Adhistya Erna Permanasari

SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA) implementation on time series to forecast the number of Malaria incidence

The usefulness of forecasting method in predicting the number of disease incidence is important. It motivates development of a system that can predict the future number of disease occurrences. Fluctuation analysis of forecasting result can be used to support the making of policy from the stake holder. This paper analyses and presents the use of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method for developing a forecasting model that able to support and provide prediction number of diasease incidence in human. The dataset for model development was collected from time series data of Malaria occurrences in United States obtained from a study published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It resulted SARIMA (0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 as the selected model. The model achieved 21,6% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It indicated the capability of final model to closely represent and made prediction based on the Malaria historical dataset.

Comparative study on data mining classification methods for cervical cancer prediction using pap smear results

The number of woman with cervical cancer in Indonesia is getting higher. Indonesia becomes the country with the highest number of women with cervical cancer in the world. Cervical cancer became the highest cause of cancer deaths in women globally. There has been a lot of research using data mining techniques with variety of different data mining models that can be used for analyzing cervical cancer. In this research, data that be used were obtained from the medical records of the Pap smear test results. There are 38 symptoms and 7 classes. Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Random Forest Tree was used to evaluate the performance of the classifier. The performance matric that used in this study are accuracy, recall, precision, and ROC curve. Based on the performance matric, Random Forest Tree is the best classifier among other classifiers to classify Pap smear results.

Toward development of automated plasmodium detection for Malaria diagnosis in thin blood smear image: An overview

This paper illustrates a comprehensive review about malaria identification method on thin blood smear, including conventional identification by expert and computer-aided identification. Even though effective way to overcome the malaria has been discovered, in fact these cases is still growing among developed country and murdering 1 million people annually; 90% of them are children from Africa. There exist clinical, laboratorial, and molecular method in diagnosing malaria, however the whole process mostly committed conventionally using microscope and expertise. Nowadays, with the presence of Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) — Image Processing, plasmodium identification of malaria can be performed rapidly, affordable, and more accurate.

Improvement in learning coordinate systems topic for Electrical Engineering students using Interactive Multimedia

Coordinate system is a basic topic in engineering students in our department. Some advance subjects use this topic as the basic knowledge for analysis both electrical and information technology study programs, such as electromagnetism and computer vision. Main function of them is to represent such a position of a matter in space. In delivering this topic, some problems came up when it was presented by conventional method of teaching, such as by explaining it on a whiteboard or using presentation slides. Text font was limited related to the size of classroom. Steps of drawing the coordinate systems were not clear when it was only explained in one slide without any animations. By developing this topic in interactive multimedia, the teaching method can be improved using one of existing e-learning system in our university, called eLisa, which is not limited by time, distance, and also can overcome those mentioned problems due to this simple and clear visualization of Cartesian, Cylindrical, and Spherical Coordinate Systems. This research is conducted to investigate the benefit of the developed multimedia to improve knowledge of students about the topic. This investigation used t-test to find the significance improvement of learning the topics using this interactive multimedia by doing a hands on quiz and walkthru method to find the multimedia in eLisa. The result showed that by learning it in 15 minutes, the knowledge of students was improved based on data scores of quiz as a measurement instruments.

Cosine similarity to determine similarity measure: Study case in online essay assessment

Development of technology in educational field brings the easier ways through the variety of facilitation for learning process, sharing files, giving assignment and assessment. Automated Essay Scoring (AES) is one of the development systems for determining a score automatically from text document source to facilitate the correction and scoring by utilizing applications that run on the computer. AES process is used to help the lecturers to score efficiently and effectively. Besides it can reduce the subjectivity scoring problem. However, implementation of AES depends on many factors and cases, such as language and mechanism of scoring process especially for essay scoring. A number of methods implemented for weighting the terms from document and reaching the solutions for handling comparative level between documents answer and experts document still defined. In this research, we implemented the weighting of Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) method and Cosine Similarity with the measuring degree concept of similarity terms in a document. Tests carried out on a number of Indonesian text-based documents that have gone through the stage of pre-processing for data extraction purposes. This process results is in a ranking of the document weight that have closesness match level with experts document.

