Physics

In this work, we address the connection between population density centers in urban areas, and the nature of human flows between such centers, in shaping the vulnerability to the onset of contagious diseases. A study of 163 cities, chosen from four different continents reveals a universal trend, whereby the risk induced by human mobility increases in those cities where mobility flows are predominantly between high population density centers. We apply our formalism to the spread of SARS-COV-2 in the United States, providing a plausible explanation for the observed heterogeneity in the spreading process across cities. Armed with this insight, we propose realistic mitigation strategies (less severe than lockdowns), based on modifying the mobility in cities. Our results suggest that an optimal control strategy involves an asymmetric policy that restricts flows entering the most vulnerable areas but allowing residents to continue their usual mobility patterns.

Mutualistic networks have attracted increasing attention in the ecological literature in the last decades as they play a key role in the maintenance of biodiversity. Here, we develop an analytical framework to study the structural stability of these networks including both mutualistic and competitive interactions. Analytical and numerical analyses show that the structure of the competitive network fundamentally alters the necessary conditions for species coexistence in communities. Using 50 real mutualistic networks, we show that when the relative importance of shared partners is incorporated via weighted competition, the feasibility area in the parameter space is highly correlated with May's stability criteria and can be predicted by a functional relationship between the number of species, the network connectance and the average interaction strength in the community. Our work reopens a decade-long debate about the complexity-stability relationship in ecological communities, and highlights the role of the relative structures of different interaction types.

We investigate a multi-agent model of firms in an R\&D network. Each firm is characterized by its knowledge stock x i (t) , which follows a non-linear dynamics. It can grow with the input from other firms, i.e., by knowledge transfer, and decays otherwise. Maintaining interactions is costly. Firms can leave the network if their expected knowledge growth is not realized, which may cause other firms to also leave the network. The paper discusses two bottom-up intervention scenarios to prevent, reduce, or delay cascades of firms leaving. The first one is based on the formalism of network controllability, in which driver nodes are identified and subsequently incentivized, by reducing their costs. The second one combines node interventions and network interventions. It proposes the controlled removal of a single firm and the random replacement of firms leaving. This allows to generate small cascades, which prevents the occurrence of large cascades. We find that both approaches successfully mitigate cascades and thus improve the resilience of the R\&D network.

We present a baseline stochastic framework for assessing inter-sectorial relationships in a generic economy. We show that - irrespective of the specific features of the technology matrix for a given country or a particular year - the Leontief multipliers (and any upstreamness/downstreamness indicator computed from the Leontief inverse matrix) follow a universal pattern, which we characterize analytically. We formulate a universal benchmark to assess the structural inter-dependence of sectors in a generic economy. Several empirical results on World Input-Output Database (WIOD, 2013 Release) are presented that corroborate our findings.

Currently, there is an increasing number of super high-rise buildings in urban cities, the issue of evacuation in emergencies from such buildings comes to the fore. An evacuation experiment was carried out by our group in Shanghai Tower, it was found that the evacuation speed of pedestrians evacuated from the 126th floor was always slower than that of those from the 117th floor. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis that the expected evacuation distance will affect pedestrians' movement speed. In order to verify our conjecture, we conduct an experiment in a 12-story office building, that is, to study whether there would be an influence and what kind of influence would be caused on speed by setting the evacuation distance for participants in advance. According to the results, we find that with the increase of expected evacuation distance, the movement speed of pedestrians will decrease, which confirms our hypothesis. At the same time, we give the relation between the increase rate of evacuation distance and the decrease rate of speed. It also can be found that with the increase of expected evacuation distance, the speed decrease rate of the male is greater than that for female. In addition, we study the effects of actual evacuation distance, gender, BMI on evacuation speed. Finally, we obtain the correlation between heart rate and speed during evacuation. The results in this paper are beneficial to the study of pedestrian evacuation in super high-rise buildings.

