A. Dalla Marta

Analysis of the relationships between climate variability and grapevine phenology in the Nobile di Montepulciano wine production area.

Climate represents one of the main inputs necessary for plants to complete their vegetative–productive cycle, having a direct effect on the onset and duration of phenological stages and development of crops. Equally important are its indirect effects, affecting field operations such as the application of fertilizer, pruning and crop protection, finally determining the yield. In the present study, phenological stages of the Sangiovese grapevine for the production of Nobile di Montepulciano wine were analysed and related to historical series of meteorological information (since 1970 in Tuscany, Italy). Weather conditions were described through large-scale meteorological information; in particular geopotential height at the 500 hPa level (500 hPa GPH) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were considered. All data were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA-CIRES) Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, available from the NOAA-CIRES website ( http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ ) and processed by the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis Project. Conventional meteorological data, such as air temperature and cumulated rainfall, from ground weather stations were also used. The effects of meteorological parameters on crop phenology (bud-break, flowering and harvest time) were investigated by means of regression analysis, while teleconnections between phenological data and large-scale meteo-climatological data were analysed through correlation maps created using the interactive plotting and analysis link from the NOAA-CIRES website ( http://www.cdc.noaa.gov ). All correlations were calculated on a monthly to a multi-monthly basis, and also in relation to the different physiological stages of the crop, from 1970 to 2006. The climate change and variability impact on the crop was investigated by trend analysis of meteorological information and its effect on the onset of grapevine phenological stages. The results demonstrated that large-scale meteorological information has a significant effect on the onset of the phenological stages of grapevine. In particular, winter NAO was negatively correlated with bud-break and flowering dates, while GPH of February–March, March–May and May–September were negatively correlated with bud-break, flowering and harvest dates, respectively. The trend analysis demonstrated that the change and variability of climate, due to global warming, directly affects the development of grapevine leading to an anticipation of all considered phenophases.

Durum wheat in-field monitoring and early-yield prediction: assessment of potential use of high resolution satellite imagery in a hilly area of Tuscany, Central Italy

Modern agriculture is based on the control of in-field variability, which is determined by the interactions of numerous factors such as soil, climate and crop. For this reason, the use of remote sensing is becoming increasingly important, thanks to the technological development of satellites able to supply information with high spatial resolution and revisit frequency. Despite the large number of studies on the use of remote sensing for crop monitoring, very few have addressed the problem of spatial variability at field scale or the early prediction of crop yield and grain quality. The aim of the current research was to assess the potential use of high resolution satellite imagery for monitoring durum wheat growth and development, addressing forecast grain yield and protein content, through vegetation indices at two stages of crop development. To best represent the natural variability of agricultural production, the study was conducted in wheat fields managed by local farmers. As regards dry weight, leaf area index and nitrogen (N) content, the possibility of describing the crop state is evident at stem elongation, while at anthesis this potential is completely lost. However, satellites seem to be unable to estimate the N concentration. Aboveground biomass accumulated from emergence to stem elongation is strictly related to the final yield, while it has been confirmed that the crop parameters observed at anthesis are less informative, despite approaching harvesting time.

Using Simulation Modelling as a Policy Option in Coping with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties

Agricultural systems are largely dependent on weather and climate, then management and planning decisions are made in condition of risk or uncertainty due to the high level of complexity of the agricultural systems. Despite the important advances in technology over the last decades, many production factors are not well defined and they are outside of the farmer control (Orlandini and Cappugi 2001). The lack of precise information increases the level of uncertainty in farm management. To overcome these problems, farmers increased the level of energy and chemical inputs above the necessary requirements with the aim of decreasing the impacts of the variability of agricultural systems. Unfortunately, the consequence of this strategy was the increasing of environmental impact and production costs without obtaining the expected goal (Travis et al. 1992). A solution to interrupt this negative trend is to substitute expensive and pollutant chemical and energy inputs with elaborated information of high quality. In this way it is possible to decrease the risk of the uncertainties of decision making and thus to minimise the application of excessive inputs and increase the potential income (Maracchi 2001).

Modelling durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) grain protein concentration

F. ORLANDO, M. MANCINI, R. MOTHA, J.J. QU, S. ORLANDINI AND A. DALLA MARTA* Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Production, Landscape, Agroenergy – CASSANDRA Lab., University of Milan, Via Celoria 2-20133 Milan, Italy 2 Foundation for Climate and Sustainability, Via Caproni 8-50145 Florence, Italy Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18-50144 Florence, Italy Global Environment and Natural Resources Institute (GENRI), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA