A. Rumley

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 as an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study Group.

BACKGROUND Chronic inflammation is believed to increase the risk of coronary events by making atherosclerotic plaques in coronary vessels prone to rupture. We examined blood constituents potentially affected by inflammation as predictors of risk in men with hypercholesterolemia who were enrolled in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study, a trial that evaluated the value of pravastatin in the prevention of coronary events. METHODS A total of 580 men who had had a coronary event (nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, or a revascularization procedure) were each matched for age and smoking status with 2 control subjects (total, 1160) from the same cohort who had not had a coronary event. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen levels, and the white-cell count were measured at base line, along with other traditional risk factors. The association of these variables with the risk of coronary events was tested in regression models and by dividing the range of values according to quintiles. RESULTS Levels of C-reactive protein, the white-cell count, and fibrinogen levels were strong predictors of the risk of coronary events; the risk in the highest quintile of the study cohort for each variable was approximately twice that in the lowest quintile. However, the association of these variables with risk was markedly attenuated when age, systolic blood pressure, and lipoprotein levels were included in multivariate models. Levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (platelet-activating factor acetylhydrolase), the expression of which is regulated by mediators of inflammation, had a strong, positive association with risk that was not confounded by other factors. It was associated with almost a doubling of the risk in the highest quintile as compared with the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS Inflammatory markers are predictors of the risk of coronary events, but their predictive ability is attenuated by associations with other coronary risk factors. Elevated levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 appear to be a strong risk factor for coronary heart disease, a finding that has implications for atherogenesis and the assessment of risk.

Adrenocortical, Autonomic, and Inflammatory Causes of the Metabolic Syndrome Nested Case-Control Study

Background—The causes of metabolic syndrome (MS), which may be a precursor of coronary disease, are uncertain. We hypothesize that disturbances in neuroendocrine and cardiac autonomic activity (CAA) contribute to development of MS. We examine reversibility and the power of psychosocial and behavioral factors to explain the neuroendocrine adaptations that accompany MS. Methods and Results—This was a double-blind case-control study of working men aged 45 to 63 years drawn from the Whitehall II cohort. MS cases (n=30) were compared with healthy controls (n=153). Cortisol secretion, sensitivity, and 24-hour cortisol metabolite and catecholamine output were measured over 2 days. CAA was obtained from power spectral analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) recordings. Twenty-four-hour cortisol metabolite and normetanephrine (3-methoxynorepinephrine) outputs were higher among cases than controls (+ 0.49, +0.45 SD, respectively). HRV and total power were lower among cases (both −0.72 SD). Serum interleukin-6, plasma C-reactive protein, and viscosity were higher among cases (+0.89, +0.51, and +0.72 SD). Lower HRV was associated with higher normetanephrine output (r =−0.19;P =0.03). Among former cases (MS 5 years previously, n=23), cortisol output, heart rate, and interleukin-6 were at the level of controls. Psychosocial factors accounted for 37% of the link between MS and normetanephrine output, and 7% to 19% for CAA. Health-related behaviors accounted for 5% to 18% of neuroendocrine differences. Conclusions—Neuroendocrine stress axes are activated in MS. There is relative cardiac sympathetic predominance. The neuroendocrine changes may be reversible. This case-control study provides the first evidence that chronic stress may be a cause of MS. Confirmatory prospective studies are required.

Blood viscosity and risk of cardiovascular events: the Edinburgh Artery Study.

We examined the relationships of whole blood viscosity and its major determinants to incident cardiovascular events (ischaemic heart disease and stroke) in a prospective study of a random population sample of 1592 men and women aged 55–74 years (the Edinburgh Artery Study). 272 fatal and non‐fatal cardiovascular events occurred during 5 years of follow‐up (cumulative incidence 17.1%). Age and sex adjusted mean levels of blood viscosity (3.70 v 3.55 mPa.s), haematocrit (46.2 v 45.7%), haematocrit‐corrected blood viscosity (3.57 v 3.48 mPa.s), plasma viscosity (1.35 v 1.33 mPa.s) and fibrinogen (2.88 v 2.67 g/l) were significantly higher in subjects who experienced events than in subjects who did not. The relationships of these rheological variables to cardiovascular events were at least as strong as those of conventional risk factors (smoking habit, diastolic blood pressure, and low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol). After adjustment for these conventional risk factors, the associations of blood viscosity and haematocrit remained significant for stroke, but not for total events; whereas the associations of plasma viscosity and fibrinogen remained significant for total events and for stroke.

Human CRP gene polymorphism influences CRP levels: implications for the prediction and pathogenesis of coronary heart disease.

Objective—C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations are predictive of cardiovascular disease, and levels are heritable, in part. We identified novel polymorphisms in the CRP gene and assessed their influence on CRP level. Methods and Results—CRP was measured in 250 male army recruits before and after strenuous exercise and perioperatively in 193 coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients. Two novel polymorphisms were identified in the CRP gene, −717G>A in the promoter and +1444C>T in the 3′UTR. Among army recruits, CRP was higher in +1444TT homozygotes than +1444 C-allele carriers at baseline (1.04±0.38 versus 0.55±0.06, P =0.014) and at all time points after exercise (2.35±0.68 versus 1.07±0.12, 2.11±0.53 versus 0.88±0.09, and 1.77±0.44 versus 0.71±0.09, P =0.034, P =0.007, and P =0.013, at 2, 48, and 96 hours after exercise, respectively). In the CABG patients, mean CRP (mg/L) rose from 1.97±0.36 at baseline to 167.2±5.0 72 hours postoperatively. Genotype did not influence CRP at baseline; however, peak post-CABG CRP levels were higher in +1444TT homozygotes compared with +1444C-allele carriers (198±17 versus 164±5, P =0.03). Conclusions—The CRP gene +1444C>T variant influences basal and stimulated CRP level. These findings have implications both for the prediction and pathogenesis of coronary heart disease.

Associations of C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 with cognitive symptoms of depression: 12-year follow-up of the Whitehall II study.

BACKGROUND A lack of longitudinal studies has made it difficult to establish the direction of associations between circulating concentrations of low-grade chronic inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein and interleukin-6, and cognitive symptoms of depression. The present study sought to assess whether C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 predict cognitive symptoms of depression or whether these symptoms predict inflammatory markers. METHOD In a prospective occupational cohort study of British white-collar civil servants (the Whitehall II study), serum C-reactive protein, interleukin-6 and cognitive symptoms of depression were measured at baseline in 1991-1993 and at follow-up in 2002-2004, an average follow-up of 11.8 years. Symptoms of depression were measured with four items describing cognitive symptoms of depression from the General Health Questionnaire. The number of participants varied between 3339 and 3070 (mean age 50 years, 30% women) depending on the analysis. RESULTS Baseline C-reactive protein (beta=0.046, p=0.004) and interleukin-6 (beta=0.046, p=0.005) predicted cognitive symptoms of depression at follow-up, while baseline symptoms of depression did not predict inflammatory markers at follow-up. After full adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioural and biological risk factors, health conditions, medication use and baseline cognitive systems of depression, baseline C-reactive protein (beta=0.038, p=0.036) and interleukin-6 (beta=0.041, p=0.018) remained predictive of cognitive symptoms of depression at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that inflammation precedes depression at least with regard to the cognitive symptoms of depression.

Increased markers of thrombogenesis in chronic atrial fibrillation: effects of warfarin treatment.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether chronic atrial fibrillation is associated with abnormalities in plasma fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor (vWF) (a marker of endothelial disturbance), or fibrin D- dimer (a measure of fibrin turnover); and if so, whether such levels are related to haemodynamic disturbance (enlarged left atrium, poor left ventricular function) or existing treatment with warfarin or aspirin. To investigate the effects of introducing warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation on fibrinogen and D- dimer levels. DESIGN--Cross sectional population sample controlled study and longitudinal study of patients undergoing anticoagulation. SETTING--District general hospital. SUBJECTS--87 patients (44 men and 43 women of mean (SEM) age 63.0 (1.0)) with chronic atrial fibrillation. At the time of the study, 37 were taking no antithrombotic medication (group 1), 31 were taking warfarin (including two on warfarin and aspirin) (group 2) and 19 were taking aspirin alone (group 3). They were compared with 158 population controls from a random population sample (the second Glasgow monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease study). As part of clinical treatment warfarin was introduced in 20 patients with chronic atrial fibrillation (14 men and six women of mean (SEM) (range) age 63.9 (2.35 (32-74) years). RESULTS--Plasma fibrinogen remained significantly increased in patients of group 1 (no antithrombotic medication) compared with that of the population controls (median difference 1.23 g/l; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.62, P < 0.0001). There was also a significant increase in plasma D-dimer levels (median difference 77 ng/ml; 95% CI 38 to 122, P < 0.01) and vWF (median difference 63 IU/dl; 95% CI 38 to 89, P < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in plasma fibrinogen (median difference 0.14 g/l; 95% CI -0.44 to 0.77, P = 0.65) or vWF (median difference 3.5 IU/dl; 95% CI - 41 to 41, P = not significant in patients of group 2 (warfarin treatment) compared with that of patients in group 1. Levels of D-dimer were significantly lower in group 2 (median difference 90 ng/ml, 95% CI 39 to 150, P < 0.0001) than in group 1. There were no significant differences in plasma fibrinogen (median difference 0.08 g/l; 95% CI - 0.52 to 0.77, P = 0.73), D-dimer (median difference - 34 ng/ml; 95% CI - 114 to 21.0, P = 0.25), or vWF (median difference 2%; 95% CI - 35 to 41, P = not significant) levels between patients of groups 1 and 3. There were no significant correlations between the coagulation indices and left atrial volume or ventricular function. There was a significant positive correlation between plasma fibrin D-dimer and vWF levels in patients of groups 1 and 3 (r = 0.52, P < 0.001). There was a significant reduction in median plasma fibrin D-dimer levels at 2 months after the introduction of warfarin (181 ng/ml v 80 ng/ml, P < 0.001), but no effect on plasma fibrinogen. CONCLUSIONS--Increased median plasma fibrinogen and vWF levels were found in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation. Plasma D-dimer levels were also increased in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation not receiving warfarin, suggesting increased intravascular thrombogenesis in such patients. Introduction of warfarin normalised circulating fibrin D- dimer levels, suggesting that warfarin treatment was effective in preventing excessive fibrin turnover, consistent with the antithrombotic effects of warfarin. These results suggest three possible thrombotic markers to assess patients with atrial fibrillation who are at high risk of thrombogenesis; D-dimer also merits assessment as a measure of reduction in thrombotic risk in patients receiving warfarin.

EPIDEMIOLOGY OF COAGULATION FACTORS, INHIBITORS AND ACTIVATION MARKERS: THE THIRD GLASGOW MONICA SURVEY I. ILLUSTRATIVE REFERENCE RANGES BY AGE, SEX AND HORMONE USE

Coagulation factor activity (fibrinogen, VII, VIII and IX), coagulation inhibitor activity (antithrombin, protein C, protein S), and coagulation activation markers (prothrombin fragment F1,  2; thrombin–antithrombin complexes) were measured in 747 men and 817 women aged 25–74 years, randomly sampled from the north Glasgow population in the Third MONICA Survey. Significant effects of age, sex, menopause and hormone use were observed and specific reference ranges are presented to illustrate these effects. Significant correlations were observed between several coagulation factors and inhibitors. Increased levels of factors VII, VIII and IX and decreased levels of protein C were associated with increased coagulation activation. In general, increases in coagulation factors with age were greater than increases in coagulation inhibitors, especially in men; this imbalance may favour increased coagulation activation and hence increased thrombotic risk with age.

