A. Stojić

Single and combined effects of air pollutants on circulatory and respiratory system-related mortality in Belgrade, Serbia

ABSTRACT The aim of this study was to investigate the association between short- and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and soot and mortality attributed to circulatory and respiratory diseases in Belgrade area (Serbia). The analyzed data set comprised results of regular pollutant monitoring and corresponding administrative records on frequency of daily mortality in the period 2009–2014. Nonlinear exposure–response dependencies and delayed effects of temperature were examined by means of distributed lag nonlinear models. The air pollutant loadings and circulatory system-related death rates in Belgrade area are among the highest in Europe. Data demonstrated that excess risk of death with short-term exposure to elevated concentrations of PM10, SO2, and soot was not significant, whereas marked effect size estimates for exposure over 90 d preceding mortality were found. The influence of chronic exposure was shown to be greater for respiratory than circulatory system-related mortality. When stratified by age and gender, higher risk was noted for male individuals below the age of 65 years.

Source apportionment of atmospheric bulk deposition in the Belgrade urban area using Positive Matrix factorization

The primary objective of the present study was to assess anthropogenic impacts of heavy metals to the environment by determination of total atmospheric deposition of heavy metals. Atmospheric depositions (wet + dry) were collected monthly, from June 2002 to December 2006, at three urban locations in Belgrade, using bulk deposition samplers. Concentrations of Fe, Al, Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, Mn, Cr, V, As and Cd were analyzed using atomic absorption spectrometry. Based upon these results, the study attempted to examine elemental associations in atmospheric deposition and to elucidate the potential sources of heavy metal contaminants in the region by the use of multivariate receptor model Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF).

Forecasting of VOC emissions from traffic and industry using classification and regression multivariate methods.

In this study, advanced multivariate methods were applied for VOC source apportionment and subsequent short-term forecast of industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related contributions in Belgrade urban area (Serbia). The VOC concentrations were measured using PTR-MS, together with inorganic gaseous pollutants (NOx, NO, NO2, SO2, and CO), PM10, and meteorological parameters. US EPA Positive Matrix Factorization and Unmix receptor models were applied to the obtained dataset both resolving six source profiles. For the purpose of forecasting industrial- and vehicle exhaust-related source contributions, different multivariate methods were employed in two separate cases, relying on meteorological data, and on meteorological data and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants, respectively. The results indicate that Boosted Decision Trees and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were the best performing methods. According to the results, forecasting accuracy was high (lowest relative error of only 6%), in particular when the forecast was based on both meteorological parameters and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants.

Comprehensive analysis of PM10 in Belgrade urban area on the basis of long-term measurements

In this study, we investigated the impact of potential emission sources and transport pathways on annual and seasonal PM10 loadings in an urban area of Belgrade (Serbia). The analyzed dataset comprised PM10 mass concentrations for the period 2003–2015, as well as their chemical composition (organic/elemental carbon, benzo[a]pyrene, As, Cd, Cr, Mn, Ni, Pb, Cl−, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, K+, NO3−, SO42−, and NH4+), meteorological parameters, and concentrations of inorganic gaseous pollutants and soot for the period 2011–2015. The combination of different methods, such as source apportionment (Unmix), ensemble learning method (random forest), and multifractal and inverse multifractal analysis, was utilized in order to obtain a detailed description of the PM10 origin and spatio-temporal distribution and to determine their relationship with other pollutants and meteorological parameters. The contribution of long-range and regional transport was estimated by means of trajectory sector analysis, whereas the hybrid receptor models were applied to identify potential areas of concern.

Quantification and mechanisms of BTEX distribution between aqueous and gaseous phase in a dynamic system.

In this study an analytical system was developed for determination of quantitative characteristics of BTEX distribution between gaseous and aqueous phase. Dynamic dilution system was coupled with Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS) to provide conditions for partitioning between the two phases resembling the interactions during rainfall. The amount of the target species retained in water were significantly higher than suggested by theoretical predictions indicating that dissolution is not the major mechanism of gaseous BTEX uptake in aqueous phase. Distribution coefficients and enrichment factors were calculated, and the possible mechanisms of partitioning were considered. As concluded, the interfacial adsorption and van der Waals interactions play significant role, whereas hydrogen-bond interactions have no major contribution to BTEX partitioning.

