Malgorzata Szwed

Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.

Association between vitamin D concentration and levels of sex hormones in an elderly Polish population with different genotypes of VDR polymorphisms (rs10735810, rs1544410, rs7975232, rs731236)

BACKGROUND Vitamin D co-regulates the synthesis of sex hormones in part by interaction with its nuclear receptor. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is an association of vitamin D concentration vs the level of sex hormones in elderly Polish individuals with different genotypes of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene. MATERIALS AND METHODS Rs10735810, rs1544410, rs7975232, and rs731236 polymorphisms of VDR, the serum sex hormone level, free estrogen index (FEI) and free androgen index (FAI) as well as vitamin D, were evaluated in 766 persons (362 women and 404 men) selected from 5695 Polish population, aged 65-90years from the PolSenior survey. RESULTS We observed that women with GG (rs731236), TT (rs7975232), BB (rs1544410) and FF (rs10735810) genotypes were characterized by a significant correlation between vitamin D vs testosterone concentration and FAI value. We found a significant correlation between testosterone level and FAI vs vitamin D concentration in men with heterozygote AG in the rs731236 polymorphism and in the GG (rs7975232), the BB (rs1544410), and the Ff (rs10735810) genotypes. CONCLUSION In elderly selected Polish population with different genotypes of VDR polymorphisms, a statistically significant relationship between vitamin D concentration vs testosterone level was observed.

A common copy number variation polymorphism in the CNTNAP2 gene: sexual dimorphism in association with healthy aging and disease.

Background: New therapeutic targets are needed to fight aging-related diseases and increase life span. A new female-specific association with diseases and limited survival past 80 years was recently reported for a copy number variation (CNV) in the CNTNAP4 gene from the neurexin superfamily. Objective: We asked whether there are CNVs that are associated with aging phenotypes within other genes from the neurexin superfamily and whether this association is sex specific. Methods: Select CNV polymorphisms were genotyped with proprietary TaqMan qPCR assays. Results: A case/control study, in which a group of 81- to 90-year-old community-dwelling Caucasians with no chronic diseases (case) was compared to a similar control group of 65- to 75-year-olds, revealed a negative association with healthy aging for the ins allele of common esv11910 CNV in the CNTNAP2 gene (n = 388; OR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.14-0.59, p = 0.0004 for males, and OR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.42-1.57, p = 0.625 for females). This male-specific association was validated in a study of an independent group of 76- to 80-year-olds. To look for a corresponding positive association of the allele with aging-related diseases, two case subgroups of 81- to 90-year-olds, one composed of individuals with cognitive impairment and the other with various diseases not directly related to the nervous system, such as cardiovascular diseases, etc., were compared to a healthy control subgroup of the same age. A positive male-specific association was found for both cases (OR = 2.75, p = 0.008 for association with cognitive impairment, and OR = 3.18, p = 0.002 for other diseases combined). Conclusions: A new male-specific association with aging is reported for a CNV in the CNTNAP2 gene. The polymorphism might be useful for diagnosing individual genetic predispositions to healthy aging versus aging complicated by chronic diseases.

Telomere length in elderly Caucasians weakly correlates with blood cell counts.

Background. Age-related decrease in bone marrow erythropoietic capacity is often accompanied by the telomere length shortening in peripheral white blood cells. However, limited and conflicting data hamper the conclusive opinion regarding this relationship. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess an association between telomere length and peripheral blood cell count parameters in the Polish elderly population. Material and Methods. The substudy included 1573 of 4981 subjects aged 65 years or over, participants of the population-based PolSenior study. High-molecular-weight DNA was isolated from blood mononuclear cells. Telomere length (TL) was measured by QRT-PCR as abundance of telomere template versus a single gene copy encoding acidic ribosomal phosphoprotein P0. Results. Only white blood count (WBC) was significantly different in TL tertile subgroups in all subjects (P = 0.02) and in men (P = 0.01), but not in women. Merely in men significant but weak positive correlations were found between TL and WBC (r = 0.11, P < 0.05) and RBC (r = 0.08, P < 0.05). The multiple regression analysis models confirmed a weak, independent contribution of TL to both RBC and WBC. Conclusions. In the elderly, telomere shortening limits hematopoiesis capacity to a very limited extent.

Changes of snow cover in Poland

The present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.

A Common Copy Number Variation (CNV) Polymorphism in the CNTNAP4 Gene: Association with Aging in Females

Background Aging is a biological process strongly determined by genetics. However, only a few single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been reported to be consistently associated with aging. While investigating whether copy number variations (CNVs) could fill this gap, we focused on CNVs that have not been studied in previous SNP-based searches via tagging SNPs. Methods TaqMan qPCR assays were developed to quantify 20 common CNVs in 222 senior American Caucasians in order to reveal possible association with longevity. The replication study was comprised of 1283 community-dwelling senior European Caucasians. Replicated CNVs were further investigated for association with healthy aging and aging-related diseases, while association with longevity was additionally tested in Caenorhabditis elegans. Results In the discovery study of ≥80 vs.<80 years old seniors, a homozygous intronic CNV deletion in the CNTNAP4 gene was inversely associated with survival to the age of 80 (OR=0.51, 95%CI 0.29-0.87, p=0.015 before correction for multiple testing). After stratification by sex, association remained significant in females (OR=0.41, 95%CI 0.21-0.77, p=0.007), but not in males (OR=0.97, 95%CI 0.33-2.79, p=1). The finding was validated in a replication study (OR=0.66, 95%CI 0.48-0.90, p=0.011 for females). CNTNAP4 association with longevity was supported by a marked 25% lifespan change in C. elegans after knocking down the ortholog gene. An inverse association of the CNV del/del variant with female healthy aging was observed (OR=0.39, 95%CI 0.19-0.76, p=0.006). A corresponding positive association with aging-related diseases was revealed for cognitive impairment (OR=2.17, 95%CI 1.11-4.22, p=0.024) and, in independent studies, for Alzheimer’s (OR=4.07, 95%CI 1.17-14.14, p=0.036) and Parkinson’s (OR=1.59, 95%CI 1.03-2.42, p=0.041) diseases. Conclusion This is the first demonstration for association of the CNTNAP4 gene and one of its intronic CNV polymorphisms with aging. Association with particular aging-related diseases awaits replication and independent validation.

Doing more while remaining the same? Flood risk governance in Poland: Flood risk governance in Poland

This paper presents how the approaches to flood risk in Poland have evolved over the last 25 years. The reliance on structural defence and on the state as the key responsible actor was challenged by four triggering events: two large floods; the collapse of the communist system; and the European Union accession. The paper reveals that (1) the radical transformation of the political system did not lead to significant changes in flood risk governance; (2) changes in response to disastrous floods are incremental. Despite the pressures, the Polish flood risk governance preserved its core functional characteristics. Until the 1997 flood, it exhibited the exhaustion mode of institutional dynamics, with issue marginalisation and poor financing, while after this flood, the layering-type mode prevailed, where innovative ideas were accommodated by the established system. The analysis of the Polish flood risk governance dynamics suggests that changes cannot be taken for granted, even facing significant pressures and windows of opportunities.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) I405V polymorphism and cardiovascular disease in eastern European Caucasians - a cross-sectional study.

BackgroundThe cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) polymorphism I405V has been suggested to be involved in longevity and susceptibility to cardiovascular diseases. An enhanced reverse cholesterol transport due to enhanced HDL levels has been hypothesized to be the underlying mechanism. However, clinical trials with HDL-enhancing drugs failed to show beneficial effects. Consequently, it has been postulated that genetic variations enhancing HDL levels are cardioprotective only if they also decrease LDL levels.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted to genotype 1028 healthy blood donors and 1517 clinically well characterized elderly for CETP I405V.ResultsWe could not find any association of this polymorphism with age for both, males or females, in any of these cohorts (P = 0.71 and P = 0.57, respectively, for males and P = 0.55 and P = 0.88, respectively, for females). In addition, no association with cardiovascular diseases could be observed in the elderly cohort (males OR = 1.12 and females OR = 0.88). In the same cohort, the CETP V405V genotype was associated with significantly enhanced HDL levels (P = 0.03), mostly owing to the female sex (P = 0.46 for males, P = 0.02 for females), whereas LDL and triglyceride levels were unchanged (P = 0.62 and P = 0.18, respectively).ConclusionOur data support the recent hypothesis that variations enhancing HDL levels without affecting LDL levels are not associated with the risk for cardiovascular diseases.

Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change

The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June–August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.

Stability and Change of Flood Risk Governance in Poland

In Poland floods are the predominant natural disasters entailing large losses. In the paper it is presented how flood risk management is organized in Poland, and how the approaches to flood risk in the country evolve. The focus is on organisation of flood risk management. Public policies and activities of public administration are analysed. Based on data collected within the EU 7th Framework Project STAR-FLOOD, the description of the Polish Flood Risk Management Strategies and Governance arrangements is provided. Next, the dynamics of the Polish flood risk management strategies and governance arrangements and evaluation of arrangements are presented. The reliance on structural defence is indicated, as a stable component of the floor risk management. Also main factors triggering changes and four main turning points opening windows of opportunity for Polish flood management system are identified: two of them are related to socio-political development and two to flood event. The Polish flood risk management system has experienced changes (i.e. establishment of a new crisis management system), while preserving its core functional characteristics at the same time (reliance on structural defence). Sectorial management with little coordination at the level of ministries renders the flood risk management in Poland being more like bargain and competition than collaborative and consensus-driven type of governance. The Polish Flood Risk Governance Arrangement is characterised as having a strong capacity to buffer shock events, as shown by the major 1997 and 2010 floods. An overall weakness of the Polish Arrangement is the lack of coordination and strategic management. Problems with effective spatial planning and a highly fragmented actors structure both within and between sub-arrangements are the main challenges for the Polish flood risk management.