Critical appraisal of CRP measurement for the prediction of coronary heart disease events: new data and systematic review of 31 prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND Non-uniform reporting of relevant relationships and metrics hampers critical appraisal of the clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) measurement for prediction of later coronary events. METHODS We evaluated the predictive performance of CRP in the Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS-II) and the Edinburgh Artery Study (EAS) comparing discrimination by area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration and reclassification. We set the findings in the context of a systematic review of published studies comparing different available and imputed measures of prediction. Risk estimates per-quantile of CRP were pooled using a random effects model to infer the shape of the CRP-coronary event relationship. RESULTS NPHS-II and EAS (3441 individuals, 309 coronary events): CRP alone provided modest discrimination for coronary heart disease (AUC 0.61 and 0.62 in NPHS-II and EAS, respectively) and only modest improvement in the discrimination of a Framingham-based risk score (FRS) (increment in AUC 0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Risk models based on FRS alone and FRS + CRP were both well calibrated and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 8.5% in NPHS-II and 8.8% in EAS with four risk categories, falling to 4.9% and 3.0% for 10-year coronary disease risk threshold of 15%. Systematic review (31 prospective studies 84 063 individuals, 11 252 coronary events): pooled inferred values for the AUC for CRP alone were 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), 0.59 (0.57, 0.61) and 0.57 (0.54, 0.61) for studies of <5, 5-10 and >10 years follow up, respectively. Evidence from 13 studies (7201 cases) indicated that CRP did not consistently improve performance of the Framingham risk score when assessed by discrimination, with AUC increments in the range 0-0.15. Evidence from six studies (2430 cases) showed that CRP provided statistically significant but quantitatively small improvement in calibration of models based on established risk factors in some but not all studies. The wide overlap of CRP values among people who later suffered events and those who did not appeared to be explained by the consistently log-normal distribution of CRP and a graded continuous increment in coronary risk across the whole range of values without a threshold, such that a large proportion of events occurred among the many individuals with near average levels of CRP. CONCLUSIONS CRP does not perform better than the Framingham risk equation for discrimination. The improvement in risk stratification or reclassification from addition of CRP to models based on established risk factors is small and inconsistent. Guidance on the clinical use of CRP measurement in the prediction of coronary events may require updating in light of this large comparative analysis.

Factor VIII, von Willebrand factor and the risk of major ischaemic heart disease in the Caerphilly Heart Study.

The relationships of three measurements of the factor VIII/von Willebrand factor (VWF) complex (factor VIII activity, FVIIIc (one‐stage assay); VWF antigen, VWF Ag (ELISA); and VWF activity, VWF act, measured by a recently‐developed ELISA) to major ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events were studied in 1997 men aged 49–65 years, in the second phase of the Caerphilly Heart Study. These variables were related using logistic regression analysis to myocardial infarction or IHD death, which occurred in 129 men during an average follow‐up period of 61 months. All three measurements were highly correlated (r = 0.63–0.77), and each was significantly associated with incident major IHD on univariate analyses (relative odds in highest fifth compared to lowest fifth, 1.68–1.90; P = 0.028–0.006) and on multivariate analyses adjusting for major IHD risk factors and for baseline IHD. Neither FVIIIc nor VWF act was significantly related to incident IHD following adjustment for VWF Ag. We therefore suggest that the associations between these three measurements of the factor VIII/VWF complex and incident IHD might have at least three explanations: VWF Ag is a marker of arterial endothelial disturbance; VWF act promotes platelet adhesion/aggregation and hence the platelet component of arterial thrombosis; and FVIIIc promotes fibrin formation and hence the fibrin component of arterial thrombosis.

Hormonal replacement therapy, prothrombotic mutations and the risk of venous thrombosis

Summary. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) increases the risk of venous thrombosis. We investigated whether this risk is affected by carriership of hereditary prothrombotic abnormalities. Therefore, we determined the two most common prothrombotic mutations, factor V Leiden and prothrombin 20210A in women who participated in a case–control study on venous thrombosis. Relative risks were expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI95). Among 77 women aged 45–64 years with a first venous thrombosis, 51% were receiving HRT at the time of thrombosis, compared with 24% of control women (OR = 3·3, CI95 1·8–5·8). Among the patients, 23% had a prothrombotic defect, versus 7% among the control women (OR = 3·8, CI95 1·7–8·5). Women who had factor V Leiden and used HRT had a 15‐fold increased risk (OR = 15·5, CI95 3·1–77), which exceeded the expected joint odds ratio of 6·1 (under an additive model). We conclude that the thrombotic risk of HRT may particularly affect women with prothrombotic mutations. Efforts to avoid HRT in women with increased risk of thrombosis are advisable.