Forecasting hourly particulate matter concentrations based on the advanced multivariate methods

In this study, several multivariate methods were used for forecasting hourly PM10 concentrations at four locations based on SO2 and meteorological data from the previous period. According to the results, boosted decision trees and multi-layer perceptrons yielded the best predictions. The forecasting performances were similar for all examined locations, despite the additional PM10 spatio-temporal analysis showed that the sites were affected by different emission sources, topographic and microclimatic conditions. The best prediction of PM10 concentrations was obtained for industrial sites, probably due to the simplicity and regularity of dominant pollutant emissions on a daily basis. Conversely, somewhat weaker forecast accuracy was achieved at urban canyon avenue, which can be attributed to the specific urban morphology and most diverse emission sources. In conclusion to this, the integration of advanced multivariate methods in air quality forecasting systems could enhance accuracy and provide the basis for efficient decision-making in environmental regulatory management.

Statistical Character and Transport Pathways of Atmospheric Aerosols in Belgrade

Clean air is considered to be a basic requirement for human health and well being. Various chemicals are emitted into the air from both, natural and anthropogenic sources. In spite of the introduction of cleaner technologies in industry, energy production and transport, air pollution remains a major health risk and tighter emission controls are being enforced by many governments. Atmospheric particles – aerosols – are some of the key components of the atmosphere. They influence the energy balance of the Earths surface, visibility, climate and environment as a whole [1-3]. According to World Health Organization (WHO), ozone, particulate matter (PM), heavy metals and some hydrocarbons present the priority pollutants in the troposphere [4]. Public health can also be indirectly affected by deposition of air pollutants in environmental media and uptake by plants and animals, what results in entering of chemicals into the food chain or drinking water, and thereby constituting additional sources of human exposure. A number of epidemiological studies have demonstrated that acute and chronic health effects are related to the inhalable PM10 (aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) exposure in the urban environment, and some data also seem to indicate possible seasonal effects of the particulate matter on human health [5-10]. This is especially important for urban aerosols, whose variety of size and composition make complete characterization a difficult task. Particulate matter pollution is nowadays one of the problems of the most concern in great cities, not only because of the adverse health effects, but also of the reducing atmospheric visibility and affect to the state of conservation of various cultural heritages [11]. Therefore, the measurement of the levels of atmospheric particulate matter is a key parameter in air quality monitoring throughout the world.

Characteristics and Application of Receptor Models to the Atmospheric Aerosols Research

Atmospheric aerosols can be defined as solid and liquid particles suspended in air. Due to their confirmed role in climate change (IPCC, 2001), impact on human health (Dockery and Pope, 1994; Schwartz et al., 1996; Schwartz et al., 2001; WHO, 2002, 2003; Dockery and Pope, 2006), role on the radiative budget (IPCC, 2007), effects on ecosystems (Niyogi et al., 2004; Bytnerowicz et al., 2007), and local visibility they are of major scientific interest. The human activities in various aspects cause a change in the natural air quality. This change is more marked in very inhabited areas with high industrialization. Epidemiological research over the past 15 years has revealed a consistent statistical correlation between levels of airborne particulate matter (PM) and adverse human health effects (Pope et al., 2004; Dockery and Stone, 2007). Airborne particulate matter contains a wide range of substances, such as heavy metals, organic compounds, acidic gases, etc. Chemical reactions occurring on aerosols in the atmosphere can transform hazardous components and increase or decrease their potential for adverse health effects. Especially organic compounds react readily with atmospheric oxidants, and since small particles have a high surface-to-volume ratio, their chemical composition can be efficiently changed by interaction with trace gases such as ozone and nitrogen oxides. The impact of atmospheric aerosols on the radiative balance of the Earth is of comparable magnitude to greenhouse gases effect (Anderson et al., 2003). Atmospheric aerosol in the troposphere influences climate in two ways: directly, through the reflection and absorption of solar radiation, and indirectly through the modification of the optical properties and lifetime of clouds. Estimation of the radiative forcing induced by atmospheric aerosols is much more complex and uncertain compared with the well-mixed greenhouse gases because of the complex physical and chemical processes involved with aerosols and because of their short lifetimes which make their distributions inherently more inhomogeneous. In order to protect public health and the environment i.e. to control and reduce particulate matter levels, air quality standards (AQS) were issued and target values for annual and daily mean PM10 (particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 m) and PM2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 m) mass concentrations were established. For the first stage, the EU Directive (EC, 1999) required an annual limit of 40 g m-3 and a 24h limit 7