The performance of GM (1,1) and ARIMA for forecasting of foreign tourists visit to Indonesia

Forecasting can be used for helping the decision-makers to determine the next business strategy to improve the quality of Indonesia tourism such as the improvement of the accommodation facility like transportation and lodging, public services, and promotion to introduce Indonesia tourism objects. This research compared the forecasting performance between GM (1,1) and ARIMA models to determine the best method to forecast the number of foreign tourists visit to Indonesia by using limited data. The data used is the national data of foreign tourists arrival in the airport entrance obtained from the BPS Indonesia in the period of 2002 to 2014. From the result of the forecasting accuracy based on RMSE and MAPE showed that GM (1,1) is smaller than of the ARIMA. It indicates that the performance of GM (1,1) is better than ARIMA to forecast the number of foreign tourists visit. However, it can be concluded that both of the models are able to forecast properly because both of them produce MAPE less than 10%.

Automated determination of Plasmodium region of interest on thin blood smear images

The region of interest (RoI) has the most useful information in image processing since the targeted objects are covered in this area. By determining the precise position of RoI, a computer-based identification will be able to work more efficiently, to give a better contribution in system and to eliminate objects that may intrude overall process. In malaria disease, the existence of Plasmodium can be observed from patients microscopic thin blood smear images. Having utilised the computer aided detection based on image processing, malaria disease can be detected earlier and more objective in order to support the final decision of paramedics. This study proposes a novel method to automatically determine the region of interest (RoI) on thin blood smear images for facilitating the process of Plasmodium parasite detection. The approach includes Otsu thresholding method, morphological operation and binary large object (BLOB) analysis. Evaluation results on 24 thin blood smear images show that the proposed method achieves the sensitivity and PPV rates of 87.5% and 75.7%, respectively. These successful results in automatically determine the RoI which contains the Plasmodium parasite indicate that the proposed method has a potential to be implemented in the development of a computer aided malaria detection system.

Fuzzy Logic Tsukamoto for SARIMAOn Automation of Bandwidth Allocation

The wireless network is used in different fields to enhance information transfer between remote areas. In the education area, it can support knowledge transfer among academic member including lecturers, students, and staffs. In order to achieve this purpose, the wireless network is supposed to be well managed to accommodate all users. Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology UGM sets wireless network for its daily campus activity manually and monitor data traffic at a time then share it to the user. Thus, it makes bandwidth sharing becomes less effective. This study, build a dynamic bandwidth allocation management system which automatically determines bandwidth allocation based on the prediction of future bandwidth using by implementing Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) with the addition of outlier detection since the result more accurate. Moreover, the determination of fixed bandwidth allocation was done using Fuzzy Logic with Tsukamoto Inference Method. The results demonstrate that bandwidth allocations can be classified into 3 fuzzy classes from quantitative forecasting results. Furthermore, manual and automatic bandwidth allocation was compared. The result on manual allocation MAPE was 70,76% with average false positive value 56 MB, compared to dynamic allocation using Fuzzy Logic and SARIMA which has MAPE 38,9% and average false positive value around 13,84 MB. In conclusion, the dynamic allocation was more effective in bandwidth allocation than manual allocation.

Automatic short answer scoring using words overlapping methods

Assessment is one of the most important things in studying. In this digital era, there are a lot of systems that have developed to handle assessment automatically. One of the system assessments that were developed by researcher is automatic scoring for essay. There are two types of essay; long and short answer essays. This paper is focused on the development of automatic short answer scoring. Some automatic scoring systems used on long answer have shown optimal results in giving a score on the students answer. Automatic long answer systems use the information retrieval method to measure similarity between students answer and references answer. Automatic short answer scoring does not give the best result yet. Short answer has a limited word in each answer. Each answer consists of one phrase to three sentences. Assessment of the short description that has limited number of words requires special handling, especially in the weighting process. With the limitations of the process of weighting the word, it cann...

Data service orchestration for law enforcement and open criminal justice data interoperability (National Crime Information Center, Indonesian National Police case studies)

Information communication and technology (ICT) adoption in law enforcement services has been transformative and shifted from the system application oriented to the open data oriented, where information can be more easily exchanged among law enforcement organizations. Therefore, interoperability is the essential requirement for an open data service provision that progresses towards higher levels of integration among government levels and branches to enhance the quality of public services, transparency, accountability, cost-effective service provision and government operation, optimization of public policies for better outcomes and integrated government processes. In this paper, we proposed a proof of concept of data service orchestration for law enforcement that aims to integrate internal and external agencies of the criminal justice information system. Through this system, the law enforcement agencies could provide an exchange services environment with greater ease and deliver public value through open criminal justice data initiatives to increase prestige as well as improving institutional transparency and accountability.