Zhixin Hao

Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference

Twenty-three published proxy temperature series over China spanning the last 2000 years were selected for an uncertainty analysis in five climate regions. Results indicated that, although large uncertainties are found for the period prior to the 16th century, high level of consistency were identified in all regions during the recent 500-years, highlighted by the two cold periods 1620s-1710s and 1800s-1860s, and the warming during the 20th century. The latter started in Tibet, Northwest and Northeast, and migrated to Central East and Southeast. The analysis also indicates that the warming during the 10-14th centuries in some regions might be comparable in magnitude to the warming of the last few decades of the 20th century which was unprecedented within the past 500 years. Citation: Ge, Q.-S., J.-Y. Zheng, Z.-X. Hao, X.-M. Shao, W.-C. Wang, and J. Luterbacher (2010), Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041281.

Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (i) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ii) The geographical distribution model between phenophase and geographical location is unstable. Since the 1980s, with the spring temperature increasing in the most of China and decreasing in the south of Qinling Mountains, phenophases have advanced in northeastern China, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and have delayed in the eastern part of southwestern China and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River; while the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller.

General characteristics of climate changes during the past 2000 years in China

The general characteristics of climate changes over the past 2000 years in China, regional differences and uncertainties were analyzed based on the recently peer-reviewed high time-resolution climatic reconstructions. The results showed that there exists four warm periods of the temperature variation in China since the Qin Dynasty, including the western and eastern Han Dynasties (200 BC-AD 180), the Sui and Tang dynasties (541–810), the Song and Yuan dynasties (931–1320), and the 20th century, and three cold phases involving the Wei, Jin, and North-South Dynasties (181–540), the late Tang Dynasty (811–930), and the Ming and Qing dynasties (1321–1920). The Song and Yuan warm period is consistent with the Medieval Warm Period over the Northern Hemisphere, and the cold phases of the North-South Dynasties and the Ming and Qing dynasties are paralleled to the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. The 13th-15th century could be a shift to the wet condition of the climate, and the low precipitation variability is exhibited in western China prior to 1500. In the context of the climate warming, the pattern of the drought in north and flood in south is prevalent over the eastern China. In addition, the published reconstructions have a high level of confidence for the past 500 years, but large uncertainties exist prior to the 16th century.

East Asian monsoon signals reflected in temperature and precipitation changes over the past 300 years in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Based on observational data and Asian monsoon intensity datasets from China, the relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon index and winter temperature, the East Asian summer monsoon index and Meiyu precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, were analyzed. We found that the monsoon signals were reflected in the temperature and Meiyu precipitation variations. Thus, we used the reconstructed Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature series for the past 300 years and detected the summer/winter monsoon intensity signals using multi-taper spectral estimation method and wavelet analysis. The main periodicities of Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature, such as interannual cycle with 2–7-year, interdecadal-centennial cycles with 30–40-year and 50–100-year, were found. The good relationships between the East Asian summer and winter monsoons suggested that they were in phase at 31-year cycle, while out of phase at 100-year cycle, but with 20-year phase difference. In addition, the winter monsoon intensity may be regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the summer monsoon is closely related to the signal intensities of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Method for seasonal precipitation reconstruction derived from snow and rainfall archives in Qing Dynasty: A case study in Shijiazhuang

Two methods to reconstruct seasonal precipitation are developed in terms of the soil surface water balance and field infiltration experiment by artificial rainfall. Seasonal and annual precipitation for the period of 1736 similar to 1910 are reconstructed from snow and rainfall archives in the Qing Dynasty through both methods. The seasonal precipitation series from 1736 to 2000 is also established. The results show that the time series of seasonal precipitation obtained from both methods are statistically significant and consistent, implying that the seasonal precipitation can be reconstructed accurately from snow and rainfall archives in the Qing Dynasty by the above two methods, and thus the Chinese precipitation data in a large area would be extended to the early 18th century from 20th century (instrumental observation period).

Spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies for 30-yr warm periods in China during the past 2000 years

The spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies during five 30-yr warm periods of 691–720, 1231–1260, 1741–1770, 1921–1950, and 1981–2000 were investigated using a dryness/wetness grading dataset covering 48 stations from Chinese historical documents and 22 precipitation proxy series from natural archives. It was found that the North China Plain (approximately 35°–40°N, east of 105°E) was dry in four warm periods within the centennial warm epochs of 600–750, the Medieval Warm Period (about 900–1300) and after 1900. A wet condition prevailed over most of China during 1741–1770, a 30-yr warm peak that occurred during the Little Ice Age (about 1650–1850). The spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly in 1981–2000 over East China (25°-40°N, east of 105°E) is roughly consistent with that in 1231–1260, but a difference in the precipitation anomaly appeared over the Tibetan Plateau. The spatial patterns of the precipitation anomalies over China varied between all five 30-yr warm periods, which implies that the matching pattern between temperature and precipitation change is multiform, and the precipitation anomaly could be positive or negative when a decadal warm climate occurs in different climate epochs. This result may provide a primary reference for the mechanism detection and climate simulation of the precipitation anomaly of the future warm climate.

