M. Yu. Ksenofontov

Recovery of economic growth in Russia

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the features of the regional economic growth recovery policy.

The new economic policy — The policy of economic growth

At the beginning of 2013 a disturbing trend of plum meting rates of economic growth in Russia continued. In the first quarter of this year the GDP grew by some 1% which was worse than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. Given this the Min istry now reconsiders its forecast for economic growth in 2013 as decelerating. Under a conservative scenario the GDP growth should slow down to below 3%. According to an optimistic scenario which involves implementation of infrastructure projects the indicator above should reach some 3.2%.

System of Measures to Recovery of Economic Growth in Russia

The article proposes and substantiates the main directions and measures of economic policy that allow us to increase the pace and quality of economic growth in Russia.

On the assessment of the potential expansion of agricultural production and its structural shifts

This paper deals with retrospective trends in the development of Russian agriculture and the longterm potential for agricultural production growth. Based on this analysis, the importance of adjusting agricultural policy is justified.

Forecast-analytical studies on the priorities of agrifood policy

The article is addressed to some methodological problems related to the justification of targets and instruments in agrifood policy, specifically, to some alternative ideas regarding the role of forecast procedures in the development of socioeconomic policy, to “formal” decisions as crucial factors in the content and results of forecast and analytical studies, and to the applied potential of the methodological thesis about the contradictory character of socioeconomic processes. Most of the considered cases are relevant not only in the context of development of agrarian and food policy, but also in the discussion of problems and development policies of other sectors and the national economy as a whole.

Scenario forecasting as an agricultural strategy development instrument

Methodological considerations that appeared in the previous issue of this journal are specified. The logic of socioeconomic threat formation is presented under an inertial scenario of agricultural development. The interdependence between improving the competitiveness of agricultural production, rural socioeconomic development, and nature management rationalization, which necessitates the elaboration of a comprehensive government policy, is demonstrated. A system of prognostic-analytical calculations is described; estimates are obtained to indicate a significant potential for increasing meat and dairy production and, hence, the strategic importance of the policy to improve the competitiveness of the Russian livestock industry. These findings may serve as the case for early development of a foundation for an agricultural and food policy, which is pertinent to the situation of approaching the “natural ceiling” of agricultural growth targeted at the domestic market.

Problems and prospects for the development of high-technology cardiology in Russia

This paper describes the role of high-technology cardiology in overcoming the phenomenon of supermortality due to diseases of the circulatory system. The authors attempt a systemic analysis of the barriers constraining progress in this area of medicine in the Russian Federation and offer a preliminary assessment of the potential for growth in high-technology cardiology services, along with characterizing the key conceptual elements of a development strategy and the problems that might arise during its design and implementation.

The need for switching to a new paradigm of the development and implementation of agricultural and food policy

This forecast of a possible future increase in the capacity of the domestic agricultural market implies that the existing potential for growth in agricultural production, based on the food and light industries’ demand for food and raw materials, may exhaust by the late 2020s. Detailed illustrations show that the saturation of traditional markets will lead to significant changes in the logic of interdependence between various developmental aspects of the agro-industrial complex (AIC) and in the logic of forming problem situations, which will arise in the development of the agrarian sector in the medium and long term. These changes must be reflected in approaches to the development and implementation of agricultural and food policy.

Development of Dairy Farming in the Context of Food Security Policy in Russia

The current state and possibilities of ensuring Russia’s food security in the dairy market have been analyzed. The development limitations of the resource base of dairy farming and the domestic demand for dairy products have been described.

Assessing Multiplier Effects in the Russian Economy: Input-Output Approach

The article presents the calculation of multiplier effects in the modern economy of Russia. The output multipliers by different sectors of the economy have been estimated using a method based on a static input–output model. The article has analyzed the limitations and possibilities of applying a method of calculating the multiplier effects.