Adan L. Martinez-Cruz

The Impact of Emissions-Based Taxes on the Retirement of Used and Inefficient Vehicles: The Case of Switzerland

Many countries have adopted policies designed to reduce CO2 emissions from road vehicles. Taxes linked to the CO2 emissions rate or the fuel economy of a vehicle (which is inversely related to its CO2 emissions rate) are examples of such policies. These taxes are usually imposed on new vehicles, and previous evaluations have estimated the increases in the shares or sales of new and fuel-efficient vehicles associated with such taxes. In contrast, we ask whether taxes on new cars that penalize high emitters induce changes in the retirement of used and inefficient vehicles. We exploit natural experiment conditions in Switzerland to analyze the impact of two different “bonus”/“malus” schemes implemented at the cantonal level. In both schemes, the bonus rewards new efficient vehicles. The malus is retroactive in canton Obwalden, in the sense that it is charged on both new and existing high-emitting cars, but it is only applied prospectively to new cars in Geneva. We use a difference-in-difference design within a survival analysis setting. We find that a bonus/malus accelerates the retirement of existing high-emitting vehicles in Obwalden, shortening the expected lifetime of the three most popular make-models by 7 to 11 months. The effect is the opposite in Geneva, where we estimate that the expected lifetime of these three popular models is extended by 5 to 8 months. These findings have important implications about the desirability of bonus/malus schemes and on their design, as well as on old car scrappage programs.

A Note on the Different Interpretation of the Correlation Parameters in the Bivariate Probit and the Recursive Bivariate Probit

This note makes the point that, if a Bivariate Probit (BP) model is estimated on data arising from a Recursive Bivariate Probit (RBP) process, the resulting BP correlation parameter is a weighted average of the RBP correlation parameter and the parameter associated to the endogenous binary variable. Two corollaries follow this proposition: i) a zero correlation parameter in a BP model, usually interpreted as evidence of independence between the binary variables under study, may actually mask the presence of a RBP process; and ii) the interpretation of the correlation parameter in the RBP is not the same as in the BP — i.e. the RBP correlation parameter does not necessarily reflect the correlation between the binary variables under study.

Narrowing the energy efficiency gap: The impact of educational programs, online support tools and energy-related investment literacy

There is evidence that many individuals make sub-optimal investment decisions when the benefits and costs associated with that decision are distributed over time. One example is the decision to adopt new electrical appliances, with the benefits of choosing a more energy efficient device materializing only in the future. This paper analyses the impact of the level of an individual’s energy-related investment literacy on the adoption of energy-efficient appliances. Moreover, the empirical analysis explores the impact of decision support tools such as educational slides on the probability that individuals identify the appliance with the lowest lifetime cost, which is ideally also the most energy-efficient appliance. To test the influence of these decision support tools, we developed an online randomized controlled trial and implemented it on two independently chosen samples of the Swiss population. One treatment offers a short education program on how to calculate the lifetime cost of an appliance – via a set of information slides. The second intervention provides access to an online calculator that supports the investment decision-making of the individual. Results across the two samples are encouraging. We find that i) pre-treatment energy and investment literacy positively impact on the probability of identifying the appliance with the lowest lifetime cost; ii) the reinforcement of energy-related investment literacy increases the rate at which individuals identify the appliance with the lowest lifetime cost; and iii) while both interventions are effective in increasing the chances that an appliance with the lower lifetime cost is chosen, the online calculator turned out to be more effective than the educational program. Public policy implications are discussed.

Handling Excess Zeros in Count Models for Recreation Demand Analysis Without Apology

Hurdle and zero-inflated models are the two foremost methods used to deal with excess zeros. However, their reliance on the nonparticipation assumption is a drawback when applied to recreation demand analysis because there is not a theoretical framework convincingly explaining presence of non-participants. This paper discusses how latent class count models represent a theoretically consistent alternative to handle excess zeros. The theoretical model behind a latent class model does not require the non-participation assumption. Instead, excess zeros is explained as the accumulation of Corner solutions from individuals belonging to different classes.