Abdulrahman K. Alkhalaf

Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Wet-Season Precipitation in the Arabian Peninsula

AbstractMultidecadal variations in the relationship between El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arabian Peninsula rainfall are investigated using observed data for the last 60 years and various atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. The wet season in the Arabian Peninsula from November to April was considered. The 6-month averaged Arabian rainfall was negatively correlated with ENSO for an earlier 30-yr period from 1950 to 1979 and positively correlated to ENSO for a more recent period from 1981 to 2010. The multidecadal variations can be attributed to the variations in Indian Ocean SST anomalies accompanied by ENSO. In the early 30-yr period, ENSO accompanied relatively large SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, whereas in the recent 30-yr period it accompanied relatively small SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The atmospheric anomalies in the Arabian region during ENSO are combined responses to the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which offset each other during ENSO. The...

Annual and weekly patterns of ozone and particulate matter in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Air pollution has been an increasing concern within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In this work the authors present an analysis of daily ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and particulate matter (<10 μm aerodynamic diameter; PM10) concentrations for two years (2010 and 2011) at sites in and around the coastal city of Jeddah, as well as a remote background site for comparison. Monthly and weekly variations, along with their implications and consequences, were also examined. O3 within Jeddah was remarkably low, and exhibited the so-called weekend effect—elevated O3 levels on the weekends, despite reduced emissions of O3 precursors on those days. Weekend O3 increases averaged between 12% and 14% in the city, suggesting that NOx/volatile organic compound (VOC) ratios within cities such as Jeddah may be exceptionally high. Sites upwind or far removed from Jeddah did not display this weekend effect. Based on these results, emission control strategies in and around Jeddah must carefully address NOx/VOC ratios so as to reduce O3 at downwind locations without increasing it within urban locations themselves. PM10 concentrations within Jeddah were elevated compared with North American cites of similar climatology, though comparable to other large cities within the Middle East. Implications: Daily concentrations of O3, PM10, and NOx in and around the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are analyzed and compared with those of other reference cities. Extremely low O3 levels, along with a significant urban weekend effect (higher weekend O3, despite reduced NOx concentrations), is apparent, along with high levels of PM10 within the city. Urban O3 in Jeddah was found to be lower than that of other comparable cities, but the strong weekend effect suggests that care must be taken to reduce downwind O3 levels without increasing them within the city itself. Further research into the emissions and chemistry contributing to the reduced O3 levels within the city is warranted.

Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain using RegCM4

The performance of a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climate characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been evaluated. The simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The model has been forced with the boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2010. An east–west cold bias is found in the northern part of the MENA domain in RegCM4 that is absent in the ERA-Interim driving forcings, whereas a large warm bias is found over the southern Arabian Peninsula (Yemen/Oman) for both RegCM4 and ERA-Interim. The possible causes leading to the warm bias over Yemen/Oman in the RegCM4 are discussed. The model performed well in capturing the salient features of precipitation which includes ITCZ, Mediterranean cyclones as well as precipitation minima over the deserts. Moreover, the annual cycles of precipitation and mean temperature over the prominent river basins of the region have been ably captured by the model. Temperature-precipitation relationship revealed that the ERA-Interim driving forcings stay closer to the observations; however, RegCM4 remains competent for most of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification types. Performance of the model in capturing the near surface winds and specific humidity is also presented. Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that RegCM4 is well suited to conduct long-term high-resolution climate change projection for the future period over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain.

Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

BackgroundA new coupled global climate model (CGCM) has been developed at the Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King Abdulaziz University (KAU), known as Saudi-KAU CGCM.PurposeThe main aim of the model development is to generate seasonal to subseasonal forecasting and long-term climate simulations.MethodsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM currently includes two atmospheric dynamical cores, two land components, three ocean components, and multiple physical parameterization options. The component modules and parameterization schemes have been adopted from different sources, and some have undergone modifications at CECCR. The model is characterized by its versatility, ease of use, and the physical fidelity of its climate simulations, in both idealized and realistic configurations. A description of the model, its component packages, and parameterizations is provided.ResultsResults from selected configurations demonstrate the model’s ability to reasonably simulate the climate on different time scales. The coupled model simulates El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, which is fundamental for seasonal forecasting. It also simulates Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like disturbances with features similar to observations, although slightly weaker.ConclusionsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM ability to simulate the ENSO and the MJO suggests that it is capable of making useful predictions on subseasonal to seasonal timescales.

An improvement in mass flux convective parameterizations and its impact on seasonal simulations using a coupled model

A new closure and a modified detrainment for the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus parameterization scheme are proposed. In the modified convective scheme which is named as King Abdulaziz University (KAU) scheme, the closure depends on both the buoyancy force and the environment mean relative humidity. A lateral entrainment rate varying with environment relative humidity is proposed and tends to suppress convection in a dry atmosphere. The detrainment rate also varies with environment relative humidity. The KAU scheme has been tested in a single column model (SCM) and implemented in a coupled global climate model (CGCM). Increased coupling between environment and clouds in the KAU scheme results in improved sensitivity of the depth and strength of convection to environmental humidity compared to the original SAS scheme. The new scheme improves precipitation simulation with better representations of moisture and temperature especially during suppressed convection periods. The KAU scheme implemented in the Seoul National University (SNU) CGCM shows improved precipitation over the tropics. The simulated precipitation pattern over the Arabian Peninsula and Northeast African region is also improved.

