Adib Kanafani

Generation, Analysis, and Evaluation of Transportation System Alternatives

The system alternatives contain the substance of the entire National Transportation Plan. At this point in the planning process all special studies and all information and analysis generated as part of the national transportation planning program are brought together to formulate and evaluate a range of alternative strategies. The National Plan will represent a coherent attempt to support and stimulate in a rational and positive manner the growth of the country. To accomplish this, the Plan alternatives must jointly consider the economic, social, political, and environmental goals of the country. The system alternatives, therefore, shall consist of physical infrastructure, public sector management and operation strategies, and financing components all mutually generated and analyzed in concert.

Future Modal Options

The improvement of the present road-oriented system is not the only means to meet the future nationwide demand in transportation services. Several modal options that are either new or presently underdeveloped (e.g. cargo railroad, mixed passenger—cargo railroad, inland and coastal waterways, special roads for truck) may be more beneficial for the country and should also be considered.

Forecast of Interzonal Movements on the Road Network

The estimation of future demand for freight and passenger transportation is a major step toward identifying future transportation deficiencies and developing alternative strategies to eliminate those deficiencies. The process developed to identify deficiencies uses the highway system as the ‘reference’ system and treats other modes as substitutes for highway travel. Therefore it is essential that future movements be forecast first on the road network. Possible modal splits with railroad, inland waterways, and other modes will be considered later in the planning process.

Institutional and Financial Analysis

The development of an effective and implementable national transportation plan requires an understanding and assessment of institutional and financial factors. The hopes for developing a plan that is responsive to the real needs and expectations of a country, and is therefore implementable, rest heavily upon a recognition of the political, institutional, and financial constraints and forces operating in the transportation sector. Successful operation of the transportation system is dependent upon effective management and coordination. Equitable and efficient financing leads to higher productivity and a fair distribution of costs and benefits. For these reasons, the institutional and financial analyses constitute a major contribution to the development and ongoing review of the National Transportation Plan.

Definition of Policies, Objectives, and Criteria

The development of a national transportation plan represents a series of value judgments, evaluations, and choices. The diagnosis, constituting a preliminary identification and analysis of issues and problems, epitomizes the entire planning program. It is based on a set of implicit values and criteria that are used to decide which phenomena and situations are most important and critical.

Identification of Future Transportation Deficiencies

The determination of future transportation deficiencies, both geographically and temporally, is a critical step of the planning process. In fact, most of the subsequent planning efforts will focus on the generation and evaluation of alternative solutions to those transportation problems identified in this phase.

Operational and Capital Improvements

Since the development of major projects such as railroad systems or new ports and roads requires large initial capital investment and therefore involves a large risk, it is essential that every effort be made to maximize the use of existing transport facilities. This objective may be achieved either through operational improvements that improve the cost efficiency of the existing transportation facilities by promoting better operations, maintenance, and managerial practices or through capital improvements that provide for a progressive upgrading of existing facilities to match the expected increase in traffic volume.

Generation, Analysis, and Evaluation of Critical Corridor Alternatives

As a means for facilitating and streamlining the generation of systemwide transportation alternatives, a preliminary set of corridor-specific alternatives will be developed and analyzed. The corridor alternatives will be studied only where serious problems and deficiencies are expected, in what we refer to as ‘critical’ corridors. The corridors will then be ranked according to their regional and national importance so as to instill a sense of priority to the study of the myriad of transportation alternatives.

NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

1. Introduction.- 2. Inventory.- 3. Diagnosis.- 4. Definition of policies, objectives, and criteria.- 5. Institutional and financial analysis.- 6. Supply analysis.- 7. Demand analysis.- 8. Operational and capital improvements.- 9. Forecast of interzonal movements on the road network.- 10. Future modal options.- 11. Identification of future transportation deficiencies.- 12. Generation, analysis, and evaluation of critical corridor alternatives.- 13. Generation, analysis, and evaluation of transportation system alternatives.- Appendices.- 1. Final outputs of the national plan.- 2. Timing and scheduling of work tasks.- 3. Air transport study.- 4. Procedures for a continuing planning process (CPP).- 5. Bibliography.