A.A.M. Holtslag

A High Resolution Air Mass Transformation Model for Short-Range Weather Forecasting

Abstract This paper describes a high resolution air mass transformation (AMT) model. The model is intended for short-range weather forecasts of the temperature and humidity profiles in the lower atmosphere, the structure of the boundary layer, the boundary layer height, and the amount of boundary layer clouds. The AMT model consists of a one-dimensional, multilayer boundary layer model, which is advected along trajectories from a source region to a receptor point. The trajectories are calculated within a larger scale (limited area) model. The initial profiles for temperature and humidity are obtained from observed radiosondes. The paper describes the physical and dynamical background of the model. With the model we have made case studies of the development of stratocumulus over the North Sea, and have simulated the representation of clear skies over land. The output of the model is compared with the output of the ECMWF model and the current operational bulk AMT model. Sensitivity of the model to boundary ...

Applied modelling of the nighttime surface energy balance over land.

Abstract In this paper a semiempirical scheme is proposed which relates the nocturnal surface fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, and momentum to routine weather data. The main components of the surface radiation and energy balance over land are described on a half-hourly basis. Observations over a grass-covered surface at Cabauw are used to investigate topics proposed in the literature, and to develop new parameterizations. The input data of the scheme are total cloud cover, wind speed, air temperature, and specific humidity deficit at single heights in the atmospheric surface layer. A semiempirical expression is proposed for the estimation of the soil heat flux. Also the relation between the surface radiation temperature and the temperature at the level of the roughness length is described semiempirically. It is found that their difference is considerable, especially for low wind speeds. The output of the scheme is presented in terms of the main forcing terms. On average, the agreement of the model qu...

Influence of Soil Moisture on Boundary Layer Cloud Development

Abstract The daytime interaction of the land surface with the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is studied using a coupled one-dimensional (column) land surface–ABL model. This is an extension of earlier work that focused on modeling the ABL for 31 May 1978 at Cabauw, Netherlands; previously, it was found that coupled land–atmosphere tests using a simple land surface scheme did not accurately represent surface fluxes and coupled ABL development. Here, findings from that earlier study on ABL parameterization are utilized, and include a more sophisticated land surface scheme. This land surface scheme allows the land–atmosphere system to respond interactively with the ABL. Results indicate that in coupled land–atmosphere model runs, realistic daytime surface fluxes and atmospheric profiles are produced, even in the presence of ABL clouds (shallow cumulus). Subsequently, the role of soil moisture in the development of ABL clouds is explored in terms of a new relative humidity tendency equation at the ABL top w...

Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layers and Diurnal Cycles: Challenges for Weather and Climate Models

The representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is an important part of weather and climate models and impacts many applications such as air quality and wind energy. Over the years, the performance in modeling 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed has improved but errors are still significant. This is in particular the case under clear skies and low wind speed conditions at night as well as during winter in stably stratified conditions over land and ice. In this paper, the authors review these issues and provide an overview of the current understanding and model performance. Results from weather forecast and climate models are used to illustrate the state of the art as well as findings and recommendations from three intercomparison studies held within the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). Within GABLS, the focus has been on the examination of the representation of the stable boundary layer and the diurnal cycle over land in clear-sky conditions. For thi...

A Simple Parameterization of the Surface Fluxes of Sensible and Latent Heat During Daytime Compared with the Penman-Monteith Concept

Abstract A comparison is made between two methods for determining the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat during daytime. The first method, known as the Penman-Monteith approach, incorporates a more complete description of the physics. However, it needs a relatively large number of input parameters, which is inconvenient in many applications. The second method is a modification of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation model, which needs only net radiation, air temperature and an indication of the moisture condition at the surface. Both models are compared on the basis of hourly micro-meteorological data above short grass obtained in the Netherlands during the summer of 1977. The experiments were performed under predominantly unstable conditions [0 ≥ z/L0 ≥ −0.3z = (mean) measuring height, L0 = Obukhov length] with weak or no advection. It appears that, under these environmental conditions, the models have a similar skill. Therefore, the simple parameterization is preferred for practical purposes. It rev...