We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study the evolution over time of Boltzmann-type equations describing the number densities of social contacts of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals, whose proportions are driven by a classical SIR-type compartmental model in epidemiology. Explicit calculations show that the spread of the disease is closely related to moments of the contact distribution. Furthermore, the kinetic model allows to clarify how a selective control can be assumed to achieve a minimal lockdown strategy by only reducing individuals undergoing a very large number of daily contacts. We conduct numerical simulations which confirm the ability of the model to describe different phenomena characteristic of the rapid spread of an epidemic. Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, a last part is dedicated to fit numerical solutions of the proposed model with infection data coming from different European countries.

In this work we develop a series of techniques to quantify the presence of bias and censorship in newspapers. These algorithms are tested analyzing the occurrence of keywords `killed' and `suicide' (`morti', `suicidio' in Italian) and their changes over time, gender and reported location on the complete online archives (42 million records) of the major US newspaper (The New York Times) and the three major Italian ones (Il Corriere della Sera, La Repubblica, La Stampa). Since the Italian language distinguishes between the female and male cases, we find the presence of gender bias in all Italian newspapers, with reported single female deaths to be about one-third of those involving single men. We show evidence of censorship in Italian newspapers both during World War 1 and during the Italian Fascist regime. Censorship in all countries during World Wars and in Italy during the Fascist period is a historically ascertained fact, but so far there was no estimate on the amount on censorship in newspaper reporting: in this work we estimate that about 75% of domestic deaths and suicides were not reported. This is also confirmed by statistical analysis of the distribution of the least significant digit of the number of reported deaths. We also find that the distribution function of the number of articles vs. the number of deaths reported in articles follows a power law, which is broken (with fewer articles being written) when reporting on few deaths occurring in foreign countries. The lack of articles is found to grow with geographical distance from the nation where the newspaper is being printed.

The international trade is one of the classic areas of study in economics. Nowadays, given the availability of data, the tools used for the analysis can be complemented and enriched with new methodologies and techniques that go beyond the traditional approach. The present paper shows the application of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation Models, a well known technique from the area of Natural Language Processing, to search for latent dimensions in the product space of international trade, and their distribution across countries over time. We apply this technique to a dataset of countries' exports of goods from 1962 to 2016. The findings show the possibility to generate higher level classifications of goods based on the empirical evidence, and also allow to study the distribution of those classifications within countries. The latter show interesting insights about countries' trade specialisation.

Mean Field Game is a rather new field initially developed in applied mathematics and engineering in order to deal with the dynamics of a large number of controlled agents or objects in interaction. For a large class of these models, there exists a deep relationship between the associated system of equations and the non linear Schrödinger equation, which allows to get new insights on the structure of their solutions. In this work, we deal with related aspects of integrability for such systems, exhibiting in some cases a full hierarchy of conserved quantities, and bringing some new questions which arise in this specific context.

We employ an agent-based model for cultural dynamics to investigate the effects of spatial heterogeneities on the collective behavior of a social system. We introduce heterogeneity as a random distribution of defects or imperfections in a two-dimensional lattice. Two types of defects are considered separately: obstacles that represent geographic features, and opinion leaders, described as agents exerting unidirectional influence on other agents. In both cases, we characterize two collective phases on the space of parameters of the system, given by the density of defects and a quantity expressing the number of available states: one ordered phase, consisting of a large homogeneous group; and a disordered phase, where many small cultural groups coexist. In the case of leaders, the homogeneous state corresponds to their state. We find that a high enough density of obstacles contributes to cultural diversity in the system. On the other hand, we find a nontrivial effect when opinion leaders are distributed in the system: if their density is greater than some threshold value, leaders are no longer efficient in imposing their state to the population, but they actually promote multiculturality. In this situation, we uncover that leaders, as well as obstacles, serve as locations for the formation of boundaries and segregation between different cultural groups. Moreover, a lower density of leaders than obstacles is needed to induce multiculturality in the system.