Temporal variations of fine and coarse particulate matter sources in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the seasonal variations and weekday/weekend differences in fine (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM2.5) and coarse (aerodynamic diameter 2.5–10 μm; PM2.5–10) particulate matter mass concentrations, elemental constituents, and potential source origins in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Air quality samples were collected over 1 yr, from June 2011 to May 2012 at a frequency of three times per week, and analyzed. The average mass concentrations of PM2.5 (21.9 μg/m3) and PM10 (107.8 μg/m3) during the sampling period exceeded the recommended annual average levels by the World Health Organization (WHO) for PM2.5 (10 μg/m3) and PM10 (20 μg/m3), respectively. Similar to other Middle Eastern locales, PM2.5–10 is the prevailing mass component of atmospheric particulate matter at Jeddah, accounting for approximately 80% of the PM10 mass. Considerations of enrichment factors, absolute principal component analysis (APCA), concentration roses, and backward trajectories identified the following source categories for both PM2.5 and PM2.5–10: (1) soil/road dust, (2) incineration, and (3) traffic; and for PM2.5 only, (4) residual oil burning. Soil/road dust accounted for a major portion of both the PM2.5 (27%) and PM2.5–10 (77%) mass, and the largest source contributor for PM2.5 was from residual oil burning (63%). Temporal variations of PM2.5–10 and PM2.5 were observed, with the elevated concentration levels observed for mass during the spring (due to increased dust storm frequency) and on weekdays (due to increased traffic). The predominant role of windblown soil and road dust in both the PM2.5 and PM2.5–10 masses in this city may have implications regarding the toxicity of these particles versus those in the Western world where most PM health assessments have been made in the past. These results support the need for region-specific epidemiological investigations to be conducted and considered in future PM standard setting. Implications: Temporal variations of fine and coarse PM mass, elemental constituents, and sources were examined in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for the first time. The main source of PM2.5–10 is natural windblown soil and road dust, whereas the predominant source of PM2.5 is residual oil burning, generated from the port and oil refinery located west of the air sampler, suggesting that targeted emission controls could significantly improve the air quality in the city. The compositional differences point to a need for health effect studies to be conducted in this region, so as to directly assess the applicability of the existing guidelines to the Middle East air pollution.

Assessment of Uncertainties in Projected Temperature and Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula Using Three Categories of Cmip5 Multimodel Ensembles

BackgroundProjections of temperature and precipitation with low uncertainties are key parameters to climate change-related studies.PurposeThe projected temperature and precipitation and their uncertainties over the Arabian Peninsula for the 21st century for three CMIP5 multimodel ensembles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are examined in this paper.MethodsAnalyzing the performance of 30 CMIP5 model individually, they are categorized into three groups for the present climate (1976–2005). By applying simple model averaging ensemble method, three multimodel ensemble means, namely: (i) all CMIP5 models ensemble (AME), (ii) selected CMIP5 models ensemble (SME), and (iii) best-performing CMIP5 models ensemble (BME) are developed.ResultsOver the Arabian Peninsula, a continuous rise in temperature is obtained in all three ensembles (i.e., AME, SME, and BME) in the 21st century. The BME shows enhanced changes in temperature at the end of 21st century as compared to AME and SME. Moreover, the BME shows a remarkable reduction in uncertainties for the projected temperature. The AME, SME, and BME show strong inter-annual variability for the projected precipitation over the peninsula. Compared to AME and SME, the BME revealed enhanced positive change in the annual mean precipitation by the end of 21st century.ConclusionsRegionally, southern/northwestern areas of the peninsula receive enhanced/reduced future precipitation as compared to the present climate. The differences in the projected precipitation and temperature signals increase largely between the three ensembles towards the end of 21st century. Therefore, it is concluded that selecting the best-performing models may lead a better planning by the policy makers and stakeholder for the region.

Association between Exposure to Ambient Air Particulates and Metabolic Syndrome Components in a Saudi Arabian Population

Recent epidemiological evidence suggests that exposure to particulates may be a factor in the etiology of metabolic syndrome (MetS). In this novel study, we investigated the relationship between particulate levels and prevalence of MetS component abnormalities (hypertension, hyperglycemia, obesity) in a recruited cohort (N = 2025) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. We observed significant associations between a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 and increased risks for MetS (Risk Ratio (RR): 1.12; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.06–1.19), hyperglycemia (RR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03–1.14), and hypertension (RR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04–1.14). PM2.5 from soil/road dust was found to be associated with hyperglycemia (RR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06–1.19) and hypertension (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.05–1.18), while PM2.5 from traffic was associated with hyperglycemia (RR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.05–1.71). We did not observe any health associations with source-specific mass exposures. Our findings suggest that exposure to specific elemental components of PM2.5, especially Ni, may contribute to the development of cardiometabolic disorders.