Adam Blake

TOURISM CRISIS MANAGEMENT: US Response to September 11

Abstract Policymakers are faced with the predicament of if and how they should respond to an unexpected and sudden downturn in tourism demand. In the past, they have made these decisions in the absence of research into the relative effectiveness of different responses. The downturn in the United States following September 11 is a particularly vivid example of tourism crisis. This paper analyzes the effects of this crisis using a computable general equilibrium model of the US and also examines potential and actual policy responses to the crisis. Sector-specific targeted subsidies and tax reductions are found to be the most efficient means of handling the situation.

Tourism and globalization: Economic Impact in Indonesia

Abstract The issue of whether globalization is beneficial remains controversial, particularly because globalization policies are often examined without consideration of their interactions with key sectors of the economy, notably tourism. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to examine the effects of globalization via tariff reductions, as a stand-alone policy and in conjunction with tourism growth. The results show that tourism growth amplifies the positive effects of globalization and lessens its adverse effects. Production increases and welfare improves, while adverse effects on government deficits and the trade balance are reduced.

Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on Tourism and the UK Economy

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak significantly reduced tourism expenditures in the UK, as well as affecting the agricultural sector. This paper quantifies the effects of FMD on tourism, agriculture and all other sectors of the UK economy using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK economy. The results show that the FMD outbreak had larger adverse effects on GDP through reductions in tourism expenditures than through other effects. The implication for policy makers is that the roles of tourism-related sectors should be considered in the formulation of agricultural policy.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Destination Marketing Campaigns: Comparative Analysis of Conversion Studies

This article presents findings of a comparative study of destination marketing evaluation research in the United Kingdom to identify success factors, highlight best practices, and draw attention to determinants of poor performance in destination marketing campaign activities. Increasing levels of competition between tourism destinations has led to increased pressure on destination marketing organizations (DMOs) to maximize the effectiveness of their marketing spend. Therefore, the evaluation of tourism marketing campaigns reveals not only if the campaign has been successful in terms of attracting visitors but also if the expectations in terms of expenditure impact and return on investment are achieved. This study investigates the success of 18 campaigns directed to potential domestic visitors, using the conversion study technique to evaluate expenditure impact and return on investment. This article contributes to marketing practice through increased understanding of the key components that lead to a high return on investment and higher impact.

Modelling the Economic Impact of International Tourism on the Chinese Economy: A CGE Analysis of the Beijing 2008 Olympics

International inbound tourism to China has grown phenomenally since 1980 and the hosting of the Olympics in 2008 was an important milestone. This paper takes the first step in applying computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to forecasting the economic contribution of tourism generated by the Beijing Olympics. CGE modelling has been widely applied to different tourism issues in many countries. In China, it has been used in fields such as taxation and international trade. However, economic impact studies on Chinas tourism using CGE modelling have not been found. The paper includes two types of estimations: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante estimation was conducted before the Beijing Olympics and thus predicted the impact of international tourism based on historical data, such as previous literature and historical statistics. The ex post estimation was conducted several months after the Beijing Olympics and the estimation was based on up-to-date statistics published by the China National Tourism Administration. The economic impact generated from the two types of estimations is compared. It was found that, while the economic impact of international tourism was predicted to be positive in the ex ante estimation, this impact was analysed as negative in the ex post estimation.

China's tourism in a global financial crisis: a computable general equilibrium approach

Tourism is vulnerable to externalities such as natural disasters and man-made crises. The current global economic slowdown has adversely affected global tourism. While headline figures show that international tourism is suffering as a consequence of this economic crisis, domestic tourism is larger in many countries and impacts through this market could be larger than through international tourism. A common viewpoint is that an increase in domestic tourism could compensate a decline in inbound tourism, which supports the policy of focusing on the development of domestic tourism. This paper will test this viewpoint in the context of Chinas tourism. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of economic impact of the economic slowdown on Chinas tourism using computable general equilibrium modelling and then bring forward some policy suggestions on the development of Chinas tourism.

Tourism Demand Modeling by Purpose of Visit and Nationality

This study compares results from tourism demand models where tourism expenditures are modeled separately by purpose of visit and nationality pairings against results from models for which expenditure is treated on a more aggregate basis. A structural time-series model is estimated for each case, with data for inbound tourism demand to the United Kingdom, with the same set of explanatory variables. Not only can conducting the analysis on a disaggregate basis improve model estimates, but in some instances aggregate models introduce systematic errors into the estimation process. Moreover, demand modelers often spend considerable effort in comparing econometric techniques using aggregate data. Therefore, this study argues that consideration of modeling at less aggregate levels should be considered more routinely in demand modeling.

The Dynamics of Tourism's Economic Impact

When considering the economic impact of tourism, it is common to model tourism expenditures in a static model, providing the impact that tourism spending would have if its effects were contained in a single year. This confuses two features; first, that any change in tourism spending has a time dimension and, second, it ignores changes that may occur in years after the change in spending has taken place, or that occur prior to it if the spending is anticipated. This paper uses a dynamic CGE model to examine these effects, providing comparisons between anticipated and unanticipated tourism booms.

The economic impact of Hawaii's cruise industry

The cruise industry worldwide has increased rapidly since the beginning of the millennium. Hawaii is no exception to this. Since the 1970s, cruise ships periodically visited the Hawaiian Islands, yet overnight cruising among the islands was rare. From 2001 to 2004, cruise ships sailing to and around Hawaii were solely foreign-flagged ships, including those home based in Hawaii. This meant much of the tourism revenue and taxes did not accrue to the local economy. Since July 2004, in addition to the foreign-flagged ships, a U.S.-flagged ship has been home-ported in the islands, paying Hawaii taxes and hiring U.S. crews with two more U.S.-flagged ships being added to the fleet in 2005 and 2006. This article uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the economywide economic impact of the cruise industry on the state of Hawaii. Using the 2002 intercounty input-output table as a benchmark, the multiregion CGE model takes the direct expenditure estimates of cruise passengers, expenditure by cruise crews, and the direct expenditures by the cruise lines, as computed by the State of Hawaii and uses these direct impacts as simulations in the CGE model. Gross value added and welfare are calculated for each county and the state as a whole. Some regions benefit more than others.

How does the productivity of foreign direct investment spill over to local firms in Chinese manufacturing

We use a firm-level dataset for Chinese manufacturing, to estimate productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to local firms. The spillover channels considered include inter-firm labour turnover/mobility; vertical input-output linkages; exporting externalities; and horizontal effects. The roles of these channels are dependent on various factors including export propensity, R&D expenditure per capita, employee training, and ownership structure. We find that export of MNEs is the most prominent spillover channel. Labour turnover and horizontal demonstration and competition bring positive spillovers to SOEs but not to local private firms. Vertical linkages are not found to be significant.