Heavy metal accumulation in wheat and barley: The effects of soil presence and liquid manure amendment

An experiment was undertaken to evaluate the effect of liquid manure amendment on heavy metal accumulation in wheat and barley. For this purpose, both kinds of seedlings were grown simultaneously in a Petri dish, while wheat seedlings were also grown in pots containing unpolluted agricultural soil. All of the seedlings were irrigated with one of the three prepared solutions: artificial rainwater solution, heavy metal solution and liquid manure solution containing NH4NO3, H3PO4 and KOH along with equal amounts of heavy metals as in the second solution. Twenty days later, 1 g of plant tissue was digested with the mixture of HNO3 and H2O2 for ICP-OES/HG-ICP-OES analysis. The results showed that the uptake of arsenic and mercury was highest for both plants grown in a Petri dish. Furthermore, the wheat grown in a Petri dish also had a high content of nickel, cadmium and copper, while the pot-grown wheat contained high amounts of iron and manganese, probably due to the adsorption of nickel, cadmium, copper and mercury on soil phases. The lower uptake of all heavy metals was observed after the amendment of liquid manure, with the exception of manganese in wheat and mercury in all plants.

Seasonal mortality variations of cardiovascular, respiratory and malignant diseases in the City of Belgrade

The main purpose of this paper is to examine seasonal variations in mortality resulting from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and cancer, as well as to provide a review of environmental factors underlying such phenomenon. The herein presented study was conducted on the territory of Belgrade based on the data on daily mortality rates obtained from the Institute of Public Health in Belgrade for the period 2009-2014, as well as the data on annual mortality rates provided by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia for the period 2000-2014. The analysis of mortality variations was performed by the use of Theil-Sen method, smooth trend method and cubic spline interpolation, whereas desriptive tools, such as winter/summer ratio and dissimilarity index, were used to examine the seasonal pattern. According to the Institute of Public Health, over 113430 deaths were registered in Belgrade area for the period 2009-2014, out of which 53.25% is attributed to cardiovascular diseases, 4.01% to respiratory diseases and 27.50% to cancer. The annual mortality rates caused by cardiovascular diseases and cancer on the territory of Belgrade are among the highest ranking in Europe. The leading causes of death in the observed period included: cardiomyopathy, heart attack and stroke with accompanying complications, breast cancer in women, prostate and colorectal cancer in men, lung and bronchus cancer for both genders, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Cardiovascular and respiratory mortality rates are significantly higher among people aged 65 and over, whereas more than one third of deaths caused by cancer is observed among younger people aged between 45 and 64 years. Research results show that seasonal variations were most pronounced in mortality resulting from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with highest mortality rates recorded in February and March and lowest during the summer season. Also, the number of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases increased twice, namely at the end of June and October, which is assumed to be the result of sudden temperature changes. Nonetheless, no such seasonal variations were observed in mortality caused by cancer. Seasonal variations in mortality resulting from cardiovascular diseases also indicate gender differences, which is why sudden temperature changes in interim periods affect more women than men. As regards deseasonalized trend, mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases stagnates, while mortality caused by cancer and mortality caused by respiratory diseases records moderate to severe increase. This is a uniform trend in almost all municipalities in Belgrade, with average mortality rates being higher in central zones than in suburbs over the last 15 years, particularly mortality caused by cancer. A slight increase in the overall mortality can also be attributed to aging of the population, which cannot be verified due to lack of available accurate data on the average age structure of Belgrade population for the observed period. A better understanding of seasonal variations in mortality caused by chronic non-communicable diseases can contribute to improving the population health care and rising awareness of the population concerning greater health care in changeable weather conditions due to global warming and climate change. These findings can also enhance preventive action on environmental risk factors that are not limited exclusively to weather conditions, such as air pollution. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III43007 i br. III41011]