Timothy D. Lane

Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS

Aggregate demand for M1 in the countries participating in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System is shown to be a stable function of ERM-wide income, inflation, interest rates, and the ECU-dollar exchange rate. Particularly noteworthy is the rapid dynamic adjustment, in contrast to the implausibly slow adjustment implied by most single-country estimates. These results, if robust, suggest that, even at the present stage of economic and monetary integration, a European central bank might be able to implement monetary control more effectively than the individual national central banks.

Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard

The view that the IMF`s financial support gives rise to moral hazard has become increasingly prominent in policy discussions, particularly following the 1995 Mexican crisis. This paper seeks to clarify a number of conceptual issues and bring some basic empirical evidence to bear on this hypothesis. While some element of moral hazard is a logical consequence of the IMF`s financial support, such moral hazard is difficult to detect in market reactions to various IMF policy announcements and there is no evidence that such moral hazard has recently been on the rise.

Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia

The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 was one of the most dramatic economic events of recent times, which raised many questions regarding the appropriate policy response to financial crises. This paper reviews the experience of this crisis, focusing on the overall strategy of crisis management and the way that strategy was implemented, including with regard to official and private financing, structural reforms, and monetary and fiscal policies.

Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Master or Servant?

This paper discusses the forces driving capital flows in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It argues that various influences – specifically, the real exchange rate history and trend and the factor intensity of production – can combine to motivate very large capital inflows. These inflows can either undermine attempts at monetary restraint or force excessive appreciations. They can also render the economy highly vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment. The policy implications of the analysis are awkward: exposure to global capital markets sets up difficult dilemmas for policy and leads to vulnerabilities that can be reduced but not eliminated.

Aid and Fiscal Management

This paper focuses on the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal management in aid-receiving countries. Despite the declining share of aid in budgets of donor countries, aid continues to play an important role in many developing countries. The paper first discusses the implications of aid in the economy as a whole and highlights the possibility of Dutch-disease effects of aid. Second, it discusses the implications of aid for short-term fiscal policy management - in particular, how actual or anticipated changes in aid receipts should be reflected in government spending.

IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand

This paper is a preliminary review of the design of and early experience with IMF-supported programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand during 1997-98. The review takes into account developments as of October 1998, and was the basis for a discussion of the programs by the IMFs Executive Board in December 1998.

Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows

The growing integration of capital markets has strengthened incentives for greater international coordination of economic and financial policies. Structural changes in these financial market, however, may have undermined the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy and complicated market access by developing countries. These are among the findings of this study of capital flows in the 1970s and the 1980s.

Lessons from the Crisis in Argentina

In 2001- 02, Argentina experienced one of the worst economic crises in its history. A default on government debt, which occurred against the backdrop of a prolonged recession, sent the Argentine currency and economy into a tailspin. Although the economy has since recovered from the worst, the crisis has imposed hardships on the people of Argentina, and the road back to sustained growth and stability is long. The crisis was all the more troubling in light of the fact that Argentina was widely considered a model reformer and was engaged in a succession of IMF-supported programs through much of the 1990s. This Occasional Paper examines the origins of the crisis and its evolution up to early 2002 and draws general policy lessons, both for countries’ efforts to prevent crises and for the IMF’s surveillance and use of its financial resources.

Inflation Stabilization and Economic Transformation in Poland: The First Year

This paper reviews the experience of 1990, the first year of Poland`s program of stabilization and reform. The background is described, including previous reform efforts and the crisis of the late 1980s. Then the various elements of the program are discussed, including fiscal adjustment, wage controls, the possibility of an initial liquidity overhang, the exchange rate anchor, and structural reforms. The initial results of the program are assessed, and alternative explanations of the decline in output are considered.

