A. W. Case

Does the worsening galactic cosmic radiation environment observed by CRaTER preclude future manned deep space exploration

The Sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small solar energetic particle events. We use observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions for human space exploration. We show that while these conditions are not a show stopper for long-duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic ray radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits mission durations. While solar energetic particle events in cycle 24 present some hazard, the accumulated doses for astronauts behind 10 g/cm2 shielding are well below current dose limits. Galactic cosmic radiation presents a more significant challenge: the time to 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) in interplanetary space was less than 400 days for a 30 year old male and less than 300 days for a 30 year old female in the last cycle 23–24 minimum. The time to 3% REID is estimated to be ∼20% lower in the coming cycle 24–25 minimum. If the heliospheric magnetic field continues to weaken over time, as is likely, then allowable mission durations will decrease correspondingly. Thus, we estimate exposures in extreme solar minimum conditions and the corresponding effects on allowable durations.

Ambient solar wind's effect on ICME transit times

Most empirical and numerical models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) propagation use the initial CME velocity as their primary, if not only, observational input. These models generally predict a wide spread of 1 AU transit times for ICMEs with the same initial velocity. We use a 3D coupled MHD model of the corona and heliosphere to determine the ambient solar winds effect on the propagation of ICMEs from 30 solar radii to 1 AU. We quantitatively characterize this deceleration by the velocity of the upstream ambient solar wind. The effects of varying solar wind parameters on the ICME transit time are quantified and can explain the observed spread in transit times for ICMEs of the same initial velocity. We develop an adjustment formula that can be used in conjunction with other models to reduce the spread in predicted transit times of Earth-directed ICMEs.

Designing a sun-pointing Faraday cup for solar probe plus

The NASA Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission will be the first spacecraft to pass through the sub-Alfvenic solar corona. The objectives of the mission are to trace the flow of energy that heats and accelerates the solar corona and solar wind, to determine the structure and dynamics of the plasma and magnetic fields at the sources of the solar wind, and to explore mechanisms that accelerate and transport energetic particles. The Solar Wind Electrons, Alphas, and Protons (SWEAP) Investigation instrument suite on SPP will measure the bulk solar wind conditions in the inner heliosphere. SWEAP consists of the Solar Probe Cup (SPC), a sun-pointing Faraday Cup, and the Solar Probe ANalyzers (SPAN), a set of 3 electrostatic analyzers that will reside in the penumbra of SPPs thermal protection system and measure solar wind ions and electrons. SPP is scheduled to launch in 2018 into an equatorial solar orbit where a sequence of Venus gravity assists will gradually lower its closest solar approach to within 9.5 solar ra...

Radiation modeling in the Earth and Mars atmospheres using LRO/CRaTER with the EMMREM Module

We expand upon the efforts of Joyce et al. (2013), who computed the modulation potential at the Moon using measurements from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft along with data products from the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM). Using the computed modulation potential, we calculate galactic cosmic ray (GCR) dose and dose equivalent rates in the Earth and Mars atmospheres for various altitudes over the course of the LRO mission. While we cannot validate these predictions by directly comparable measurement, we find that our results conform to expectations and are in good agreement with the nearest available measurements and therefore may be used as reasonable estimates for use in efforts in risk assessment in the planning of future space missions as well as in the study of GCRs. PREDICCS (Predictions of radiation from REleASE, EMMREM, and Data Incorporating the CRaTER, COSTEP, and other solar energetic particles measurements) is an online system designed to provide the scientific community with a comprehensive resource on the radiation environments of the inner heliosphere. The data products shown here will be incorporated into PREDICCS in order to further this effort and daily updates will be made available on the PREDICCS website (http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu).

Analysis of the potential radiation hazard of the 23 July 2012 SEP event observed by STEREO A using the EMMREM model and LRO/CRaTER

We present a study of the potential radiation hazard of the powerful, superfast interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) observed by STEREO A on 23 July 2012. Using energetic proton flux data from the High Energy Telescope and Low Energy Telescope instruments aboard STEREO A together with the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module, we compute dose rates and accumulated doses during the event for both skin/eye and blood forming organs using four physically relevant levels of shielding. For spacesuit equivalent shielding, we compute a peak skin/eye dose rate of 1970 cGy-Eq/d, a value far greater than those of the 2003 Halloween storms or the January and March solar energetic particle events of 2012. However, due to the relative brevity of the event, the resulting accumulated dose was just 383 cGy-Eq, which is more aligned with the total doses of the 2003 Halloween and 2012 January/March events. Additionally, we use dose rates at STEREO B and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter/Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (LRO/CRaTER) during the event to show how the radiation impact is affected by the position of the ICME relative to the observer. Specifically, we find that the energetic particle event associated with the local shock and ICME passage at STEREO A caused greatly enhanced dose rates when compared to STEREO B and LRO/CRaTER, which were longitudinally distant from the ICME. The STEREO A/B dose rates used here will soon be made available to the community as a tool for studying the energetic particle radiation of solar events from different longitudes as a part of NASAs Heliophysics Virtual Observatories and on the Predictions of radiation from REleASE, EMMREM, and Data Incorporating CRaTER, COSTEP, and other SEP measurements (PREDICCS) and CRaTER websites.

A Zone of Preferential Ion Heating Extends Tens of Solar Radii from the Sun

The extreme temperatures and non-thermal nature of the solar corona and solar wind arise from an unidentified physical mechanism that preferentially heats certain ion species relative to others. Spectroscopic indicators of unequal temperatures commence within a fraction of a solar radius above the surface of the Sun, but the outer reach of this mechanism has yet to be determined. Here we present an empirical procedure for combining interplanetary solar wind measurements and a modeled energy equation including Coulomb relaxation to solve for the typical outer boundary of this zone of preferential heating. Applied to two decades of observations by the Wind spacecraft, our results are consistent with preferential heating being active in a zone extending from the transition region in the lower corona to an outer boundary 20-40 solar radii from the Sun, producing a steady state super-mass-proportional

Technology development for the solar probe plus faraday cup

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Mechanical design of the Solar Probe Cup instrument on Solar Probe Plus

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Contributions of primary particles to observed LET for the CRaTER instrument on LRO

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Solar modulation of the deep space galactic cosmic ray lineal energy spectrum measured by CRaTER, 2009–2014

. Preferential ion heating continues far beyond the transition region and is important for the evolution of both the outer corona and the solar wind. The outer boundary of this zone is well below the orbits of spacecraft at 1 AU and even closer missions such as Helios and MESSENGER, meaning it is likely that no existing mission has directly observed intense preferential heating, just residual signatures. We predict that {Parker Solar Probe} will be the first spacecraft with a perihelia sufficiently close to the Sun to pass through the outer boundary, enter the zone of preferential heating, and directly observe the physical mechanism in action.