Zofia E. Taranu

Acceleration of cyanobacterial dominance in north temperate‐subarctic lakes during the Anthropocene

Increases in atmospheric temperature and nutrients from land are thought to be promoting the expansion of harmful cyanobacteria in lakes worldwide, yet to date there has been no quantitative synthesis of long-term trends. To test whether cyanobacteria have increased in abundance over the past ~ 200 years and evaluate the relative influence of potential causal mechanisms, we synthesised 108 highly resolved sedimentary time series and 18 decadal-scale monitoring records from north temperate-subarctic lakes. We demonstrate that: (1) cyanobacteria have increased significantly since c. 1800 ce, (2) they have increased disproportionately relative to other phytoplankton, and (3) cyanobacteria increased more rapidly post c. 1945 ce. Variation among lakes in the rates of increase was explained best by nutrient concentration (phosphorus and nitrogen), and temperature was of secondary importance. Although cyanobacterial biomass has declined in some managed lakes with reduced nutrient influx, the larger spatio-temporal scale of sedimentary records show continued increases in cyanobacteria throughout the north temperate-subarctic regions.

Land-Use Legacies Are Important Determinants of Lake Eutrophication in the Anthropocene

Background A hallmark of the latter half of the 20th century is the widespread, rapid intensification of a variety of anthropogenically-driven environmental changes—a “Great Acceleration.” While there is evidence of a Great Acceleration in a variety of factors known to be linked to water quality degradation, such as conversion of land to agriculture and intensification of fertilizer use, it is not known whether there has been a similar acceleration of freshwater eutrophication. Methodology/Principal Findings Using quantitative reconstructions of diatom-inferred total phosphorus (DI-TP) as a proxy for lake trophic state, we synthesized results from 67 paleolimnological studies from across Europe and North America to evaluate whether most lakes showed a pattern of eutrophication with time and whether this trend was accelerated after 1945 CE, indicative of a Great Acceleration. We found that European lakes have experienced widespread increases in DI-TP over the 20th century and that 33% of these lakes show patterns consistent with a post-1945 CE Great Acceleration. In North America, the proportion of lakes that increased in DI-TP over time is much lower and only 9% exhibited a Great Acceleration of eutrophication. Conclusions/Significance The longer and more widespread history of anthropogenic influence in Europe, the leading cause for the relatively pervasive freshwater eutrophication, provides an important cautionary tale; our current path of intensive agriculture around the world may lead to an acceleration of eutrophication in downstream lakes that could take centuries from which to recover.

Urban point sources of nutrients were the leading cause for the historical spread of hypoxia across European lakes

Significance Using a compilation of data arising from over 1,500 European watersheds, we have identified the relative role of different drivers in initiating hypolimnetic hypoxia, a critical indicator of lake health. In particular, our regional synthesis of laminated lake sediments indicated a significant acceleration in the spread of lacustrine hypoxia in the 1900s, which occurred well before the general use of commercial fertilizers in the mid-20th century and the onset of supraregional climate warming in the 1970s. The spread of hypoxia was best explained by urban expansion and the associated intensification of anthropogenic point sources of phosphorus, whereby changes in lifestyle increased the discharge of nutrients from treated and raw sewage, and ultimately led to enhanced lacustrine biological productivity. Enhanced phosphorus (P) export from land into streams and lakes is a primary factor driving the expansion of deep-water hypoxia in lakes during the Anthropocene. However, the interplay of regional scale environmental stressors and the lack of long-term instrumental data often impede analyses attempting to associate changes in land cover with downstream aquatic responses. Herein, we performed a synthesis of data that link paleolimnological reconstructions of lake bottom-water oxygenation to changes in land cover/use and climate over the past 300 years to evaluate whether the spread of hypoxia in European lakes was primarily associated with enhanced P exports from growing urbanization, intensified agriculture, or climatic change. We showed that hypoxia started spreading in European lakes around CE 1850 and was greatly accelerated after CE 1900. Socioeconomic changes in Europe beginning in CE 1850 resulted in widespread urbanization, as well as a larger and more intensively cultivated surface area. However, our analysis of temporal trends demonstrated that the onset and intensification of lacustrine hypoxia were more strongly related to the growth of urban areas than to changes in agricultural areas and the application of fertilizers. These results suggest that anthropogenically triggered hypoxia in European lakes was primarily caused by enhanced P discharges from urban point sources. To date, there have been no signs of sustained recovery of bottom-water oxygenation in lakes following the enactment of European water legislation in the 1970s to 1980s, and the subsequent decrease in domestic P consumption.

