A. Javier Hamann

Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues-particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed.

Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was one of the most dramatic economic events of recent times, which raised many questions regarding the appropriate policy response to financial crises. This paper reviews the experience of this crisis, focusing on the overall strategy of crisis management and the way that strategy was implemented, including with regard to official and private financing, structural reforms, and monetary and fiscal policies.

How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?

This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues - particularly in highly aid-dependent countries - and mildly pro-cyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and pro-cyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.

IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand

This paper is a preliminary review of the design of and early experience with IMF-supported programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand during 1997-98. The review takes into account developments as of October 1998, and was the basis for a discussion of the programs by the IMFs Executive Board in December 1998.

Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization; A Critical Look at the Stylized Facts

To address this question, this paper identifies stabilization episodes using criteria that differ from those in previous empirical studies of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. We find that, while some differences can be detected between exchange-rate-based stabilizations and stabilizations where the exchange rate is not the anchor, the behavior of important variables does not appear to differ - especially output growth, which is good in both cases. There is also no evidence that fiscal discipline is enhanced by adopting an exchange rate anchor, or that there are any systematic differences in the success records of stabilizations that use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor and those that do not. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Monetary and Exchange Rate Dynamics During Disinflation: An Empirical Analysis

Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation stabilization episodes into two categories: de facto exchange rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) and non-ERBS. Unlike the standard de jure ERBS studied in the literature, de facto ERBS encompass cases in which the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market but does not preannounce the use of an exchange rate anchor. The number of the de facto ERBS is twice as large as that of de jure ERBS. Output dynamics during disinflation do not differ significantly between these two groups. We conclude that empirical studies on the effects of exchange rate anchors must seek to disentangle the effects of their announcement from those related to their role in the remonetization process.