Real and financial economic dynamics in Russia and Eastern Europe

A. Capital Flows to Transition Economies: Reasons, Risks, and Policy Responses.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Capital Flows and their Motivation.- 2.1 Real Appreciations and Interest Rate Differentials.- 2.2 Capital Scarcity.- 2.3 What Limits Capital Flows to Transition Economies?.- 2.4 Risks Associated with Capital Inflows.- 3 Policy Responses to Capital Inflows.- 3.1 Exchange Rate Regime.- 3.2 Fiscal Policy.- 3.3 Structural Reforms.- 3.4 Capital Controls.- 3.5 Transparency.- 4 Conclusion.- Appendix: Figures and Tables.- References.- B. Long Term Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Russia.- 1 Point of Reference.- 2 Strategy for Russia.- 3 Economic Growth and the Investment Climate.- 4 Efficiency, Competition, Institutions.- 5 Macroeconomics.- 6 Domestic Demand and Demographics.- 7 The Widening Technological Gap is a Threat to Russias Future.- References.- C. Innovation, Growth and Wage Structure in Transforming Economies.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Innovation and Growth: Where do the Transition Countries Stand?.- 3 Learning by Exports: A Feasible Perspective?.- 4 Learning from Asian NICs.- 5 Structural Change and Wage Structure in a Period of Economic Opening up and Growth.- 6 Conclusions.- References.- D. Financial Sector and Human Capital in a Long-Term Growth Perspective: The Case of Russia.- 1 Introduction.- 2 The Importance of Financial Markets and Human Capital from Growth Theory Perspectives and Empirical Evidence.- 2.1 Financial Sector and Growth.- 2.2 Human Capital and Growth.- 3 Conclusion and Policy Options.- References.- E. Structure and Growth of Private Consumption in Russia and East Germany.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Statistical Definitions of Private Consumption.- 3 General Factors Influencing Private Consumption.- 4 Structure and Growth of Private Consumption in East Germany.- 5 Final Consumption in Russia.- 6 Conclusions.- References.- F. Labor Market Transformation and Hidden Unemployment in Russia.- 1 Introduction.- 2 The Main Features of the Labor Market.- 3 Employment/ Unemployment Statistics in Russia.- 4 Hidden Unemployment.- 5 Enterprise Behavior and Employment Policy.- 6 The Case of St. Petersburg.- 7 Concluding Remarks.- References.- G. Principles of Market-Oriented Labor Market Policies.- 1 Introduction.- 2 The Case for Active Manpower Policy.- 3 Active Labor Market Policy in the United States.- 4 Evaluation of U.S. Employment and Training Programs.- 5 Interpretation of the U.S. Evidence.- 6 European Evidence.- 7 Concluding Remarks.- References.- H. Rent-Seeking and Rent-Setting: Government Versus Competition (The Case of St. Petersburg).- 1 Introduction.- 2 Industrial Policy and Rent-Seeking.- 3 Rent-Seeking Through Social Merit.- 4 The Vesting of Monopoly Power.- 5 Licensing as Rent-Seeking.- 6 Protectionism.- 7 Conclusion.- References.- I. Powerful Groups and Corruption.- 1 Introduction.- 2 The Power Index Model.- 3 Conclusion.- References.- J. Regional Dimension of the Market Transformation in Russia.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Nonmarket Characteristics of the Russian Economic Space.- 3 Political and Economic Factors of Decentralization.- 4 Characteristics of the Economic Policy Pursued by Subjects of the Russian Federation.- 5 Some Results of Decentralization.- 6 A Change in the Federal Centers Position and Imperatives of the Regional Policy.- 7 Political Imperatives of Harmonizing Economic Relations between the Center and Regions.- K. Foreign Trade Policies in Transformational Russian and Ukrainian Economies.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Global Capital Movements and Capital Flows.- 3 Foreign Trade Policies in Russia and Ukraine in Transition.- 4 Foreign Trade Policy Instruments.- References.- L. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Transformation.- 1 Theoretical Background.- 2 Statistical Background.- 3 Determinants of FDI and Projections for Selected CIS and other Eastern European Countries.- 3.1. Determinants of FDI.- 3.2. Projections for Investigated CIS Countries and Eastern European Countries.- 4 FDI, Capital Formation, and Structural Change.- 4.1. The Size of Gross Fixed Capital Formation.- 4.2. The Contribution of FDI to Capital Formation.- 4.3. Sectoral Aspects.- 5 Conclusions.- References.- M. Data Appendix.- List of Figures.- List of Tables.- List of Contributors.- Biographies.