Zsófia Papp

Party-directed personalisation: the role of candidate selection in campaign personalisation in Hungary

ABSTRACT This article aims to capture the effect of candidate selection on campaign personalisation during two Hungarian general elections (2010 and 2014). Our main hypothesis is that candidates who think their selection was mostly influenced by the national party leadership (i.e. it was centralised and at the same time exclusive) pursue less personalised campaigns than those who think that other actors played a major role in candidate selection. By using data from the Comparative Candidates Survey, we show that centralised and exclusive selection practices affect personalisation in Hungary. The main finding of this article is that – besides its main effect – candidate selection affects the personalisation of various groups of candidates (local politicians and national party leaders) in different ways. The result confirms that centralisation and exclusiveness in candidate selection is definitely important in shaping how candidates approach campaign personalisation.

Campaign-Personalization and Constituency Focus in a Mixed-Member Electoral System. The Case of Hungary

Abstract The aim of this paper is to uncover the micro-factors structuring campaign personalization in the case of Hungarian Members of Parliament. It is presumed that in a party-centred environment, the effects of the various independent characteristics are filtered by the parties. Thus, due to the electoral rules, personalization cannot contradict party centeredness. Representatives do not wish to distance themselves from their parties. Personalization is more of the result of the positions they hold or wish to fill in than the desire to defy party lines out of individualistic motivations. Based on the data from the 2010 MP-survey of the Hungarian Election Study, the article unveils the circumstances under which campaign personalization prevails. The international scholarly literature sets several hypotheses with regards to the factors influencing three dimensions of campaign personalization (norms, means and agenda), out of which several will be tested in this article. The analysis concludes that even under party-centred circumstances, the role of individual motivations and habits cannot be overlooked in defining the degree of personalization, nevertheless the interpretation of such effects requires caution.

Challenging the Odds: Incumbency Disadvantage, Local Ties, and Electoral Performance in Hungary, 1994–2010

Most empirical studies of the effect of incumbency conclude that being a defender of the seat is an advantage and that newcomers and challengers alike have increasingly lower probabilities of winning. Yet, the majority of these studies in Eastern Europe have been based on tumultuous political environments in which electoral rules change frequently. A test of the theory of how candidate traits such as legislative and local political experience increase incumbents’ electoral performance has not been done in an environment in which the electoral rules are stable. Furthermore, these studies are based in proportional representation (PR) systems, which amplify the role of the party leadership in determining candidate fate through candidate rankings. I examine Hungary’s mixed-member system using candidate-level panel data that covers Hungarian national elections from 1994 to 2010, and contains basic information on all candidates running in SMDs. I find that Hungarian SMD incumbents perform worse at the elections than their challengers. However, in the long run, legislative experience in SMDs neutralizes this effect. Additionally, local politicians, such as mayors, manage to increase their vote share at national elections.

Political Constraints and the Limited Effect of Electoral System Change on Personal Vote-Seeking in Hungary

This article aims at capturing how the recent changes in Hungary’s mixed-member electoral system altered the candidates’ personal vote-seeking strategies. Based on the literature, one might expect that strengthening the role of the Single-Member District (SMD) tier increases the incentives for personalisation. By utilizing the data from two consecutive waves of the Comparative Candidate Survey, we show that contrary to these expectations the average level of campaign personalisation decreased from 2010 to 2014. Semi-structured interviews with nine campaign staff members confirm that the political constraints were more important in determining campaign strategies than the institutional setting. Our findings challenge the dominating effect of electoral rules on personal vote-seeking.

The Macro-Level Driving Factors of Negative Campaigning in Europe

Covering the largest sample of countries to date, this study examines the effect of three country-specific factors on the tone of electoral campaigns across Europe: electoral system disproportionality, party system fragmentation, and the polarization of the electorate. We use an original dataset of statements made by political actors during eighteen electoral campaigns in nine European countries. Our multinomial logit model suggests that increasing disproportionality slightly increases negativity, while thanks to parties competing on the same market, less polarized electorates invite more negative political campaigns. Finally, we find a U-shaped relationship between party system fragmentation and negativity: Increasing the number of parties, negativity decreases first, only to start increasing again once the party system becomes very fragmented. We explain this with parties altering their coalition strategies with the changing number of parties: Less fragmentation makes it more likely to having to step into coalition with the competitors, thus decreasing negativity, while in very fragmented systems, parties not needed to any potential coalitions become easy targets to negative campaign.

Candidate Features and Candidate Selection Patterns in Hungary, 1994–2010

Although 25 years have passed since the Hungarian transition of 1989–90, to date, there have been no systematic analyses of candidate characteristics and candidate selection patterns. This article asks: What candidate features do party selectorates value when deciding on candidate nominations from 1994 to 2010? I investigate the candidate selection patterns of Hungarian parties though candidates’ placement on the party lists. I use an original data set containing the whole universe of candidates running in democratic elections between 1994 and 2010. I describe the Hungarian candidate scene with regard to electoral and legislative experience, age and gender of the candidates. I apply multilevel linear regressions to obtain the net effect of these characteristics on party list placements. I find first, that parties place more experienced candidates higher on the party lists. Second, selectors punish older candidates by placing them lower on party lists. Third, women also face a disadvantage in list placements: parties place men in better positions on the lists.