A. Maarouf

A role of high impact weather events in waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada, 1975 – 2001

Abstract Recent outbreaks of Escherichia coli O157:H7, Campylobacter, and Cryptosporidium have heightened awareness of risks associated with contaminated water supply. The objectives of this research were to describe the incidence and distribution of waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada in relation to preceding weather conditions and to test the association between high impact weather events and waterborne disease outbreaks. We examined extreme rainfall and spring snowmelt in association with 92 Canadian waterborne disease outbreaks between 1975 and 2001, using case-crossover methodology. Explanatory variables including accumulated rainfall, air temperature, and peak stream flow were used to determine the relationship between high impact weather events and the occurrence of waterborne disease outbreaks. Total maximum degree-days above 0°C and accumulated rainfall percentile were associated with outbreak risk. For each degree-day above 0°C the relative odds of an outbreak increased by a factor of 1.007 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.002 – 1.012). Accumulated rainfall percentile was dichotomized at the 93rd percentile. For rainfall events greater than the 93rd percentile the relative odds of an outbreak increased by a factor of 2.283 (95% [CI] = 1.216 – 4.285). These results suggest that warmer temperatures and extreme rainfall are contributing factors to waterborne disease outbreaks in Canada. This could have implications for water management and public health initiatives.

VULNERABILITY OF WATERBORNE DISEASES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN CANADA: A REVIEW

This project addresses two important issues relevant to the health of Canadians: the risk of waterborne illness and the health impacts of global climate change. The Canadian health burden from waterborne illness is unknown, although it presumably accounts for a significant proportion of enteric illness. Recently, large outbreaks with severe consequences produced by E. coli O157:H7 and Cryptosporidium have alarmed Canadians and brought demands for political action. A concurrent need to understand the health impacts of global climate changes and to develop strategies to prevent or prepare for these has also been recognized. There is mounting evidence that weather is often a factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. A recent study of precipitation and waterborne illness in the United States found that more than half the waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States during the last half century followed a period of extreme rainfall. Projections of international global climate change scenarios suggest that, under conditions of global warming most of Canada may expect longer summers, milder winters, increased summer drought, and more extreme precipitation. Excess precipitation, floods, high temperatures, and drought could affect the risk of waterborne illness in Canada. The existing scientific information regarding most weather-related adverse health impacts and on the impacts of global climate change on health in Canada is insufficient for informed decision making. The results of this project address this need through the investigation of the complex systemic interrelationships between disease incidence, weather parameters, and water quality and quantity, and by projecting the potential impact of global climate change on those relationships.

Investigation of relationships between temperature and developmental rates of tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory and field.

Abstract Relationships between temperature and preoviposition, preeclosion, and premolt developmental periods for the tick Ixodes scapularis Say were investigated by holding field-collected ticks in the laboratory at temperatures of 0 to 32°C at constant daylength. The duration of these developmental periods decreased significantly with increasing temperature. Host of origin, prior storage at 4°C, and season of collection of the ticks were also significantly associated with variations in the duration of the preoviposition period. For each developmental stage, the effect of temperature on development rate was best described as a power relationship. Laboratory-derived relationships were used to predict dates for molting, oviposition, and eclosion of engorged larvae and nymphs, engorged adult females and egg masses, respectively, placed in the field during 1989–1992. Predicted dates for oviposition by adult females, eclosion of eggs, and molting of engorged larvae were within 2 wk of the observed dates, and field-observed seasonal activity of questing larvae and nymphs also was predicted well by laboratory data. Molting of engorged nymphs and seasonal activity of questing adult ticks were, however, poorly predicted. Our findings suggest that duration of development in the field, of larvae from engorged adult females, and of nymphs from engorged larvae, may be explained largely by temperature effects alone, whereas emergence of adult I. scapularis from engorged nymphs may depend on temperature-independent diapause phenomena. The significance of these findings for understanding current and future distributions of I. scapularis, and of the pathogens it transmits, is discussed.

Projected effects of climate change on tick phenology and fitness of pathogens transmitted by the North American tick Ixodes scapularis.

Ixodes scapularis is the principal tick vector of the Lyme borreliosis agent Borrelia burgdorferi and other tick-borne zoonoses in northeastern North America. The degree of seasonal synchrony of nymphal and larval ticks may be important in influencing the basic reproductive number of the pathogens transmitted by I. scapularis. Because the seasonal phenology of tick vectors is partly controlled by ambient temperature, climate and climate change could shape the population biology of tick-borne pathogens. We used projected monthly normal temperatures, obtained from the second version of the Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) under emissions scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for a site in southern Ontario, Canada, to simulate the phenology of I. scapularis in a mathematical model. The simulated seasonal abundance of ticks then determined transmission of three candidate pathogens amongst a population of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. Fitness of the different pathogens, in terms of resilience to changes in tick and rodent mortality, minima for infection duration, transmission efficiency and particularly any additional mortality of rodents specifically associated with infection, varied according to the seasonal pattern of immature tick activity, which was different under the temperature conditions projected for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In each case, pathogens that were long-lived, highly transmissible and had little impact on rodent mortality rates were the fittest. However, under the seasonal tick activity patterns projected for the 2020s and 2050s, the fitness of pathogens that are shorter-lived, less efficiently transmitted, and more pathogenic to their natural hosts, increased. Therefore, climate change may affect the frequency and distribution of I. scapularis-borne pathogens and alter their evolutionary trajectories.

Investigation of Ground Level and Remote-Sensed Data for Habitat Classification and Prediction of Survival of Ixodes scapularis in Habitats of Southeastern Canada

Abstract In southeastern Canada, most populations of Ixodes scapularis Say, the Lyme disease vector, occur in Carolinian forests. Climate change projections suggest a northward range expansion of I. scapularis this century, but it is unclear whether more northerly habitats are suitable for I. scapularis survival. In this study, we assessed the suitability of woodlands of the Lower Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Plain region for I. scapularis by comparing tick egg survival in four different woodlands. Woodlands where I. scapularis are established, and sand dune where I. scapularis do not survive, served as positive and negative control sites, respectively. At two woodland sites, egg survival was the same as at the positive control site, but at two of the sites survival was significantly less than either the positive control site, or one of the other test sites. Egg survival in all woodland sites was significantly higher than in the sand dune site. Ground level habitat classification discriminated among woodlands in which tick survival differed. The likelihood that I. scapularis populations could persist in the different habitats, as deduced using a population model of I. scapularis, was significantly associated with variations in Landsat 7 ETM+ data (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and Tasselled Cap indices). The NDVI index predicted habitat suitability at Long Point, Ontario, with high sensitivity but moderate specificity. Our study suggests that I. scapularis populations could establish in more northerly woodland types than those in which they currently exist. Suitable habitats may be detected by ground-level habitat classification, and remote-sensed data may assist this process.