Abigail L. S. Swann

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO2, but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity

Significance We show that the water savings that plants experience under high CO2 conditions compensate for much of the effect of warmer temperatures, keeping the amount of water on land, on average, higher than we would predict with common drought metrics, and with a different spatial pattern. The implications of plants needing less water under high CO2 reaches beyond drought prediction to the assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, wildfire risk, and vegetation dynamics. Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.

Remote Vegetation Feedbacks and the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara

AbstractIn the mid-Holocene, the climate of northern Africa was characterized by wetter conditions than present, as evidenced by higher paleolake levels and pollen assemblages of savannah vegetation suggesting a wetter, greener Sahara. Previous modeling studies have struggled to simulate sufficient amounts of precipitation when considering orbital forcing alone, with limited improvement from considering the effects of local grasslands. Here it is proposed that remote forcing from expanded forest cover in Eurasia relative to today is capable of shifting the intertropical convergence zone northward, resulting in an enhancement in precipitation over northern Africa approximately 6000 years ago greater than that resulting from orbital forcing and local vegetation alone. It is demonstrated that the remote and local forcing of atmospheric circulation by vegetation can lead to different dynamical patterns with consequences for precipitation across the globe. These ecoclimate teleconnections represent the linkage...

Toward accounting for ecoclimate teleconnections: intra- and inter-continental consequences of altered energy balance after vegetation change

ContextVegetation is projected to continue to undergo major structural changes in coming decades due to land conversion and climate change, including widespread forest die-offs. These vegetation changes are important not only for their local or regional climatic effects, but also because they can affect climate and subsequently vegetation in other regions or continents through “ecoclimate teleconnections”.ObjectivesWe propose that ecoclimate teleconnections are a fundamental link among regions within and across continents, and are central to advancing large-scale macrosystems ecology.Methods and resultsWe illustrate potential ecoclimate teleconnections in a bounding simulation that assumes complete tree cover loss in western North America due to tree die-off, and which predicts subsequent drying and reduced net primary productivity in other areas of North America, the Amazon and elsewhere. Central to accurately modeling such ecoclimate teleconnections is characterizing how vegetation change alters albedo and other components of the land-surface energy balance and then scales up to impact the climate system. We introduce a framework for rapid field-based characterization of vegetation structure and energy balance to help address this challenge.ConclusionsEcoclimate teleconnections are likely a fundamental aspect of macrosystems ecology needed to account for alterations to large-scale atmospheric-ecological couplings in response to vegetation change, including deforestation, afforestation and die-off.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

ISS observations offer insights into plant function

In 2018 technologies on the International Space Station will provide ~1 year of synchronous observations of ecosystem composition, structure and function. We discuss these instruments and how they can be used to constrain global models and improve our understanding of the current state of terrestrial ecosystems.

Progressive Midlatitude Afforestation: Impacts on Clouds, Global Energy Transport, and Precipitation

AbstractVegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and nonlinear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover in the northern midlatitudes is systematically evaluated. This study shows that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern midlatitudes determines the local climate response in a nonlinear fashion, and the authors identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks—a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large ...

Observed radar reflectivity in convectively coupled Kelvin and mixed Rossby‐gravity waves

[1] Propagating disturbances in the tropical atmosphere exhibiting characteristics of linear equatorial waves have been shown to be ‘‘coupled’’ to convection. In some cases, a rain event at a specific location can be associated with a particular wave of sufficiently large amplitude. Rain events spanning three years at Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, 8.72N 167.73E, are classified by associated wave type (i.e. Kelvin or mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG)) using space-time spectral-filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Contoured frequency by altitude diagrams (CFADs) of radar for the classified dates were compared between the two groups. The Kelvin wave accumulated CFAD has a distribution shifted to lower reflectivities compared to MRG suggesting that Kelvin storms likely contain a larger fraction of stratiform to convective area compared to MRG storms. Citation: Swann, A., A. H. Sobel, S. E. Yuter, and G. N. Kiladis (2006), Observed radar reflectivity in convectively coupled Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10804, doi:10.1029/2006GL025979.

Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.Increasing zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation is projected by 2100, with increases over Asian and African forests and decreases over South American forests. Plant physiological responses to increasing CO2 are now identified as a primary driving mechanism.