Intermittent Turbulence in the Stable Boundary Layer over Land. Part III: A Classification for Observations during CASES-99

Abstract In this paper a classification of stable boundary layer regimes is presented based on observations of near-surface turbulence during the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study-1999 (CASES-99). It is found that the different nights can be divided into three subclasses: a turbulent regime, an intermittent regime, and a radiative regime, which confirms the findings of two companion papers that use a simplified theoretical model (it is noted that its simpliflied structure limits the model generality to near-surface flows). The papers predict the occurrence of stable boundary layer regimes in terms of external forcing parameters such as the (effective) pressure gradient and radiative forcing. The classification in the present work supports these predictions and shows that the predictions are robust in a qualitative sense. As such, it is, for example, shown that intermittent turbulence is most likely to occur in clear-sky conditions with a moderately weak effective pressure gradient. The quantit...

Modeling the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer coupled to the land surface for three contrasting nights in CASES-99

Abstract The modeling and prediction of the stable boundary layer over land is a persistent, problematic feature in weather, climate, and air quality topics. Here, the performance of a state-of-the-art single-column boundary layer model is evaluated with observations from the 1999 Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) field experiment. Very high model resolution in the atmosphere and the soil is utilized to represent three different stable boundary layer archetypes, namely, a fully turbulent night, an intermittently turbulent night, and a radiative night with hardly any turbulence (all at clear skies). Each archetype represents a different class of atmospheric stability. In the current model, the atmosphere is fully coupled to a vegetation layer and the underlying soil. In addition, stability functions (local scaling) are utilized based on in situ observations. Overall it is found that the vertical structure, the surface fluxes (apart from the intermittent character) and the surface tem...

A conceptual view on inertial oscillations and nocturnal low-level jets

In the present work Blackadar’s concept of nocturnal inertial oscillations is extended. Blackadar’s concept describes frictionless inertial oscillations above the nocturnal inversion layer. The current work includes frictional effects within the nocturnal boundary layer. It is shown that the nocturnal wind speed profile describes an oscillation around the nocturnal equilibrium wind vector, rather than around the geostrophic wind vector (as in the Blackadar case). By using this perspective, continuous time-dependent wind profiles are predicted. As such, information on both the height and the magnitude of the nocturnal low-level jet is available as a function of time. Preliminary analysis shows that the proposed extension performs well in comparison with observations when a simple Ekman model is used to represent the equilibrium state in combination with a realistic initial velocity profile. In addition to jet dynamics, backward inertial oscillations are predicted at lower levels close to the surface, which also appear to be present in observations. The backward oscillation forms an important mechanism behind weakening low-level winds during the afternoon transition. Both observational and theoretical modeling studies are needed to explore this phenomenon further.

Exploring self-correlation in flux–gradient relationships for stably stratified conditions

Abstract In this paper, the degree of scatter in flux–gradient relationships for stably stratified conditions is analyzed. It is generally found that scatter in the dimensionless lapse rate ϕh is larger than in the dimensionless shear ϕm when plotted versus the stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length). Here, this phenomenon is explained to be a result of self-correlation due to the occurrence of the momentum and the heat flux on both axes, measurement uncertainties, and other possibly relevant physical processes left aside. It is shown that the ratio between relative errors in the turbulent fluxes influences the orientation of self-correlation in the flux–gradient relationships. In stable conditions, the scatter in ϕm is largely suppressed by self-correlation while for ϕh this is not the case (vice versa for unstable stratification). An alternative way of plotting is discussed for determining the slope of the linear ϕm function.

Evaluation of Limited-Area Models for the Representation of the Diurnal Cycle and Contrasting Nights in CASES-99

This study evaluates the ability of three limited-area models [the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), the Coupled Ocean– Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and the High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM)] to predict the diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during the Cooperative Atmosphere–Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99) experimental campaign. Special attention is paid to the stable ABL. Limited-area model results for different ABL parameterizations and different radiation transfer parameterizations are compared with the in situ observations. Model forecasts were found to be sensitive to the choice of the ABL parameterization both during the day and at night. At night, forecasts are particularly sensitive to the radiation scheme. All three models underestimate the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle (DTR) and the near-surface wind speed. Furthermore, they overestimate the stable boundary layer height for windy conditions and underestimate the stratification of nighttime surface inversions. Favorable parameterizations for the stable boundary layer enable rapid surface cooling, and they have limited turbulent mixing. It was also found that a relatively large model domain is required to model the Great Plains low-level jet. A new scheme is implemented for the stable boundary layer in the MediumRange Forecast Model (MRF). This scheme introduces a vegetation layer, a new formulation for the soil heat flux, and turbulent mixing based on the local scaling hypothesis. The new scheme improves the representation of surface temperature (especially for weak winds) and the stable boundary layer structure.