Thomas M. Fullerton

Currency Movements and International Border Crossings

It is well known that merchandise trade flows respond to exchange rate policy changes over time. This topic, known in the economics literature as the J-curve effect, has been the subject of numerous studies. Exchange rate policies also impact commuter traffic between international metropolitan areas, but there has been much less attention devoted to understanding the effects of currency valuation shifts on border crossings between nations such as the United States and Mexico. While there has been some research conducted with respect to employment impacts on annual crossing volumes, the analysis has been limited to static models. The research at hand attempts to partially fill this gap in the existing literature by examining the response in international commuter flows to exchange rate valuation shifts. In order to gain better appreciation of the temporal aspects of border crossing reactions to policy changes of this nature, all of the analysis is conducted within a dynamic framework.

An Error Correction Analysis of U.S.-Mexico Trade Flows

Abstract Estimation of bilateral trade elasticities is less well documented than is the case for aggregate trade flows. This study estimates bilateral trade equations for Mexico and the United States. The empirical analysis is carried out using an error correction approach that allows imports and exports to adjust over time to changes in the independent variables that affect the demand for them. Results obtained indicate that imports and exports between the two neighbors react heterogeneously to variations in domestic prices, foreign prices, and currency values. Lag structures between the two trade equations also differ from each other.

Recent trends in border economics

Abstract Greater cross-border integration is reflected in U.S.-Mexico border-related economic research. Some of the areas in which substantial work is being done include population, business cycle transmission, exchange rates, industrial development, labor markets, and natural resources. This paper examines research undertaken in these fields.

Assessing The Impacts Of Labor Market And Deterrence Variables On Crime Rates In Mexico

Many studies examine the relationship between crime rates and various economic and/or sociodemographic variables in high income countries, but similar efforts for middle and low income countries are less common. Utilizing an 8‐year panel data sample for all 32 states in Mexico, this study assesses the impact of Mexican labor market and deterrence variables on various Mexican crime rates. The principal results indicate that: (1) State gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has ambiguous effect on crime rates under different conditions. Both wages and unemployment rates are negatively linked with crime rates. (2) Although the Mexican judicial and public security systems are widely believed to be ineffective, increased federal police forces and incarceration rates are associated with lower crime rates, but higher public security expenditure per capita is associated with higher crime rates. (3) The impacts from labor market and deterrence variables presented in (1) and (2) continue to hold under the Fox administration as well as for non‐border states. Their respective impacts diminish, however, under the Calderon administration as well as for border states because of the small number of observations. Overall, the results indicate that increasing average wages, federal police forces, and incarceration rates would have significant impacts on reducing crime rates in Mexican states.

Exchange rate premia and discounts for retail purchases using Mexican pesos in El Paso, Texas

Abstract This paper studies the exchange rates at which Mexican pesos are accepted for retail purchases in El Paso, Texas. A stratified random sample of 586 participating firms is surveyed to examine two aspects of reverse dollarization in the El Paso/Ciudad Juárez border region. The first is to determine the percentage of retail businesses in El Paso that accept foreign currency in the form of Mexican pesos. The results suggest that just over 13.1% (77/586) of all retail firms in this market accept pesos, which on average, comprise 4.35% of total sales for those firms. The second is to calculate the effective exchange rate at which firms accept Mexican pesos. We find that 68.5% of firms accepting the peso do so at a premium. We discern these two aspects further utilizing various multivariate analyses.

Gasoline price predictability in a border metropolitan economy

This study examines the predictability of local retail gasoline prices in the El Paso metropolitan economy. Given its location on the border with Mexico, the potential influence of cross-border economic variables on gasoline prices in El Paso is taken into account. The study uses monthly frequency time series data from 2001 to 2013. Because historical consumption data are not available, the error correction econometric model employs a reduced form equation in which gasoline prices are functionally dependent on several explanatory variables. Out-of-sample price simulations are compared against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results obtained indicate that the econometric approach performs fairly well relative to both benchmarks.

Credit union loan rate determinants following the 2008 financial crisis

Abstract Previous studies show that a variety of institutional and market variables influence cross-sectional variation in the interest rates that credit unions charge on loans. This study examines the behavior of loan interest rates using nationwide credit union data for the fourth quarter of 2009 in the United States. Results from this sample of more than 6,700 individual credit unions corroborate earlier research indicating that credit union competition tends to suppress loan rates and that economies of scale exist at these financial intermediaries. In contrast to prior studies, however, credit unions with higher net worth ratios are found to charge higher interest rates on loans.

An empirical analysis of Halifax municipal water consumption

Recent empirical research for municipal water consumption has uncovered a variety of interesting growth patterns. This study examines municipal water usage over time for Halifax, Nova Scotia, the thirteenth largest metropolitan economy in Canada. Results from a dynamic error correction modeling approach estimated using quarterly frequency data indicate that municipal water consumption reacts in statistically significant manners to changes in real price, per capita employment levels, and hot weather. Parameter estimates further indicate that any disequilibria in consumption tend to dissipate very quickly in Halifax. As in other regions, the number of utility customers is affected by demographic and labor market variables.

Major League Baseball 2015, What a Difference a Year Makes

ABSTRACT An econometric analysis of the 2015 Major League Baseball season is conducted with respect to regular season victories. Results obtained confirm some, but not all, results reported in prior research. The importance of solid team pitching and offense is underscored. Similar to 2014, team defence did not vary sufficiently to play a statistically significant role in team victory differences. Outcomes for total payrolls and salary disparities differ substantially from prior seasons. History may serve as a guide to what occurs on the field, but it does not always replicate the patterns of bygone years. Parameter heterogeneity is substantial and argues against pooling sample data from season to season. From a strict econometric perspective, the results obtained indicate that panel methods should not be utilized to analyse wins data for Major League Baseball. Ultimately, 2015 represents another departure from the standard baseball norm.

Causality patterns for Brent, WTI, and Argus oil prices

ABSTRACT Causality patterns are analysed for daily Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Argus Sour Crude Index (Argus) oil prices, Argus is the reference price for exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Nonparametric Granger causality testing uncovers bi-directional causal links between Brent and WTI prices at multiple lags. Unidirectional causality from both Brent to Argus and WTI to Argus is also documented. If the current Saudi Arabia attempt to increase market share is successful, variations in Argus prices may start preceding movements in Brent and WTI, also.