Adam Choryński

Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish-Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.

Shock events and flood risk management: a media analysis of the institutional long-term effects of flood events in the Netherlands and Poland

Flood events that have proven to create shock waves in society, which we will call shock events, can open windows of opportunity that allow different actor groups to introduce new ideas. Shock events, however, can also strengthen the status quo. We will take flood events as our object of study. Whereas others focus mainly on the immediate impact and disaster management, we will focus on the long-term impact on and resilience of flood risk governance arrangements. Over the last 25 years, both the Netherlands and Poland have suffered several flood-related events. These triggered strategic and institutional changes, but to different degrees. In a comparative analysis these endogenous processes, i.e., the importance of framing of the flood event, its exploitation by different actor groups, and the extent to which arrangements are actually changing, are examined. In line with previous research, our analysis revealed that shock events test the capacity to resist and bounce back and provide opportunities for adapting and learning. They “open up” institutional arrangements and make them more susceptible to change, increasing the opportunity for adaptation. In this way they can facilitate a shift toward different degrees of resilience, i.e., by adjusting the current strategic approach or by moving toward another strategic approach. The direction of change is influenced by the actors and the frames they introduce, and their ability to increase the resonance of the frame. The persistence of change seems to be influenced by the evolution of the initial management approach, the availability of resources, or the willingness to allocate resources.

Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist) water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM) and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the “distance” between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The extent to which the mitigation strategy is capable of doing so varies across countries, however, and its role in stimulating adaptive governance was found to be strongest in Belgium and England.

Doing more while remaining the same? Flood risk governance in Poland: Flood risk governance in Poland

This paper presents how the approaches to flood risk in Poland have evolved over the last 25 years. The reliance on structural defence and on the state as the key responsible actor was challenged by four triggering events: two large floods; the collapse of the communist system; and the European Union accession. The paper reveals that (1) the radical transformation of the political system did not lead to significant changes in flood risk governance; (2) changes in response to disastrous floods are incremental. Despite the pressures, the Polish flood risk governance preserved its core functional characteristics. Until the 1997 flood, it exhibited the exhaustion mode of institutional dynamics, with issue marginalisation and poor financing, while after this flood, the layering-type mode prevailed, where innovative ideas were accommodated by the established system. The analysis of the Polish flood risk governance dynamics suggests that changes cannot be taken for granted, even facing significant pressures and windows of opportunities.

Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project improved understanding and interpreting changes in high-flow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information, complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was also performed.

Stability and Change of Flood Risk Governance in Poland

In Poland floods are the predominant natural disasters entailing large losses. In the paper it is presented how flood risk management is organized in Poland, and how the approaches to flood risk in the country evolve. The focus is on organisation of flood risk management. Public policies and activities of public administration are analysed. Based on data collected within the EU 7th Framework Project STAR-FLOOD, the description of the Polish Flood Risk Management Strategies and Governance arrangements is provided. Next, the dynamics of the Polish flood risk management strategies and governance arrangements and evaluation of arrangements are presented. The reliance on structural defence is indicated, as a stable component of the floor risk management. Also main factors triggering changes and four main turning points opening windows of opportunity for Polish flood management system are identified: two of them are related to socio-political development and two to flood event. The Polish flood risk management system has experienced changes (i.e. establishment of a new crisis management system), while preserving its core functional characteristics at the same time (reliance on structural defence). Sectorial management with little coordination at the level of ministries renders the flood risk management in Poland being more like bargain and competition than collaborative and consensus-driven type of governance. The Polish Flood Risk Governance Arrangement is characterised as having a strong capacity to buffer shock events, as shown by the major 1997 and 2010 floods. An overall weakness of the Polish Arrangement is the lack of coordination and strategic management. Problems with effective spatial planning and a highly fragmented actors structure both within and between sub-arrangements are the main challenges for the Polish flood risk management.

Projections of Precipitation in the Northern Foothills of the Tatra Mountains

Floods are usually related to extreme and/or long-lasting intense precipitation events. In warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than nowadays. Assessment of these future changes and climate adaptation to future flood risk are very important issues. In this study, four regional climate models and seven global climate models for two climate scenarios A1B and A2 were used to get better description of the range of changes in annual as well as extreme precipitation events. With help of the delta-change method, projections were made based on responses from regional and global climate models, for 11 precipitation stations in the Tatra Mountains in Poland, for which observation data for 1961–1990 were available. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sum of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm. It was found that all RCM and GCM models under examination project an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in two future time windows considered (2061–2090 and 2080–2100).

Correction to: Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991–2015 versus 1961–1990

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. Fig. 3b was incorrect. The correct version of Fig. 3b is given below.