Physics

Physical distancing, as a measure to contain the spreading of Covid-19, is defining a "new normal". Unless belonging to a family, pedestrians in shared spaces are asked to observe a minimal (country-dependent) pairwise distance. Coherently, managers of public spaces may be tasked with the enforcement or monitoring of this constraint. As privacy-respectful real-time tracking of pedestrian dynamics in public spaces is a growing reality, it is natural to leverage on these tools to analyze the adherence to physical distancing and compare the effectiveness of crowd management measurements. Typical questions are: "in which conditions non-family members infringed social distancing?", "Are there repeated offenders?", and "How are new crowd management measures performing?". Notably, dealing with large crowds, e.g. in train stations, gets rapidly computationally challenging. In this work we have a two-fold aim: first, we propose an efficient and scalable analysis framework to process, offline or in real-time, pedestrian tracking data via a sparse graph. The framework tackles efficiently all the questions mentioned above, representing pedestrian-pedestrian interactions via vector-weighted graph connections. On this basis, we can disentangle distance offenders and family members in a privacy-compliant way. Second, we present a thorough analysis of mutual distances and exposure-times in a Dutch train platform, comparing pre-Covid and current data via physics observables as Radial Distribution Functions. The versatility and simplicity of this approach, developed to analyze crowd management measures in public transport facilities, enable to tackle issues beyond physical distancing, for instance the privacy-respectful detection of groups and the analysis of their motion patterns.

Complex network infrastructure systems for power-supply, communication, and transportation support our economical and social activities, however they are extremely vulnerable against the frequently increasing large disasters or attacks. Thus, a reconstructing from damaged network is rather advisable than empirically performed recovering to the original vulnerable one. In order to reconstruct a sustainable network, we focus on enhancing loops so as not to be trees as possible by node removals. Although this optimization is corresponded to an intractable combinatorial problem, we propose self-healing methods based on enhancing loops in applying an approximate calculation inspired from a statistical physics approach. We show that both higher robustness and efficiency are obtained in our proposed methods with saving the resource of links and ports than ones in the conventional healing methods. Moreover, the reconstructed network by healing can become more tolerant than the original one before attacks, when some extent of damaged links are reusable or compensated as investment of resource. These results will be open up the potential of network reconstruction by self-healing with adaptive capacity in the meaning of resilience.

The study of motifs in networks can help researchers uncover links between the structure and function of networks in biology, sociology, economics, and many other areas. Empirical studies of networks have identified feedback loops, feedforward loops, and several other small structures as "motifs" that occur frequently in real-world networks and may contribute by various mechanisms to important functions in these systems. However, these mechanisms are unknown for many of these motifs. We propose to distinguish between "structure motifs" (i.e., graphlets) in networks and "process motifs" (which we define as structured sets of walks) on networks and consider process motifs as building blocks of processes on networks. Using the steady-state covariances and steady-state correlations in a multivariate Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process on a network as examples, we demonstrate that the distinction between structure motifs and process motifs makes it possible to gain quantitative insights into mechanisms that contribute to important functions of dynamical systems on networks.

The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given disease is to move this threshold by non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, past the epidemic threshold corresponding to the disease, thereby tipping the system from epidemic into a non-epidemic regime. Modeling the disease as a spreading process on a social graph, social distancing can be modeled by removing some of the graphs links. It has been conjectured that the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the resulting graph corresponds to the systems epidemic threshold. Here we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to study those link removals that do well at reducing the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. The MCMC method generates samples from the relative canonical network ensemble with a defined expectation value of λ max . We call this the "well-controlling network ensemble" (WCNE) and compare its structure to randomly thinned networks with the same link density. We observe that networks in the WCNE tend to be more homogeneous in the degree distribution and use this insight to define two ad-hoc removal strategies, which also substantially reduce the largest eigenvalue. A targeted removal of 80\% of links can be as effective as a random removal of 90\%, leaving individuals with twice as many contacts.

We introduce a simple and wide class of multifractal spatial point patterns as Cox processes which intensity is multifractal, i.e., the class of Poisson processes with a stochastic intensity corresponding to a random multifractal measure. We then propose a maximum likelihood approach by means of a standard Expectation-Maximization procedure in order to estimate the distribution of these intensities at all scales. This provides, as validated on various numerical examples, a simple framework to estimate the scaling laws and therefore the multifractal properties for this class of spatial point processes. The wildfire distribution gathered in the Prométhée French Mediterranean wildfire database is investigated within this approach that notably allows us to compute the statistical moments associated with the spatial distribution of annual likelihood of fire event occurence. We show that for each order q , these moments display a well defined scaling behavior with a non-linear spectrum of scaling exponents ζ q . From our study, it thus appears that the spatial distribution of the widlfire ignition annual risk can be described by a non-trivial, multifractal singularity spectrum and that this risk cannot be reduced to providing a number of events per k m 2 . Our analysis is confirmed by a direct spatial correlation estimation of the intensity logarithms whose the peculiar slowly decreasing shape corresponds to the hallmark of multifractal cascades. The multifractal features appear to be constant over time and similar over the three regions that are studied.

