Adelamar Alcantara

An explanatory analysis of driver injury severity in rear-end crashes using a decision table/Naïve Bayes (DTNB) hybrid classifier

Rear-end crashes are a major type of traffic crashes in the U.S. Of practical necessity is a comprehensive examination of its mechanism that results in injuries and fatalities. Decision table (DT) and Naïve Bayes (NB) methods have both been used widely but separately for solving classification problems in multiple areas except for traffic safety research. Based on a two-year rear-end crash dataset, this paper applies a decision table/Naïve Bayes (DTNB) hybrid classifier to select the deterministic attributes and predict driver injury outcomes in rear-end crashes. The test results show that the hybrid classifier performs reasonably well, which was indicated by several performance evaluation measurements, such as accuracy, F-measure, ROC, and AUC. Fifteen significant attributes were found to be significant in predicting driver injury severities, including weather, lighting conditions, road geometry characteristics, driver behavior information, etc. The extracted decision rules demonstrate that heavy vehicle involvement, a comfortable traffic environment, inferior lighting conditions, two-lane rural roadways, vehicle disabled damage, and two-vehicle crashes would increase the likelihood of drivers sustaining fatal injuries. The research limitations on data size, data structure, and result presentation are also summarized. The applied methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to alleviate rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance.

Exploratory multinomial logit model–based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes

ABSTRACT Objective: Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle–infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Methods: Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity models generality. Results: The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. Conclusions: The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

A stochastic version of the brass PF ratio adjustment of age-specific fertility schedules.

Estimates of age-specific fertility rates based on survey data are known to suffer down-bias associated with incomplete reporting. Previously, William Brass (1964, 1965, 1968) proposed a series of adjustments of such data to reflect more appropriate levels of fertility through comparison with data on children-ever-born by age, a measure of cohort-specific cumulative fertility. His now widely-used Parity/Fertility or PF ratio method makes a number of strong assumptions, which have been the focus of an extended discussion in the literature on indirect estimation. However, while it is clear that the measures used in making adjusted age-specific fertility estimates with this method are captured with statistical uncertainty, little discussion of the nature of this uncertainty around PF-ratio based estimates of fertility has been entertained in the literature. Since both age-specific risk of childbearing and cumulative parity (children ever born) are measured with statistical uncertainty, an unknown credibility interval must surround every PF ratio-based estimate. Using the standard approach, this is unknown, limiting the ability to make statistical comparisons of fertility between groups or to understand stochasticity in population dynamics. This paper makes use of approaches applied to similar problems in engineering, the natural sciences, and decision analysis—often discussed under the title of uncertainty analysis or stochastic modeling—to characterize this uncertainty and to present a new method for making PF ratio-based fertility estimates with 95 percent uncertainty intervals. The implications for demographic analysis, between-group comparisons of fertility, and the field of statistical demography are explored.

Sub-County Population Estimates Using Administrative Records: A Municipal-Level Case Study in New Mexico

This chapter explores the possibility of using administrative records to produce sub-county, municipal-level population estimates. Geocoding of vital records data is combined with IRS summary statistics on filers and dependents at the zip-code level to produce two sets of vintage 2010 Component 1 estimates for all 103 municipalities within the State of New Mexico; one made with no remediation for incomplete geocoding and the other remediated for observed biases in geocoding experiments conducted at the zip-code level. These estimates are compared against the results of the 2010 Census using an ex-post-facto evaluation strategy and standard measures of error and bias. The performance of the non-remediated and remediated estimates are compared to a null model of holding the 2000 Census constant and to a vintage 2010 set of estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau using their distributive housing unit method (D-HUM). The results suggest that spatial remediation does little to improve accuracy at the municipal level, and although both sets of component estimates represented significant improvements over the Census 2000 constant estimates, neither out-performed the (D-HUM) procedure, which was considerably more accurate and less biased–especially within the most rapidlygrowing municipalities. While the production of the component method-based estimates might permit the estimation of sub-county components of change, the results of this research suggest that this potential improvement would come at the cost of overall accuracy.

Geography is Destiny: Spatial Correlations in Poverty and Educational Attainment in a New Mexico School District

New Mexico’s urban communities mirror a national trend of resegregation clustered by socioeconomic status and race. Previous research suggests a clear relationship between such clustering and measures of both poverty and educational attainment. This research explores the effect of spatially concentrated poverty on academic achievement in a New Mexico School District, utilizing spatial regression to test hypotheses concerning neighborhood clustering effects on school performance. Proficiency scores for reading, math, and science were collected for the 2004–2006 school years and linked to data on poverty from the 2005–2009 American Community Survey as well as from National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reporting of the proportion of students receiving free or reduced lunch. Next, following the elementary school students in a pseudo-cohort fashion, it is seen that geography plays an important role on how, on the average, the probability of successful high school graduation depends on high-, middle-, and elementary-school parameters as well as community variables. The implications of the results for understanding relationships between poverty and academic achievement, and the geographic clustering of these patterns, are reviewed.

Microdemographic Determinants of Population Recovery among the Northern Aché

ABSTRACT A pattern of population crash and rapid recovery is a common feature of the pacification and settlement experience of the indigenous peoples of tropical South America. Despite the obvious importance of these events to the demographic and anthropological sciences as a whole, as well as their significant practical implications, little is known about the microdemographic determinants of these paired phenomena. Using methods of asymptotic and stochastic demographic analysis, we reconstructed the microdemographic drivers of this history among one indigenous population: the Northern Aché of eastern Paraguay. This article explores the implications of these relationships for understanding the overall demographic turnaround observed within similar groups, as well as for the future trajectory of the Northern Aché in particular.

An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics

Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered.