Adam G. Walke

Physical Infrastructure and Economic Growth in El Paso

Prior research on the impacts of public capital stocks on economic growth has generally used either national macroeconomic or multijurisdictional regional data. This study attempts to contribute to this area of the discipline by using time series data for a single metropolitan economy. To allow for both short-run and long-run effects, an error-correction modeling framework is used for the empirical analysis. Because comprehensive public infrastructure stocks are not published for El Paso, Texas, estimates for those variables are calculated using information regarding annual public capital investment data. Estimation results indicate that physical infrastructure investment may disrupt short-run economic growth but does improve long-run metropolitan economic performance.

Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy

This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.

Freight transportation costs and the thickening of the US–Mexico border

Border regulatory requirements and administrative practices changed subsequent to the September 11, 2001 (9/11), terrorist attacks in the United States. Research in this study examines the manners in which transportation cost data for merchandise imports from Mexico behaved before and after 2001. Evidence is obtained that confirms results earlier tabulated for imports from Canada. Empirical results further indicate that, beyond freight cost changes, growth in the value of imports from Mexico was disrupted by events associated with the aftermath of 9/11.

Credit union loan rate determinants following the 2008 financial crisis

Abstract Previous studies show that a variety of institutional and market variables influence cross-sectional variation in the interest rates that credit unions charge on loans. This study examines the behavior of loan interest rates using nationwide credit union data for the fourth quarter of 2009 in the United States. Results from this sample of more than 6,700 individual credit unions corroborate earlier research indicating that credit union competition tends to suppress loan rates and that economies of scale exist at these financial intermediaries. In contrast to prior studies, however, credit unions with higher net worth ratios are found to charge higher interest rates on loans.

An empirical analysis of Halifax municipal water consumption

Recent empirical research for municipal water consumption has uncovered a variety of interesting growth patterns. This study examines municipal water usage over time for Halifax, Nova Scotia, the thirteenth largest metropolitan economy in Canada. Results from a dynamic error correction modeling approach estimated using quarterly frequency data indicate that municipal water consumption reacts in statistically significant manners to changes in real price, per capita employment levels, and hot weather. Parameter estimates further indicate that any disequilibria in consumption tend to dissipate very quickly in Halifax. As in other regions, the number of utility customers is affected by demographic and labor market variables.

Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States

ABSTRACT Prior research establishes that the spread between long- and short-term bond yields often provides valuable information for predicting business cycle downturns. This study examines the predictive capacity of the yield spread for the United States metropolitan economies situated along the border with Mexico. Because of the location of these urban economies and various economic ties linking them with twin cities across the border, the Mexico yield spread, and the real dollar/peso exchange rate are also employed as potential recession predictors. Results suggest that a flattening of the yield curve for either country tends to increase the probability of recessions in border economies. Furthermore, declines in the real value of the peso, which are typically associated with greater cross-border manufacturing activity, are found to reduce recession likelihoods in the metropolitan economies examined on the north side of the international boundary.

Public transportation demand in a border metropolitan economy

Empirical research for public transport demand has uncovered numerous interesting commonalities across metropolitan economies. This study examines the demand for municipal bus services over time in El Paso, Texas, USA. El Paso is one of the largest metropolitan economies in the USA located directly adjacent to an international boundary with another country. This study not only models the demand for municipal bus services as a function of traditional variables such as price, income and weather, but also includes regressors designed to measure the potential impacts of cross-border economic conditions on El Paso ridership. Results from a Linear Transfer Function (LTF) modelling approach indicate that rider volumes are affected by domestic as well as international economic conditions in this border metropolitan area.

Empirical evidence regarding electricity consumption and urban economic growth

ABSTRACT Links between electricity consumption and economic growth are fairly well documented for national economies, but less so for urban economies. The analysis of such relationships at the sub-national level of aggregation can potentially offer a useful complement to national-level research. This study examines the electricity-growth nexus in El Paso, Texas, while also considering the roles of capital stocks and employment. Testing suggests the presence of cointegrating relationships and a vector error correction model is estimated. Granger causality tests reveal the absence of causality between electricity consumption and personal income, implying that energy conservation efforts will have a neutral effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the results indicate that causality runs from the capital stock and employment to both personal income and electricity consumption. This echoes previous research regarding the importance of accounting for capital and labour factors of production in studies of aggregate electricity utilization and economic performance. The methodology used in this analysis to develop a broad synthetic measure of the urban capital stock, including various categories of public infrastructure, can also be applied to other regions and urban economies.

Downtown parking meter demand in a border metropolitan economy

Prior research establishes that the price of parking in the city centre often impacts the decision to travel downtown and the mode of transportation utilized. Other factors that influence the decision to drive and park downtown have received less attention. This study uses time series data to analyse the demand for metered parking spaces in El Paso, Texas, USA. In addition to meter rates, the determinants of demand include personal income, gasoline prices and the price of a substitute good, parking garage spaces. Because international bridges connect downtown El Paso to neighbouring Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico, the impacts of trans-boundary traffic flows, bridge tolls and other cross-border economic variables are also included as potential determinants of metered parking demand. Results indicate that parking meter rates, other transportation-related costs, and economic conditions in both countries affect meter use.