Small Changes in Climate Can Profoundly Alter the Dynamics and Ecosystem Services of Tropical Crater Lakes

African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R2adj = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001) in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

Insights for lake management gained when paleolimnological and water column monitoring studies are combined: A case study from Baptiste Lake

Abstract Many lakes within the Boreal Plain and Grassland regions of Canada are currently eutrophic to hypereutrophic. Limited paleolimnological work has been conducted to define water quality trajectories of lakes within this region. A 25-year intermittent monitoring and a ∼150-year paleolimnological time series from Baptiste Lake, Alberta, were analyzed using a combination of trend, correlation, and multivariate analyses. The temporal overlap between the monitoring and paleolimnological time series provides an opportunity to assess coherence between the data sources. Diatom assemblages in the sediment core show that eutrophic conditions were present for at least 150 years. Monitored water chemistry data since the early 1980s show that total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) has increased by approximately 50% since the early 1990s, whereas concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) have remained stable. Further, measured TKN is significantly correlated to measurements of chlorophyll a over the monitoring period and to diatom-inferred TKN values, suggesting nitrogen limitation in Baptiste Lake. In contrast, measured TP was not correlated to chlorophyll a or diatom-inferred TP. Changes in land use over the past 100 years is the most parsimonious explanation for the nutrient changes. No statistical support for climatic change as a linear predictor of nutrient dynamics was found. Our contemporary and paleolimnological analysis provides an important perspective on the timing and magnitude of nutrient dynamics over ∼150 years. Future government and community decisions on Baptiste Lake management would benefit from testing nutrient limitation and detailed modeling of nutrient runoff from the watershed.

Reconstructing a long-term record of microcystins from the analysis of lake sediments

Based on an analysis of sediment cores from Baptiste Lake (Alberta, Canada), we quantified century-scale trends in cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins, and identified possible drivers of toxigenic cyanobacteria. We measured concentrations of microcystins and pigments preserved in the sediment as proxies of toxigenic cyanobacteria and phytoplankton communities, respectively, while fossil diatom assemblages were used to infer past nutrient concentrations. Microcystins were detected in older sediments (ca. 1800s), pre-dating any significant alteration to the watershed. This demonstrates that toxigenic cyanobacteria may not be a recent phenomenon in eutrophic ecosystems. The dominant variants of microcystin throughout the sediment core were microcystin-LA and microcystin-LR. Other congeners including -LY, -7dmLR, -WR, -LF, -YR, and -LW (-RR was not detected) were mainly found in the upper layers of sediment (post 1980s). Starting in the 1990s, concentrations of microcystins both in the water column and in the sediment record increased in parallel. Total sediment microcystins were strongly correlated with historical nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations inferred from diatom assemblages (r=0.80-0.81, p<0.001, n=22); both nutrients increased over the past two decades coincident with the intensification of agriculture. Microcystins also tracked the rise in cyanobacterial pigments present throughout the core. In contrast, we found no relationship between climate-related variables and sediment microcystin concentrations, although such relationships were detected over the monitoring record with respect to water column concentrations. Overall, the rise in sediment microcystins was much greater than the rise in sediment cyanobacteria and diatom inferred nutrient concentrations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the reconstruction of the microcystin sediment record can provide important insight for the development of realistic lake management goals. Applying this analytical approach to different lakes and regions of the world, where both natural and anthropogenic gradients vary, has the potential to markedly improve our understanding of long-term drivers of cyanotoxin production.