity, sunshine hour, and 10-m wind speed decreased generally by 0.58%, 40.11 h, and 0.35 m/s per decade, respectively. Annual mean ET0 decreased significantly at a rate of 12.2 mm per decade over the periods, this was mainly due to the decrease in wind speed in the study area. The decrease in wind speed may balance the effect of the increase in air temperature on ET0. Variations in spatial distribution of ET0 and its main controlling factor were also detected among ten stations. Our results suggested that spatial and temporal distribution of ET0 should be considered regarding the optimization of water resource management for agriculture in central and western Inner Mongolia under foreseen climate change.

The influence of nitrogen fertiliser rate and crop rotation on soil methane flux in rain-fed potato fields in Wuchuan County, China

As one of the important greenhouse gases, the characteristics and principles of methane exchange characteristics in cultivated lands have become hot topics in current climate change research. This study examines the influences of nitrogen fertilisation, temperature and soil water content on methane exchange characteristic and methane exchange functional gene-pmoA gene abundance based on experimental observations of methane exchange fluxes using the static chamber-gas chromatographic method and measurements of methanotroph gene copy numbers in three growing periods by real-time PCR in rain-fed potato fields. The results indicate that the rain-fed potato fields were a CH4 sink with an average annual methane absorption (negative emission) of 940.8±103.2 g CH4-C/ha/year. The cumulative methane absorption first exhibited flat and subsequently increasing trend with the increase of nitrogen fertilisation from 0~135 kg N·ha(-1). Methane cumulative absorption significantly increased with the increase of temperature when temperatures were below 19.6 °C. Methane oxidation capacity (methanotroph pmoA gene copy numbers) showed an increasing and subsequently decreasing trend with the increase of soil moisture. Crop rotation was observed to increase the methane absorption in rain-fed potato fields and nearly one time higher than that under continuous cropping. A mechanism concept model of the methane exchange in rain-fed potato fields was advanced in this paper.

Adaptation to a warming-drying trend through cropping system adjustment over three decades: A case study in the northern agro-pastural ecotone of China

Long-term field monitoring data and historical crop data are useful to assess the impacts of climate change and to manage cropping systems. The objectives of this study are to understand the cropping system response to a warming-drying trend in the northern agro-pastural ecotone (NAE) of China and to document how farmers can adapt to the warming-drying trend by changing cropping system structure and adjusting planting date. The results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the NAE from 1980 to 2009, and this trend significantly decreased crop (spring wheat, naked oat, and potato) yields. Furthermore, the yield decreased by 16.2%–28.4% with a 1°C increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6%–11.8% with a 10% decrease in precipitation. Considering food security, water use efficiency, and water ecological adaptability in the semi-arid NAE, cropping system structure adjustment (e.g., a shift from wheat to potato as the predominant crop) and planting date adaptation (e.g., a delay in crop planting date) can offset the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE. Based on the successful offsetting of the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE, we conclude that farmers can reduce the negative effects of climate change and minimize the risk of crop failure by adapting their cropping system structure at the farming level.

A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.