Observed, Reconstructed, and Simulated Decadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over Eastern China

Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736–2000, dry–wet index data for A.D. 500–2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth System Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China is studied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are: 22–24 and quasi-70 yr over the North China Plain; 32–36, 44–48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang–Huai area; and 32–36 and 44–48 yr in the Jiang–Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation reveals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North China Plain, Jiang–Huai area, and Jiang–Nan area, at scales of 20–35, 35–50, and 50–80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry (wet) conditions over the North China Plain, but wet (dry) conditions in the Jiang–Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data–model comparison suggests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastern China, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.

Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3°C and 0.7°C, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56° ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1; however, temperatures recorded in the 20th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD 1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.摘要本文综述了近来中国过去2000年气候变化研究中新取得的高分辨率代用资料和重建序列。结果显示: (1) 中国温度存在50–70年、100–120年和200–250年的准周期变化, 其年代和百年际变幅分别约为1.3℃和0.7℃, 且在百年尺度上与太阳辐射的长期变化显著相关, 尤其是气温寒冷阶段与太阳活动极小期相对应。 (2) 1870–2000年是中国增温最快的阶段, 速率为0.56 ± 0.42°C (100 yr)−1, 但20世纪的气温记录可能并不是过去2000年未曾出现过的, 重建表明公元981–1100年和1201–1270年间的温暖程度可与之相比。 (3) 对中国东部所有百年尺度暖期的集合平均显示其旱涝格局呈三极空间分布: 25°N以南偏旱, 25°–30°N偏涝, 30°N以北偏旱; 而在所有百年尺度冷期旱涝格局则呈经向分布。 (4) 强厄尔尼诺–南方涛动和北大西洋年代际振荡是导致20世纪中国季风区降水增加的主要原因。 (5) 在中国东部, 蝗灾与温度及降水变化显著相关, 干冷气候条件下蝗灾较多; 北部地区的鼠疫与干湿变化呈正相关, 但南方地区的鼠疫却与干湿变化呈负相关。

Annual Temperature Reconstruction by Signal Decomposition and Synthesis from Multi-Proxies in Xinjiang, China, from 1850 to 2001

We reconstructed the annual temperature anomaly series in Xinjiang during 1850–2001 based on three kinds of proxies, including 17 tree-ring width chronologies, one tree-ring δ13C series and two δ18O series of ice cores, and instrumental observation data. The low- and high-frequency signal decomposition for the raw temperature proxy data was obtained by a fast Fourier transform filter with a window size of 20 years, which was used to build a good relationship that explained the high variance between the temperature and the proxy data used for the reconstruction. The results showed that for 1850–2001, the temperature during most periods prior to the 1920s was lower than the mean temperature in the 20th century. Remarkable warming occurred in the 20th century at a rate of 0.85°C/100a, which was higher than that during the past 150 years. Two cold periods occurred before the 1870s and around the 1910s, and a relatively warm interval occurred around the 1940s. In addition, the temperature series showed a warming hiatus of approximately 20 years around the 1970s, and a rapid increase since the 1980s.

Summer precipitation changes over the Yangtze River Valley and North China: Simulations from CMIP3 models

We present a study of summer precipitation changes over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and North China (NC) simulated from 20 models of the CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). It is found that the LASG-FGOALS-g1.0 (fgoals) model has the highest ability in simulating both the interannual variability of individual regions and the seesaw pattern of the two regions observed during the past few decades. Analyses of atmospheric circulations indicate that the variability in precipitation is closely associated with the 850 hPa meridional winds over the two regions. Wetness in the YRV and dryness in NC are corresponding to strong meridional wind gradient and weak meridional wind over these two regions, respectively. The ability of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to simulate precipitation changes in the YRV and NC depends on how well the model reproduces both observed associations of precipitation with overlying meridional winds and observed meridional wind features in summer. Analysis of future precipitation changes over the two regions projected by the fgoals model under the IPCC scenarios B1 and A1B suggests a significant increase of 7–15% for NC after 2040s due to the strengthened meridional winds, and a slight increase over the YRV due to less significant intensification of the Mei-yu front.