A. A. Shirov

Evaluation of the potential effect of sanctions on the economic development of Russia and the European Union

The article analyzes different directions of the main macroeconomic effects of preserving the sanctions regime on the trade and economic relations of Russia and the European Union and evaluates the short-, mid- and long-term negative effects of the sanctions regime. The authors have come to the conclusion that both sides will suffer substantial losses due to the sanctions regime.

Macroeconomic dynamics of the Russian economy in the long term

The article presents the main provisions of the macroeconomic section of the regular long term forecasts of the Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, prepared in 2012. The key idea of the forecast is based on an assessment of the growth potential of the Russian economy. It is necessary for the definition of an economic policy aimed at achieving this potential result in the perspective until 2030.

Recovery of economic growth in Russia

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the features of the regional economic growth recovery policy.

The new economic policy — The policy of economic growth

At the beginning of 2013 a disturbing trend of plum meting rates of economic growth in Russia continued. In the first quarter of this year the GDP grew by some 1% which was worse than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. Given this the Min istry now reconsiders its forecast for economic growth in 2013 as decelerating. Under a conservative scenario the GDP growth should slow down to below 3%. According to an optimistic scenario which involves implementation of infrastructure projects the indicator above should reach some 3.2%.

Development of Scenario Conditions as a Key Stage of Economic Forecast Preparation

Formation of coordinated economic development forecasts is impossible without elaborating hypotheses and assumptions about the development of the world economy, situation in key commodity and exchange markets, parameters of economic policy, etc. The quality of forecasts and their feasibility mainly depend on how well these indices are coordinated. Different approaches to the formation of macroeconomic scenarios are considered in the paper in the framework of preparation of macroeconomic forecasts of Russia’s economic development in the medium- and long-term perspective.

From a crisis of financing mechanisms to sustainable economic growth

The article examines the main factors that shaped the negative macroeconomic trends in the Russian economy in 2013–2016. The author estimates the current potential of long-term economic growth and changes compared to the situation after the crisis of 2008–2009. Requirements for a promising model of funding economic growth are formed.

System of Measures to Recovery of Economic Growth in Russia

The article proposes and substantiates the main directions and measures of economic policy that allow us to increase the pace and quality of economic growth in Russia.

ROLE OF INSTRUMENTAL METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING FOR SUBSTANTIATING ECONOMIC POLICY

The models that are becoming the most widespread in the modern Russian economy, which are used for the practical substantiation of measures in the sphere of economic policy, have been analyzed in the paper. The key aspects related to the quality characteristics of the practical models have been defined. The gap between statistical data-collection methods has been stated, as well as the theoretical and methodical bases of some model structures. The place of the economic models has been represented in the course of discussion on the prospects of economic development.

Scientific and technological dimensions of the macrostructural forecast

This paper explores possible approaches to quantifying the relationship between expenditures on research and development and economic development. The mechanisms that underpin the transfer of scientific results via the imports of final products, goods, and services have been analyzed. The impact of total R&D costs on the dynamic and structural characteristics of economic development are investigated. The level of R&D costs, which is required in the medium term in order to pursue the constructive scenario for the development of the Russian economy, has been estimated.

Scenario modeling of the stability of the russian budget system against external economic shocks in 2013–2015

The results of forecast modeling of the Russian budget system’s stability against external economic shocks are presented in the paper. Two scenarios are considered: Scenario 1 or “short-term crisis” with its acute phase lasting about three quarters (similarly to the crisis of 2008–2009) and Scenario 2 or “protracted crisis,” which implies a duration of crisis phenomena of about a year and a half (to put it hypothetically, in 2013–2014). On the basis of the scenario forecast modeling results, the conclusion is drawn that regional budgets are the weakest link of the Russian budget system. The crisis period is characterized by an urgent necessity of handing over a part of tax revenues received by the federal budget to the regional level and increasing money transfers to the budgets of federal subjects.