We present an integrated approach to analyse the multi-lead ECG data using the frame work of multiplex recurrence networks (MRNs). We explore how their intralayer and interlayer topological features can capture the subtle variations in the recurrence patterns of the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics. We find MRNs from ECG data of healthy cases are significantly more coherent with high mutual information and less divergence between respective degree distributions. In cases of diseases, significant differences in specific measures of similarity between layers are seen. The coherence is affected most in the cases of diseases associated with localized abnormality such as bundle branch block. We note that it is important to do a comprehensive analysis using all the measures to arrive at disease-specific patterns. Our approach is very general and as such can be applied in any other domain where multivariate or multi-channel data are available from highly complex systems.

We study the derivation of generic high order macroscopic traffic models from a follow-the-leader particle description via a kinetic approach. First, we recover a third order traffic model as the hydrodynamic limit of an Enskog-type kinetic equation. Next, we introduce in the vehicle interactions a binary control modelling the automatic feedback provided by driver-assist vehicles and we upscale such a new particle description by means of another Enskog-based hydrodynamic limit. The resulting macroscopic model is now a Generic Second Order Model (GSOM), which contains in turn a control term inherited from the microscopic interactions. We show that such a control may be chosen so as to optimise global traffic trends, such as the vehicle flux or the road congestion, constrained by the GSOM dynamics. By means of numerical simulations, we investigate the effect of this control hierarchy in some specific case studies, which exemplify the multiscale path from the vehicle-wise implementation of a driver-assist control to its optimal hydrodynamic design.

Systems with lattice geometry can be renormalized exploiting their embedding in metric space, which naturally defines the coarse-grained nodes. By contrast, complex networks defy the usual techniques because of their small-world character and lack of explicit metric embedding. Current network renormalization approaches require strong assumptions (e.g. community structure, hyperbolicity, scale-free topology), thus remaining incompatible with generic graphs and ordinary lattices. Here we introduce a graph renormalization scheme valid for any hierarchy of coarse-grainings, thereby allowing for the definition of `block nodes' across multiple scales. This approach reveals a necessary and specific dependence of network topology on an additive hidden variable attached to nodes, plus optional dyadic factors. Renormalizable networks turn out to be consistent with a unique specification of the fitness model, while they are incompatible with preferential attachment, the configuration model or the stochastic blockmodel. These results highlight a deep conceptual distinction between scale-free and scale-invariant networks, and provide a geometry-free route to renormalization. If the hidden variables are annealed, the model spontaneously leads to realistic scale-free networks with cut-off. If they are quenched, the model can be used to renormalize real-world networks with node attributes and distance-dependence or communities. As an example we derive an accurate multiscale model of the International Trade Network applicable across hierarchical geographic partitions.

New York City (NYC) is entering Phase 4 of the state's reopening plan, starting July 20, 2020. This white paper updates travel trends observed during the first three reopening phases and highlights the spatial distributions in terms of bus speeds and Citi Bike trips, and further investigates the role of micro-mobility in the pandemic response.

To mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, officials have employed social distancing and stay-at-home measures, with increased attention to room ventilation emerging only more recently. Effective distancing practices for open spaces can be ineffective for poorly ventilated spaces, both of which are commonly filled with turbulent air. This is typical for indoor spaces that use mixing ventilation. While turbulence initially reduces the risk of infection near a virion-source, it eventually increases the exposure risk for all occupants in a space without ventilation. To complement detailed models aimed at precision, minimalist frameworks are useful to facilitate order of magnitude estimates for how much ventilation provides safety, particularly when circumstances require practical decisions with limited options. Applying basic principles of transport and diffusion, we estimate the time-scale for virions injected into a room of turbulent air to infect an occupant, distinguishing cases of low vs. high initial virion mass loads and virion-destroying vs. virion-reflecting walls. We consider the effect of an open window as a proxy for ventilation. When the airflow is dominated by isotropic turbulence, the minimum area needed to ensure safety depends only on the ratio of total viral load to threshold load for infection. The minimalist estimates here convey simply that the equivalent of ventilation by modest sized open window in classrooms and workplaces significantly improves safety.