Abdelhak S Senhadji

Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise

A growth accounting exercise is conducted for 88 countries for 1960-94 to examine the source of cross-country differences in total factor productivity (TFP) levels. Two differences distinguish this analysis from that of the related literature. First, the critical technology parameter – the share of physical capital in output – is econometrically estimated and the usual assumption of identical technology across regions is relaxed. Second, while the few studies on the determinants of cross-country differences in TFP have focused on growth rates of real output this analysis is on levels. Recent theoretical as well as empirical arguments point to the level of TFP as the more relevant variable to explain.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview

In recent years there has been substantial theoretical and empirical work on the role that financial markets play in fostering economic growth and development. This paper provides a selective review of the literature, as well as new empirical evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth for a large cross-section sample of countries. While the results indicate that the effect of financial development on growth is positive, the size of the effect varies with different indicators of financial development, estimation method, data frequency, and the functional form of the relationship.

Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis

A structural import demand equation is derived and estimated for a large number of countries, using recent time-series techniques that address the problem of nonstationarity. The average price elasticity is close to zero in the short run but is slightly higher than one in the long run. A similar pattern holds for income elasticities: the short-run income elasticities are on average less than 0.5, while the long-run income elasticities are close to 1.5. The paper also analyses the small-sample properties of both the ordinary-least-squares (OLS) and the fully modified (FM) estimators of the short- and long-run elasticities, using Monte Carlo methods.

Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles, and The Asian Crisis

This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.

Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade in LDCs: The S-curve

Backus, Kehoe and Kydland in their analysis of the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance found that the lead and lag correlation between these two variables is S-shaped for a set of OECD countries. Furthermore, they show that this S-curve can be replicated by a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. Surprisingly, the S-curve describes also fairly well the dynamic effect of terms of trade on the trade balance for a large set of LDCs. This S-curve can also be reproduced by a one-country model that captures some important features of LDC economies. The S-curve is unexpectedly robust to variations in the key parameters of the model.

Sources of Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a developing country that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward-sloping supply function of foreign loans. Decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. That uncertainty generates forecast errors that lead to substantial debt accumulation. It is found that the assumption of an upward-sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic formulation for developing countries than the usual perfect elasticity, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for analyzing asset accumulation in the small open economy framework.

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead.

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.

Financial Sector Reforms and Prospects for Financial Integration in Maghreb Countries

A healthy and dynamic financial sector is essential to achieving high and sustainable economic growth in the Maghreb region-Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia. Financial integration within the Maghreb region will help deepen financial markets, increase their efficiency, and enhance the resilience of economies to shocks. It can also play a catalyst role for the global financial integration of the Maghreb region. This paper provides an overview of the financial systems, takes stock of the reform effort and highlights the challenges ahead, and examines the prospects for financial integration in the five Maghreb countries.

How Strong are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in smoothing the impact of shocks depends critically on the size of fiscal multipliers. This is particularly relevant for the GCC countries given the need for fiscal policy to cushion the economy from large terms of trade shocks in the absence of an independent monetary policy and where fiscal multipliers could be weak dues to substantial leakages through remittances and imports. The paper provides estimates of the size of fiscal multipliers using a variety of models. The focus is on government spending since tax revenues are small. The long-run multiplier estimates vary in the 0.3-0.7 range for current expenditure and 0.6-1.1 for capital spending, depending on the particular specification and estimation method chosen. These estimates fall within the range of fiscal multiplier estimates in the literature for non-oil emerging markets.

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks; Evidence from Existing Federations

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the U.S., Canada, and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sharing) and 13-24 percent of permanent shocks (redistribution). This fiscal insurance largely operates through automatic stabilizers embedded in a central budget primarily through federal taxes and transfers to individuals, rather than transfers from the central government to state budgets. These results have implications for the design of fiscal risk-sharing mechanisms in the euro area.