Mansour Almazroui

Direct effects and feedback of desert dust on the climate of the Arabian Peninsula during the wet season: a regional climate model study

We investigate the dust radiative forcing and its feedback on the Arabian Peninsula’s wet season climate using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics-Regional Climate Model (ICTP-RegCM4). We have found that the dust plumes exert a negative (positive) radiative forcing at the surface (top of the atmosphere) by reducing incoming solar radiation reaching the ground and locally heating up the atmosphere column. Consequently, the surface air temperature is cooler, hence indicating a decrease in the warm bias and an increase in the temperature gradient. This reduces the geopotential heights and enhances the low-level wind convergence, suggesting stronger upward motion. These changes increase evaporation, the difference between precipitation and evaporation in the atmosphere and rainfall over the Peninsula, indicating an intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The decrease in the precipitation dry bias and the large reduction in the temperature warm bias caused by the impact of dust over the entire Peninsula represent a significant success for the RegCM4 simulation. Therefore, the inclusion of dust in the simulation of the Arabian Peninsula’s climate for the wet season contributes to an improved performance of this regional climate model over the region.

Multidecadal Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Wet-Season Precipitation in the Arabian Peninsula

AbstractMultidecadal variations in the relationship between El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arabian Peninsula rainfall are investigated using observed data for the last 60 years and various atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. The wet season in the Arabian Peninsula from November to April was considered. The 6-month averaged Arabian rainfall was negatively correlated with ENSO for an earlier 30-yr period from 1950 to 1979 and positively correlated to ENSO for a more recent period from 1981 to 2010. The multidecadal variations can be attributed to the variations in Indian Ocean SST anomalies accompanied by ENSO. In the early 30-yr period, ENSO accompanied relatively large SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, whereas in the recent 30-yr period it accompanied relatively small SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean. The atmospheric anomalies in the Arabian region during ENSO are combined responses to the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST anomalies, which offset each other during ENSO. The...

Contribution of Synoptic Transients to the Potential Predictability of PNA Circulation Anomalies: El Niño versus La Niña

AbstractThe potential predictability (PP) of seasonal-mean 200-hPa geopotential height (Z200) anomalies in the Pacific–North American (PNA) region is examined for El Nino and La Nina separately by using 50 ensemble members of twentieth-century AGCM simulations. Observed sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed for the period 1870–2009, and 14 El Nino and La Nina years after 1900 are selected for the present study. The domain-averaged value of PP for Z200 in the PNA region, as measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, for El Nino is about 60% larger than that of La Nina. Such a large PP is mainly due to a larger signal and partly to less noise during El Nino compared to that during La Nina . The transient eddy feedback to the PNA circulation anomalies is stronger during El Nino events (about 50%) than that during La Nina, and this difference in the transients contributes significantly to the different Z200 signals in the PNA region. The noise variance of the transients during El Nino is about 17% smaller t...

Annual and weekly patterns of ozone and particulate matter in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Air pollution has been an increasing concern within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In this work the authors present an analysis of daily ozone (O3), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and particulate matter (<10 μm aerodynamic diameter; PM10) concentrations for two years (2010 and 2011) at sites in and around the coastal city of Jeddah, as well as a remote background site for comparison. Monthly and weekly variations, along with their implications and consequences, were also examined. O3 within Jeddah was remarkably low, and exhibited the so-called weekend effect—elevated O3 levels on the weekends, despite reduced emissions of O3 precursors on those days. Weekend O3 increases averaged between 12% and 14% in the city, suggesting that NOx/volatile organic compound (VOC) ratios within cities such as Jeddah may be exceptionally high. Sites upwind or far removed from Jeddah did not display this weekend effect. Based on these results, emission control strategies in and around Jeddah must carefully address NOx/VOC ratios so as to reduce O3 at downwind locations without increasing it within urban locations themselves. PM10 concentrations within Jeddah were elevated compared with North American cites of similar climatology, though comparable to other large cities within the Middle East. Implications: Daily concentrations of O3, PM10, and NOx in and around the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are analyzed and compared with those of other reference cities. Extremely low O3 levels, along with a significant urban weekend effect (higher weekend O3, despite reduced NOx concentrations), is apparent, along with high levels of PM10 within the city. Urban O3 in Jeddah was found to be lower than that of other comparable cities, but the strong weekend effect suggests that care must be taken to reduce downwind O3 levels without increasing them within the city itself. Further research into the emissions and chemistry contributing to the reduced O3 levels within the city is warranted.

Simulation of temperature and precipitation climatology for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain using RegCM4

The performance of a regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RegCM4) in simulating the climate characteristics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been evaluated. The simulations carried out in this study contribute to the joint effort by the international regional downscaling community called Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The model has been forced with the boundary conditions obtained from the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for the period 1979–2010. An east–west cold bias is found in the northern part of the MENA domain in RegCM4 that is absent in the ERA-Interim driving forcings, whereas a large warm bias is found over the southern Arabian Peninsula (Yemen/Oman) for both RegCM4 and ERA-Interim. The possible causes leading to the warm bias over Yemen/Oman in the RegCM4 are discussed. The model performed well in capturing the salient features of precipitation which includes ITCZ, Mediterranean cyclones as well as precipitation minima over the deserts. Moreover, the annual cycles of precipitation and mean temperature over the prominent river basins of the region have been ably captured by the model. Temperature-precipitation relationship revealed that the ERA-Interim driving forcings stay closer to the observations; however, RegCM4 remains competent for most of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification types. Performance of the model in capturing the near surface winds and specific humidity is also presented. Based on the results of this study, it is concluded that RegCM4 is well suited to conduct long-term high-resolution climate change projection for the future period over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain.

Saudi-KAU Coupled Global Climate Model: Description and Performance

BackgroundA new coupled global climate model (CGCM) has been developed at the Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King Abdulaziz University (KAU), known as Saudi-KAU CGCM.PurposeThe main aim of the model development is to generate seasonal to subseasonal forecasting and long-term climate simulations.MethodsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM currently includes two atmospheric dynamical cores, two land components, three ocean components, and multiple physical parameterization options. The component modules and parameterization schemes have been adopted from different sources, and some have undergone modifications at CECCR. The model is characterized by its versatility, ease of use, and the physical fidelity of its climate simulations, in both idealized and realistic configurations. A description of the model, its component packages, and parameterizations is provided.ResultsResults from selected configurations demonstrate the model’s ability to reasonably simulate the climate on different time scales. The coupled model simulates El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, which is fundamental for seasonal forecasting. It also simulates Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like disturbances with features similar to observations, although slightly weaker.ConclusionsThe Saudi-KAU CGCM ability to simulate the ENSO and the MJO suggests that it is capable of making useful predictions on subseasonal to seasonal timescales.

An improvement in mass flux convective parameterizations and its impact on seasonal simulations using a coupled model

A new closure and a modified detrainment for the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) cumulus parameterization scheme are proposed. In the modified convective scheme which is named as King Abdulaziz University (KAU) scheme, the closure depends on both the buoyancy force and the environment mean relative humidity. A lateral entrainment rate varying with environment relative humidity is proposed and tends to suppress convection in a dry atmosphere. The detrainment rate also varies with environment relative humidity. The KAU scheme has been tested in a single column model (SCM) and implemented in a coupled global climate model (CGCM). Increased coupling between environment and clouds in the KAU scheme results in improved sensitivity of the depth and strength of convection to environmental humidity compared to the original SAS scheme. The new scheme improves precipitation simulation with better representations of moisture and temperature especially during suppressed convection periods. The KAU scheme implemented in the Seoul National University (SNU) CGCM shows improved precipitation over the tropics. The simulated precipitation pattern over the Arabian Peninsula and Northeast African region is also improved.

Evaluation of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and carbon monoxide at nine sites in Saudi Arabia during 2007

This paper presents a one-year record of in situ air-quality data from nine sites throughout Saudi Arabia. The data set is composed of hourly measurements of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) at six of the largest cities in Saudi Arabia (Riyadh, Jeddah, Makkah, Yanbu, Dammam, Hafouf) and two remote locations in the mountainous southwestern region of Alsodah for the year 2007. The authors found that international O3 and CO standards were routinely exceeded throughout the year at many sites, and that exceedances increased during Ramadan (Sep. 12 – Oct. 13), the Islamic month of fasting when much of normal daily activity is shifted to nighttime hours. In general NO2 and CO levels were higher in Saudi cities compared to U.S. cities of comparable population, while O3 levels were lower. There was a general trend for O3 and NO2 to be negatively correlated in Saudi cities in contrast to U.S. cities where the correlation is positive, suggesting that ozone chemistry in Saudi Arabia is limited by volatile organic compound emissions. This may be caused by low biogenic emissions from vegetation. Pollutant levels were lower at most Saudi sites during the four day Hajj period (Dec. 18–21) but higher in Makkah which receives millions of visitors during Hajj. The authors also found that ozone levels were elevated during the weekend (Thursday & Friday) relative to weekday levels despite lower NO2, a phenomenon known as the “weekend effect.” As little air quality data is available from Saudi Arabia in the English-language literature, this data set fills a knowledge gap and improves understanding of air quality in an important but under-reported region of the world. Implications: Air quality measurements at nine sites in Saudi Arabia provide a detailed look at spatial and temporal patterns of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). NO2 and CO levels increased in most cities during the fasting month of Ramadan, whereas O3 levels decreased. This led to an increased frequency of CO exceedances based on international standards. NO2 and CO also increased in Makkah during the Hajj pilgrimage. In general, NO2 and O3 levels were anticorrelated at most sites, suggesting that O3 chemistry is limited by volatile organic compound emissions throughout much of Saudi Arabia.

A mass flux closure function in a GCM based on the Richardson number

A mass flux closure in a general circulation model (GCM) was developed in terms of the mean gradient Richardson number (GRN), which is defined as the ratio between the buoyancy and the shear-driven kinetic energy in the planetary boundary layer. The cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations using the tropical ocean and global atmosphere-coupled ocean–atmosphere response experiment forcing show that cloud-base mass flux is well correlated with the GRN. Using the CRM simulations, a mass flux closure function is formulated as an exponential function of the GRN and it is implemented in the Arakawa–Schubert convective scheme. The GCM simulations with the new mass flux closure are compared to those of the GCM with the conventional mass flux closure based on convective available potential energy. Because of the exponential function, the new closure permits convective precipitation only when the GRN has a sufficiently large value. When the GRN has a relatively small value, the convection is suppressed while the convective instability is released by large-scale precipitation. As a result, the ratio of convective precipitation to total precipitation is reduced and there is an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation, more similar to the observations. The new closure also improves the diurnal cycle of precipitation due to a time delay of the large GRN with respect to convective instability.

Air quality in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT Yanbu, on the Red Sea, is an affluent Saudi Arabian industrial city of modest size. Substantial effort has been spent to balance environmental quality, especially air pollution, and industrial development. We have analyzed six years of observations of criteria pollutants O3, SO2, particles (PM2.5 and PM10) and the known ozone precursors—volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). The results suggest frequent VOC-limited conditions in which ozone concentrations increase with decreasing NOx and with increasing VOCs when NOx is plentiful. For the remaining circumstances ozone has a complex non-linear relationship with the VOCs. The interactions between these factors at Yanbu cause measurable impacts on air pollution including the weekend effect in which ozone concentrations stay the same or even increase despite significantly lower emissions of the precursors on the weekends. Air pollution was lower during the Eids (al-Fitr and al-Adha), Ramadan and the Hajj periods. During Ramadan, there were substantial night time emissions as the cycle everyday living is almost reversed between night and day. The exceedances of air pollution standards were evaluated using criteria from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), World Health Organization (WHO), the Saudi Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME) and the Royal Commission Environmental Regulations (RCER). The latter are stricter standards set just for Yanbu and Jubail. For the fine particles (PM2.5), an analysis of the winds showed a major impact from desert dust. This effect had to be taken into account but still left many occasions when standards were exceeded. Fewer exceedances were found for SO2, and fewer still for ozone. The paper presents a comprehensive view of air quality at this isolated desert urban environment. Implications: Frequent VOC-limited conditions are found at Yanbu in Saudi Arabia that increase ozone pollution if NOx is are reduced. In this desert environment, increased nightlife produces the highest levels of VOCs and NOx at night rather than the day. The effects increase during Ramadan. Fine particles peak twice a day—the morning peak is caused by traffic and increases with decreasing wind, potentially representing health concerns, but the larger afternoon peak is caused by the wind, and it increases with increasing wind speeds. These features suggest that exposure to pollutants must be redefined for such an environment.