Zlatan Krizan

The Influence of Outcome Desirability on Optimism

People are often presumed to be vulnerable to a desirability bias, namely, a tendency to be overoptimistic about a future outcome as a result of their preferences or desires for that outcome. In this article, this form of wishful thinking is distinguished from the more general concepts of motivated reasoning and overoptimism, and the evidence for this bias is reviewed. The authors argue that despite the prevalence of the idea that desires bias optimism, the empirical evidence regarding this possibility is limited. The potential for desires to depress rather than enhance optimism is discussed, and the authors advocate for greater research attention to mediators of both types of effects. Nine possible mediational accounts are described, and critical issues for future research on the desirability bias are discussed.

Do People Have Insight Into Their Abilities? A Metasynthesis

Having insight into one’s abilities is essential, yet it remains unclear whether people generally perceive their skills accurately or inaccurately. In the present analysis, we examined the overall correspondence between self-evaluations of ability (e.g., academic ability, intelligence, language competence, medical skills, sports ability, and vocational skills) and objective performance measures (e.g., standardized test scores, grades, and supervisor evaluations) across 22 meta-analyses, in addition to considering factors that moderate this relationship. Although individual meta-analytic effects ranged from .09 to .63, the mean correlation between ability self-evaluations and performance outcomes across meta-analyses was moderate (M = .29, SD = .11). Further, the relation was stronger when self-evaluations were specific to a given domain rather than broad and when performance tasks were objective, familiar, or low in complexity. Taken together, these findings indicate that people have only moderate insight into their abilities but also underscore the contextual factors that enable accurate self-perception of ability.

Envy Divides the Two Faces of Narcissism

In this article, we test psychodynamic assumptions about envy and narcissism by examining malicious envy in the context of narcissistic grandiosity and vulnerability. In Study 1, students (N = 192) and community adults (N = 161) completed trait measures of narcissism, envy, and schadenfreude. In Study 2 (N = 121), participants relived an episode of envy, and cognitive-affective components of envy were examined in the context of both self- and informant reports of their envy and narcissism. In Study 3 (N = 69), narcissism was linked to reports of envy covertly induced in the laboratory. Vulnerable narcissism was strongly and consistently related to dispositional envy and schadenfreude (Studies 1-2), as well as to all cognitive-affective components of envy (Study 2). Furthermore, it facilitated envy and schadenfreude toward a high-status peer (Study 3). Grandiose narcissism was slightly negatively related to dispositional envy (Studies 1-2), and it did not predict informant reports of envy or cognitive-affective components of the emotion (Study 2). Finally, it did not exacerbate envy, hostility, or resentment toward a high-status peer (Study 3). The results suggest envy is a central emotion in the lives of those with narcissistic vulnerability and imply that envy should be reconsidered as a symptom accompanying grandiose features in the diagnosis of narcissistic personality disorder.

The Narcissism Spectrum Model: A Synthetic View of Narcissistic Personality:

The narcissism spectrum model synthesizes extensive personality, social–psychological, and clinical evidence, building on existing knowledge about narcissistic grandiosity and vulnerability to reveal a view of narcissism that respects its clinical origins, embraces the diversity and complexity of its expression, and reflects extensive scientific evidence about the continuity between normal and abnormal personality expression. Critically, the proposed model addresses three key, inter-related problems that have plagued narcissism scholarship for more than a century. These problems can be summarized as follows: (a) What are the key features of narcissism? (b) How are they organized and related to each other? and (c) Why are they organized that way, that is, what accounts for their relationships? By conceptualizing narcissistic traits as manifested in transactional processes between individuals and their social environments, the model enables integration of existing theories of narcissism and thus provides a compelling perspective for future examination of narcissism and its developmental pathways.

Wishful Thinking in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

In elections, political preferences are strongly linked to the expectations of the electoral winner—people usually expect their favorite candidate to win. This link could be driven by wishful thinking (a biasing influence of preferences), driven by a biasing influence of expectations on one’s wishes, or produced spuriously. To examine these competing possibilities in the 2008 U.S. presidential election, a longitudinal study assessed uncommitted young voters’ electoral expectations and preferences over four time points during the month before the election. The findings indicated clear support for wishful thinking: Over time, people’s preferences shaped their expectations, but the reverse was not the case. Moreover, these relations were larger among those more strongly identified with their political party and held even when perceptions of general candidate popularity were taken into account. Finally, changes in electoral expectations were consequential, as they shaped disappointment in the electoral results even after taking candidate preferences into account.

