Aaron A. Moore

Paying attention and the incumbency effect: Voting behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are well-established. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters’ engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate.

Political Attitudes and Behaviour in a Non-Partisan Environment: Toronto 2014

Voting behaviour in municipal elections is understudied in Canada. Existing research is limited by the type of data (aggregate instead of individual-level) and the cases evaluated (partisan when most contests are non-partisan). The objective of this study is to contribute to this literature by using individual-level data about a non-partisan election. To do so, we use data from the Toronto Election Study, conducted during the 2014 election. Our research goals are to evaluate whether a standard approach to understanding vote choice (the multi-stage explanatory model) is applicable in a non-partisan, municipal-level contest, and to determine the correlates of vote choice in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election in particular. Our analysis reveals that, although it was a formally non-partisan contest, voters tended to view the mayoral candidates in both ideological and partisan terms. We also find that a standard vote choice model provides valuable insight into voter preferences at the municipal level.

Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election

Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.

The performance of transparency in public–private infrastructure project governance: The politics of documentary practices

That public–private infrastructure partnerships (P3s) present problems in relation to democratic accountability has often been noted, with calls for greater transparency often following. Such calls tend to assume that anything that promotes transparency will further accountability and openness. Drawing on socio-legal studies of the documentary and other information practices that underpin and operationalise governance, this article carefully examines the features and the possible uses of the documentation that is made public by the PPP sector, in Canada. We find that information practices that perform and produce transparency (such as posting project documents online) may produce a merely illusory accountability. Particular attention is paid to the scale at which infrastructure planning information is made public, the selection of content included in the documents (e.g. photos of buildings versus background information), and the information formats commonly utilised. Overall, we find that the information that is made public does not actually empower the concerned public: projects are presented out of context, devoid of historical or comparative context and without reference to any broader regional or other plan, and when ‘real’ documents are made public, neither the content nor their framing enables effective openness, thus hindering accountability.

Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance The Case of Toronto

Past work has shown that economic conditions influence electoral outcomes at multiple levels of government in Canada and in democratic states around the world. However, there is significant variation in the jurisdictional ability of different governments to influence economic conditions; in particular, municipal governments may be least able to influence the economy. As a result, voters may be less likely to hold municipal incumbents accountable for economic conditions than either provincial or federal politicians. Building on this discussion, this article explores several questions. First, do citizens differentiate between the impacts of different orders of government on economic conditions? Second, does the economy affect incumbent support in local elections? Finally, does knowledge of the jurisdictional responsibilities of the three levels of government condition economic effects at the municipal level in Canada? We consider these questions using individual-level data collected during the 2014 Toronto municipal election.

Why So Few Women and Minorities in Local Politics?: Incumbency and Affinity Voting in Low Information Elections

Previous research has examined the effects of incumbency or affinity voting on the political representation of women and minorities. No study has considered the interaction of these two factors, even though there are good reasons to suspect that both may play a key role in voter choice. This study examines the joint effects of incumbency and gender and racial affinity voting in non-partisan and generally low information ward elections in the City of Toronto. Results reveal the absence of gender affinity effects, regardless of the presence of an incumbent, but that racial affinity is a factor in wards without incumbents.