Francesca Orlando

Uncertainty in crop model predictions

Crop models are used to estimate crop productivity under future climate projections, and modellers manage uncertainty by considering different scenarios and GCMs, using a range of crop simulators. Five crop models and 20 users were arranged in a randomized block design with four replicates. Parameters for maize (well studied by modellers) and rapeseed (almost ignored) were calibrated. While all models were accurate for maize (RRMSE from 16.5% to 25.9%), they were, to some extent, unsuitable for rapeseed. Although differences between biomass simulated by the models were generally significant for rapeseed, they were significant only in 30% of the cases for maize. This could suggest that in case of models well suited to a crop, user subjectivity (which explained 14% of total variance in maize outputs) can hide differences in model algorithms and, consequently, the uncertainty due to parameterization should be better investigated. Five crop models and 20 users were arranged in four randomized blocks.The significance of model factor for maize and rapeseed was evaluated.All models achieved good performance for maize and poor for rapeseed.Differences between models were significant only in 30% of the cases for maize.Parameterization uncertainty should be explicitly managed also in model ensembles.

Durum wheat in-field monitoring and early-yield prediction: assessment of potential use of high resolution satellite imagery in a hilly area of Tuscany, Central Italy

Modern agriculture is based on the control of in-field variability, which is determined by the interactions of numerous factors such as soil, climate and crop. For this reason, the use of remote sensing is becoming increasingly important, thanks to the technological development of satellites able to supply information with high spatial resolution and revisit frequency. Despite the large number of studies on the use of remote sensing for crop monitoring, very few have addressed the problem of spatial variability at field scale or the early prediction of crop yield and grain quality. The aim of the current research was to assess the potential use of high resolution satellite imagery for monitoring durum wheat growth and development, addressing forecast grain yield and protein content, through vegetation indices at two stages of crop development. To best represent the natural variability of agricultural production, the study was conducted in wheat fields managed by local farmers. As regards dry weight, leaf area index and nitrogen (N) content, the possibility of describing the crop state is evident at stem elongation, while at anthesis this potential is completely lost. However, satellites seem to be unable to estimate the N concentration. Aboveground biomass accumulated from emergence to stem elongation is strictly related to the final yield, while it has been confirmed that the crop parameters observed at anthesis are less informative, despite approaching harvesting time.

Estimating Leaf Area Index (LAI) in Vineyards Using the PocketLAI Smart-App

Estimating leaf area index (LAI) of Vitis vinifera using indirect methods involves some critical issues, related to its discontinuous and non-homogeneous canopy. This study evaluates the smart app PocketLAI and hemispherical photography in vineyards against destructive LAI measurements. Data were collected during six surveys in an experimental site characterized by a high level of heterogeneity among plants, allowing us to explore a wide range of LAI values. During the last survey, the possibility to combine remote sensing data and in-situ PocketLAI estimates (smart scouting) was evaluated. Results showed a good agreement between PocketLAI data and direct measurements, especially for LAI ranging from 0.13 to 1.41 (R2 = 0.94, RRMSE = 17.27%), whereas the accuracy decreased when an outlying value (vineyard LAI = 2.84) was included (R2 = 0.77, RRMSE = 43.00%), due to the saturation effect in case of very dense canopies arising from lack of green pruning. The hemispherical photography showed very high values of R2, even in presence of the outlying value (R2 = 0.94), although it showed a marked and quite constant overestimation error (RRMSE = 99.46%), suggesting the need to introduce a correction factor specific for vineyards. During the smart scouting, PocketLAI showed its reliability to monitor the spatial-temporal variability of vine vigor in cordon-trained systems, and showed a potential for a wide range of applications, also in combination with remote sensing.

Quantifying the Accuracy of Digital Hemispherical Photography for Leaf Area Index Estimates on Broad-Leaved Tree Species

Digital hemispherical photography (DHP) has been widely used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) in forestry. Despite the advancement in the processing of hemispherical images with dedicated tools, several steps are still manual and thus easily affected by user’s experience and sensibility. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact of user’s subjectivity on DHP LAI estimates for broad-leaved woody canopies using the software Can-Eye. Following the ISO 5725 protocol, we quantified the repeatability and reproducibility of the method, thus defining its precision for a wide range of broad-leaved canopies markedly differing for their structure. To get a complete evaluation of the method accuracy, we also quantified its trueness using artificial canopy images with known canopy cover. Moreover, the effect of the segmentation method was analysed. The best results for precision (restrained limits of repeatability and reproducibility) were obtained for high LAI values (>5) with limits corresponding to a variation of 22% in the estimated LAI values. Poorer results were obtained for medium and low LAI values, with a variation of the estimated LAI values that exceeded the 40%. Regardless of the LAI range explored, satisfactory results were achieved for trees in row-structured plantations (limits almost equal to the 30% of the estimated LAI). Satisfactory results were achieved for trueness, regardless of the canopy structure. The paired t-test revealed that the effect of the segmentation method on LAI estimates was significant. Despite a non-negligible user effect, the accuracy metrics for DHP are consistent with those determined for other indirect methods for LAI estimates, confirming the overall reliability of DHP in broad-leaved woody canopies.

Modelling durum wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) grain protein concentration

F. ORLANDO, M. MANCINI, R. MOTHA, J.J. QU, S. ORLANDINI AND A. DALLA MARTA* Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Production, Landscape, Agroenergy – CASSANDRA Lab., University of Milan, Via Celoria 2-20133 Milan, Italy 2 Foundation for Climate and Sustainability, Via Caproni 8-50145 Florence, Italy Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18-50144 Florence, Italy Global Environment and Natural Resources Institute (GENRI), George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA