ShiNa Li

Modelling the Economic Impact of International Tourism on the Chinese Economy: A CGE Analysis of the Beijing 2008 Olympics

International inbound tourism to China has grown phenomenally since 1980 and the hosting of the Olympics in 2008 was an important milestone. This paper takes the first step in applying computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to forecasting the economic contribution of tourism generated by the Beijing Olympics. CGE modelling has been widely applied to different tourism issues in many countries. In China, it has been used in fields such as taxation and international trade. However, economic impact studies on Chinas tourism using CGE modelling have not been found. The paper includes two types of estimations: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante estimation was conducted before the Beijing Olympics and thus predicted the impact of international tourism based on historical data, such as previous literature and historical statistics. The ex post estimation was conducted several months after the Beijing Olympics and the estimation was based on up-to-date statistics published by the China National Tourism Administration. The economic impact generated from the two types of estimations is compared. It was found that, while the economic impact of international tourism was predicted to be positive in the ex ante estimation, this impact was analysed as negative in the ex post estimation.

China's tourism in a global financial crisis: a computable general equilibrium approach

Tourism is vulnerable to externalities such as natural disasters and man-made crises. The current global economic slowdown has adversely affected global tourism. While headline figures show that international tourism is suffering as a consequence of this economic crisis, domestic tourism is larger in many countries and impacts through this market could be larger than through international tourism. A common viewpoint is that an increase in domestic tourism could compensate a decline in inbound tourism, which supports the policy of focusing on the development of domestic tourism. This paper will test this viewpoint in the context of Chinas tourism. This paper aims to evaluate the magnitude of economic impact of the economic slowdown on Chinas tourism using computable general equilibrium modelling and then bring forward some policy suggestions on the development of Chinas tourism.

Evaluating economic impacts of major sports events – a meta analysis of the key trends

For many years there has been wide recognition of the economic impact that major sports events can generate in attracting visitors and event-related construction investment. This article seeks to provide a brief overview of the key approaches that have been used to assess the economic impact of major events over the past two decades including multiplier analysis, input–output modelling, and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling. The article also discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of these approaches. In order to provide a platform for future research that draws upon existing research, the article then presents the findings of a meta analysis undertaken to examine the key patterns in economic assessments of major events based on previous studies reported in the literature. These reviews have been classified into three stages that are ordered chronologically and it can be seen that the range of issues covered, the depth of analysis, and the comprehensiveness of the evaluations increased across these three stages. This article finally summarises the key advances in approach that were made across these stages and proposes a future research agenda.

Economic impacts of visa restrictions on tourism: a case of two events in China

Abstract Increasing attention has been paid to evaluate the impacts of large scale events on tourism demand. For providing policy suggestions, it should consider the economic impact of both events themselves and other factors. This paper evaluates the economic effects of visa restrictions on tourism as a result of the 1989 Tian’an Men Square Incident and the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games by using an innovative combination of econometric and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The results show that both events generated economic losses. The unexpected negative economic impact of the Beijing Olympics seems attributable to visa restrictions. Suggestions for the alleviation of the negative impact of visa regulations are provided.

Impact of Taiwan open policy on Chinese tourist satisfaction

The Taiwan government has imposed a daily visitation quota with strict regulations on Chinese visitor travel modes, length of stay, and visa authorisations since July 2008. This highly controlled scheme was an attempt to maintain service quality over security and political considerations. The purpose of this study is to provide an in-depth analysis regarding the Chinese tourist satisfaction over time under different travel modes. The results indicated that package tour (PT) visitors generally gave higher satisfaction scores than free and independent travel visitors. However, PT visitors demonstrated a decreased level of satisfaction on their tour arrangements of hotels, meals, and itineraries. Addressing safety and environmental issues is the priority task in order to provide quality travel services.

What is the impact of hotels on local economic development? Applying value chain analysis to individual businesses.

The impact of mainstream tourist hotels on destination economies is clearly an important question for public policy-makers wishing to develop robust tourism policy. We adapt the methodology of value chain analysis to measure the local economic impact of a large, single tourism enterprise, to show how to generate commercially realistic data using the example of an analysis of a 1000 room all-inclusive resort in southern Turkey in partnership with TUI UK and Ireland. The data break down package revenues according to their beneficiaries and identifies areas for improvement. We further report and reflect on a 6-month evaluation of a tour operator-hotel partnership to deliver on a set of positive recommendations arising from the date to improve future impact.

Autonomy found: Estimating the local benefit from tourism in SIDS – the Case of Cape Verde

ABSTRACT Tourism is an unusually important economic sector for the Small Island Development States (SIDS). Islands are the second most visited destinations after historic cities. The SIDS tourism is usually dependent on foreign investment and in the form of All-Inclusive (AI) system. Few studies have evaluated the economic impact of tourism on the economic development and/or poverty reduction of a SID using macro level data. And little research has used micro/firm-level data to investigate the impact of tourism on the local economy of SIDS. This paper aims to evaluate the local benefits made from the development of tourism in SIDS, in particular the contribution of AI accommodation using the case of Cape Verde. It makes two main contributions: it makes the first attempt to use microeconomic data at the company level to examine the contribution of tourism in SIDS; it uses empirical data to examine the impacts of AI accommodation on the local economy. A semi-structured hotel questionnaire was applied to 13 accommodation managers and hotel owners, from small guest-houses to large 500 room AI resorts in Sal, Boa Vista, Fogo and Santo Antão. The results indicate that for destinations at an early stage in their development, large-scale AIs may be the most effective way to achieve the growth of tourism to the point that a critical mass is achieved.

Large sporting events and economic growth: evidence from economic consequences of event infrastructure and venues.

One of the most important reasons to hold a large sporting event is the large potential of an economic windfall. Findings of many studies show that holding large sporting events can bring large positive economic benefits. However, most existing literature assessing the economic impacts of mega-events neither properly considers the impact of costs of building event facilities nor captures physical legacies. This research designs a framework to measure both benefits and costs brought by event infrastructure and venues. Then this framework is applied to estimate the economic impact of the 2008 Beijing Olympics using CGE modeling.

The Distributional Effect of Events on Rural and Urban Households in China

International tourism is considered an effective means of economic development. However, the effects of tourism are not evenly distributed between rural and urban households in China. In the wake of significant socioeconomic events, the uneven distribution of the economic effects has huge welfare implications for Chinese households. This study is the first attempt to evaluate the distributional effect of two large, recent, sequential events on China’s rural and urban households. It adopts an innovative approach that combines an econometric model and a two-household computable general equilibrium model. The results show that in terms of welfare, urban households were more adversely affected by the events than rural households. To mitigate the loss of welfare, measures should be taken to continually promote China as a destination and attract tourists after such events occur. Meanwhile, training and education should be made more accessible to rural households to increase their job opportunities.

Residents perceptions of convention centers: a distance decay analysis

Public investment in convention centres represents a relatively common approach to stimulating economic development in many large cities throughout the world. The rationale is that metropolitan authorities can thereby attract business tourists and promote positive (business friendly) images of their locality. While the economic dimension of such spending has received some attention, especially by consultants, there has been little theorising or empirical research which has examined residents’ perceptions of such development. This is in sharp contrast to examinations of resident perceptions of leisure tourism, which has witnessed extensive academic interest. This paper analyses residents’ perceptions of the Busan Exhibition and Convention Centre in South Korea. Distance decay theories, geographic decay and cognitive decay, are used to inform the analysis. The findings indicate that increasing residents’ engagement with, and knowledge of, convention centres is likely to engender positive perceptions of their impacts. It is suggested that urban policy-makers in many parts of the world could learn from this study and should take residents’ perceptions into account when financing and managing convention centres.