R. Michael McGregor

The Power of the Dark Side: Negative Partisanship and Political Behaviour in Canada

The origins and implications of partisan identification are well-studied, but negative partisan attitudes—dislike for a particular party—have escaped such scrutiny, even as the politics of negativity enjoys sustained popularity, especially come election time. In this paper we build upon the comparatively modest negative partisanship literature to consider the effects of negative partisan attitudes on a range of political behaviours. There are reasons to suspect that negative and positive partisanship may have different effects; thus, accounting for the unique influence of negative attitudes is important for understanding the full effect of partisanship on political behaviour. Our results, based upon Canadian Election Study data from 2008 and 2011, reveal that, in addition to vote choice, negative partisanship influences voter turnout and a range of political activities, both related and unrelated to parties. These findings provide evidence of the power of the “dark side” of partisanship.

Negative Partisanship in a Multi-party System: The Case of Canada

Abstract The origins and implications of partisan identification are well studied, but negative partisan attitudes – dislike for a particular party – have escaped such scrutiny. We argue that the concept of partisanship, especially in a multi-party system, is incomplete until negative sentiments are considered. In this paper, we refine the concept of negative partisanship (NPID) by providing an improved method of operationalizing it, examine its incidence and relationship with positive party identification in a multi-party system, and propose two theories of its origins. Our results, based upon data from five Canadian federal elections, indicate that studying NPID in a multi-party system requires a broader understanding of the mechanisms that lead to negative party attitudes than in a two-party system.

Paying attention and the incumbency effect: Voting behavior in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

The importance of incumbent evaluations for voting and the existence of an incumbency effect are well-established. However, there is limited research on the effect incumbency has on voters’ engagement with election campaigns. This paper examines whether the use of incumbency as a cue when voting is associated with there being less interest in an election and whether campaign period attentiveness affects incumbent support. We consider these questions using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N, two-wave survey of Torontonians conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election. We find that attentiveness, on its own, does not make voters more likely to support an incumbent or non-incumbent candidate. However, among individuals with high knowledge, attentiveness decreases the likelihood of supporting the incumbent, as opposed to a non-incumbent candidate.

The Effects of Elections Canada's Campaign Period Advertising

Voter participation is widely viewed as invaluable by democratic theorists, and a large majority of members of the Canadian public believe that low turnout weakens Canadian democracy. In response to decreasing rates of turnout in federal elections, Elections Canada has run advertising campaigns during the last several election campaigns encouraging Canadians to participate by voting. Using Election Canadian Study data from 2006 and 2008, this note examines the effect of Elections Canadas advertisements upon turnout and the partisan outcome of elections. Results reveal that the ad campaigns have effects upon both factors. The ads increase turnout among segments of the population with traditionally low turnout rates and are associated with an overall decrease in the Conservative partys vote share.

Political Attitudes and Behaviour in a Non-Partisan Environment: Toronto 2014

Voting behaviour in municipal elections is understudied in Canada. Existing research is limited by the type of data (aggregate instead of individual-level) and the cases evaluated (partisan when most contests are non-partisan). The objective of this study is to contribute to this literature by using individual-level data about a non-partisan election. To do so, we use data from the Toronto Election Study, conducted during the 2014 election. Our research goals are to evaluate whether a standard approach to understanding vote choice (the multi-stage explanatory model) is applicable in a non-partisan, municipal-level contest, and to determine the correlates of vote choice in the 2014 Toronto mayoral election in particular. Our analysis reveals that, although it was a formally non-partisan contest, voters tended to view the mayoral candidates in both ideological and partisan terms. We also find that a standard vote choice model provides valuable insight into voter preferences at the municipal level.

Sex (And Ethnicity) in the City: Affinity Voting in the 2014 Toronto Mayoral Election

Do women vote for women and men for men? Do visible minorities vote for minority candidates, and white voters for white candidates? And what happens when a minority woman appears on the ballot? This study tests for the presence of gender and ethnic affinity voting in the Toronto mayoral election of 2014, where Olivia Chow was the only woman and only visible minority candidate among the three major contenders. Our analysis, which draws on a survey of eligible Toronto voters, is the first to examine the interactive effects of sex and ethnicity on vote choice in Canada in the context of a non-partisan election and in a non-experimental manner. We find strong evidence of ethnic affinity voting and show that Chow received stronger support from ethnic Chinese voters than from other minority groups. Our results also reveal that gender was related to vote choice but only when connected with race.

Voters Who Abstain: Explaining Abstention and Ballot Roll-Off in the 2014 Toronto Municipal Election

This article explores the correlates of ballot roll-off in the 2014 Toronto municipal election. While turnout in the mayoral contest was comparatively high, roughly 4.3% of voters abstained from council races. Using data from the Toronto Election Study, a large-N survey of electors conducted around the time of the 2014 Toronto Election, this study identifies a series of factors related to roll-off from mayoral to council elections. These variables include a number of sociodemographic characteristics and attitudinal factors commonly associated with turnout, measures of attachment to the city, and a series of election-specific factors. Results reveal that many factors commonly associated with abstention similarly drive roll-off, but that the experiences of individual voters also have an impact upon roll-off rates.

Economic Voting and Multilevel Governance The Case of Toronto

Past work has shown that economic conditions influence electoral outcomes at multiple levels of government in Canada and in democratic states around the world. However, there is significant variation in the jurisdictional ability of different governments to influence economic conditions; in particular, municipal governments may be least able to influence the economy. As a result, voters may be less likely to hold municipal incumbents accountable for economic conditions than either provincial or federal politicians. Building on this discussion, this article explores several questions. First, do citizens differentiate between the impacts of different orders of government on economic conditions? Second, does the economy affect incumbent support in local elections? Finally, does knowledge of the jurisdictional responsibilities of the three levels of government condition economic effects at the municipal level in Canada? We consider these questions using individual-level data collected during the 2014 Toronto municipal election.

Why So Few Women and Minorities in Local Politics?: Incumbency and Affinity Voting in Low Information Elections

Previous research has examined the effects of incumbency or affinity voting on the political representation of women and minorities. No study has considered the interaction of these two factors, even though there are good reasons to suspect that both may play a key role in voter choice. This study examines the joint effects of incumbency and gender and racial affinity voting in non-partisan and generally low information ward elections in the City of Toronto. Results reveal the absence of gender affinity effects, regardless of the presence of an incumbent, but that racial affinity is a factor in wards without incumbents.

Persuasion, Partisanship and Evaluations of National Conditions and Governmental Impact: An Experimental Study

ABSTRACT The current study considers the circumstances under which opinions about national issue conditions and government impact on those conditions might be influenced. Using an experimental framework, we examine the effectiveness of messages on a variety of policy issues important to the 2015 Canadian Federal election campaign. The messages consist of a statement about the country’s performance on a variety of issues, accompanied by a relevant image, which together convey either a positive or negative message about issue conditions in Canada. We then evaluate the extent to which messages affect opinions about policy conditions in Canada as well as evaluations of government impact on these policy issues. Finally, we consider whether the effect of the messages is moderated by the partisan leanings of individual voters. We focus upon five policy areas that, we argue, were among the most germane to the 2015 election: the economy, health care, the environment, immigrants and minorities, and national security. Our findings have implications for the literature on issue-ownership, agenda-setting, opinion persuasion, and the attribution of responsibility for national performance.