Causes and Consequences of Expectation Trajectories “High” on Optimism in a Public Ballot Initiative

Although expectations are key theoretical antecedents of emotion and behavior, expectations are typically examined as static properties without deep consideration of their temporal dynamics. We surveyed residents of California over five time points, during the month preceding a public ballot initiative on cannabis legalization (California Proposition 19) and after the election, to examine both the causes and the consequences of residents’ expectation trajectories regarding the vote’s outcome. Our results point to the importance of changes in individuals’ expectations over time. Specifically, well-informed voters were likely to lower their expectations regarding the measure’s passage as the vote neared, in line with polling results, but being informed about the initiative had less impact on expectation trajectories among voters who favored the measure than among those who opposed it. Furthermore, supporters who maintained their optimism about the initiative’s outcome over time were more likely to vote and were more disappointed following the measure’s failure, compared with supporters who became more pessimistic. The findings suggest that temporal changes in people’s optimism and expectations play a unique role in social behavior.

Synthesizer 1.0: A varying-coefficient meta-analytic tool

Meta-analysis has become an indispensable tool for reaching accurate and representative conclusions about phenomena of interest within a research literature. However, in order for meta-analytic computations to provide accurate estimates of population parameters (e.g., a population correlation), underlying statistical models need to be both efficient and unbiased. Current fixed-effect (i.e., constant-coefficient) models that assume a common effect for all research results perform poorly under conditions of effect size heterogeneity, whereas current random-effects (i.e., random-coefficient) models require unrealistic assumptions about random sampling of observed effect sizes from a normally distributed superpopulation. This article describes a free statistical software tool that employs a varying-coefficient model recently proposed by Bonett (2008, 2009). The software (Synthesizer 1.0) employs procedures that do not require effect homogeneity or random sampling of effect sizes from a normal distribution. It may be used to meta-analyze correlations, alpha reliabilities, and standardized mean differences. The Synthesizer tool for Microsoft Excel 2007 may be downloaded from the author at www .psychology.iastate.edu/~zkrizan/Synthesizer.htm or as a supplement to the article at http://brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

Direct-comparison judgments: when and why above- and below-average effects reverse.

Above-average and below-average effects appear to be common and consistent across a variety of judgment domains. For example, several studies show that individual items from a high- (low-) quality set tend to be rated as better (worse) than the other items in the set (e.g., E. E. Giladi & Y. Klar, 2002). Experiments in this article demonstrate reversals of these effects. A novel account is supported, which describes how the timing of the denotation of the to-be-judged item influences attention and ultimately affects the size or direction of comparative biases. The authors discuss how this timing account is relevant for many types of referent-dependent judgments (e.g., probability judgments, resource allocations) and how it intersects with various accounts of comparative bias (focalism, generalized-group, compromise between local and general standards [LOGE]).

Does personality predict health and well-being? A metasynthesis.

Objective: To derive a robust and comprehensive estimate of the overall relation between Big Five personality traits and health variables using metasynthesis (i.e., second-order meta-analysis). Method: Thirty-six meta-analyses, which collectively provided 150 meta-analytic effects from over 500,000 participants, met criteria for inclusion in the metasynthesis. Information on methodological quality as well as the type of health outcome, unreliability adjustment, population sampled, health outcome source, personality source, and research design was extracted from each meta-analysis. An unweighted model was used to aggregate data across meta-analyses. Results: When entered simultaneously, the Big Five traits were moderately associated with overall health (multiple R = .35). Personality–health relations were larger when examining mental health outcomes than physical health outcomes or health-related behaviors and when researchers adjusted for measurement unreliability, used self-report as opposed to other-report Big Five scales, or focused on clinical as opposed to nonclinical samples. Further, effects were larger among agreeableness, conscientiousness, and neuroticism than extraversion or openness to experience. Conclusions: This metasynthesis provides among the most compelling evidence to date that personality predicts overall health and well-being. In addition, it may inform research on the mechanisms by which personality impacts health as well as research on the structure of personality.

Sleepiness and Behavioral Risk-Taking: Do Sleepy People Take More or Less Risk?

ABSTRACT Background: Although sleep loss has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, it is unclear how individuals’ current propensity to fall asleep, known as sleepiness, influences risk-taking. Because sleepiness is not only driven by recent sleep but also by factors such as circadian rhythm and current stimulation, it may be an important contributor to risk-taking as it reflects the more immediate sleep-wake state. Participants: One hundred thirty participants were recruited from a large Midwestern U.S. university. Methods: Participants completed a short personality survey, reported their current sleepiness on the Stanford Sleepiness Scale, and then completed the Balloon Analog Risk Task, a computerized risk-taking measure in which participants earned real money for their performance. Results: There was little support for a linear relation between sleepiness and risk-taking, but the evidence indicated a robust curvilinear relation. Even after controlling for important individual differences in sleep and risk-taking, participants who were moderately sleepy took longer to complete the risk-taking task, pumped balloons more, and exploded more balloons than those who were either low or high on sleepiness. Conclusions: The curvilinear relation between sleepiness and risk-taking sheds light on inconsistencies in prior findings linking sleepiness and sleep loss to risk-taking behavior. Moreover, current sleepiness appears to have unique implications for risk-taking.