Aditi Sheshadri

Seasonal Variability of the Polar Stratospheric Vortex in an Idealized AGCM with Varying Tropospheric Wave Forcing

AbstractThe seasonal variability of the polar stratospheric vortex is studied in a simplified AGCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations in equilibrium temperature are imposed in the stratosphere only, enabling the study of stratosphere–troposphere coupling on seasonal time scales, without the complication of an internal tropospheric seasonal cycle. The model is forced with different shapes and amplitudes of simple bottom topography, resulting in a range of stratospheric climates. The effect of these different kinds of topography on the seasonal variability of the strength of the polar vortex, the average timing and variability in timing of the final breakup of the vortex (final warming events), the conditions of occurrence and frequency of midwinter warming events, and the impact of the stratospheric seasonal cycle on the troposphere are explored. The inclusion of wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies results in very different stratospheric seasonal variabili...

Can the Delay in Antarctic Polar Vortex Breakup Explain Recent Trends in Surface Westerlies

AbstractThe authors test the hypothesis that recent observed trends in surface westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere are directly consequent on observed trends in the timing of stratospheric final warming events. The analysis begins by verifying that final warming events have an impact on tropospheric circulation in a simplified GCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations are imposed in the stratosphere only. The model produces qualitatively realistic final warming events whose influence extends down to the surface, much like what has been reported in observational analyses. The authors then go on to study observed trends in surface westerlies composited with respect to the date of final warming events. If the considered hypothesis were correct, these trends would appear to be much weaker when composited with respect to the date of the final warming events. The authors find that this is not the case, and accordingly they conclude that the observed surface changes can...

The Relationship between Age of Air and the Diabatic Circulation of the Stratosphere

AbstractThe strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation is difficult to estimate using observations. Trends in the age of stratospheric air, deduced from observations of transient tracers, have been used to identify trends in the circulation, but there are ambiguities in the relationship between age and the strength of the circulation. This paper presents a steady-state theory and a time-dependent extension to relate age of air directly to the diabatic circulation of the stratosphere. In steady state, it is the difference between the age of upwelling and downwelling air through an isentrope and not the absolute value of age that is a measure of the strength of the diabatic circulation through that isentrope. For the time-varying case, expressions for other terms that contribute to the age budget are derived. An idealized atmospheric general circulation model with and without a seasonal cycle is used to test the time-dependent theory and to find that these additional terms are small upon annual averaging. Th...

A perspective on climate model hierarchies

To understand Earths climate, climate modelers employ a hierarchy of climate models spanning a wide spectrum of complexity and comprehensiveness. This essay, inspired by the World Climate Research Programmes recent “Model Hierarchies Workshop,” attempts to survey and synthesize some of the current thinking on climate model hierarchies, especially as presented at the workshop. We give a few formal descriptions of the hierarchy and survey the various ways it is used to generate, test, and confirm hypotheses. We also discuss some of the pitfalls of contemporary climate modeling, and how the “elegance” advocated for by Held (2005) has (and has not) been used to address them. We conclude with a survey of current activity in hierarchical modeling, and offer suggestions for its continued fruitful development.

Observed Changes in the Southern Hemispheric Circulation in May

AbstractMuch research has focused on trends in the Southern Hemispheric circulation in austral summer (December–February) in the troposphere and stratosphere, whereas changes in other seasons have received less attention. Here the seasonality and structure of observed changes in tropospheric and stratospheric winds, temperature, and ozone over the Southern Hemisphere are examined. It is found that statistically significant trends similar to those of the Antarctic summer season are also observed since 1979 in austral fall, particularly May, and are strongest over the Pacific sector of the hemisphere. Evidence is provided for a significant shift in the position of the jet in May over the Pacific, and it is shown that the strengthening and shifting of the jet has rendered the latitudinal distribution of upper-tropospheric zonal wind more bimodal. The Antarctic ozone hole has cooled the lower stratosphere and strengthened the polar vortex. While the mechanism and timing are not fully understood, the ozone hol...

Sensitivity of the surface responses of an idealized AGCM to the timing of imposed ozone depletion-like polar stratospheric cooling

An idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used to investigate the sensitivity of model responses to the timing of imposed polar stratospheric cooling, intended to mimic the radiative effects of ozone depletion. The model exhibits circulation responses to springtime cooling that qualitatively match both observations and the responses of comprehensive chemistry climate models. The models surface response is sensitive to the timing of the cooling, with the onset becoming delayed with later cooling, but with the termination occurring at similar times, suggesting that the meteorology plays an important role. The models responses do not match the latitudinal structure of the leading annular mode; rather, the response described by the second empirical orthogonal function plays a substantial role, in addition to the first. It is suggested that the imposed cooling, when it delays the final warming, results in an extended period of lower stratospheric variability, which could be an important factor in producing realistic surface responses.

Propagating Annular Modes: Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Principal Oscillation Patterns, and Time Scales

AbstractThe two leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of zonal-mean zonal wind describe north–south fluctuations, and intensification and narrowing, respectively, of the midlatitude jet. Under certain circumstances, these two leading EOFs cannot be regarded as independent but are in fact manifestations of a single, coupled, underlying mode of the dynamical system describing the evolution in time of zonal wind anomalies. The true modes are revealed by the principal oscillation patterns (POPs). The leading mode and its associated eigenvalue are complex, its structure involves at least two EOFs, and it describes poleward (or equatorward) propagation of zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies. In this propagating regime, the principal component (PC) time series associated with the two leading EOFs decay nonexponentially, and the response of the system to external forcing in a given EOF does not depend solely on the PC decorrelation time nor on the projection of the forcing onto that EOF. These considerations ...

Orography and the Boreal Winter Stratosphere: The Importance of the Mongolian Mountains

The impact of mountains on stratospheric circulation is explored using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The “Mongolian mountains” decrease the boreal winter stratospheric jet strength by ∼1/3 and increase the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings from 0.08 year−1 to the observed 0.60 year−1. These changes are twice the magnitude of the impacts of the Tibetan plateau and Himalayas. Consistent with the decrease in the zonal jet, there is enhanced Eliassen-Palm flux convergence; this is predominantly from changes in wave propagation pathways through changes to the upper troposphere circulation, not from an increased amplitude of planetary waves reaching the stratosphere. The Mongolian mountains have the greater impact on upper tropospheric circulation due to their meridional location. The Rocky Mountains have no significant impact on the stratospheric jet. Changes in wave propagation in response to the Mongolian mountains are similar to those associated with major sudden stratospheric warming events in observations. Plain Language Summary The stratosphere is a layer of the atmosphere far from the Earth’s surface (10–50 km above the surface), but changes in stratospheric circulation, particularly events known as sudden stratospheric warmings, affect the weather and climate at the surface. By flattening individual mountain regions in a climate model that extends from the Earth’s surface far past the stratosphere, we study the effects of mountains on stratospheric circulation and the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events. We find that the presence of the Mongolian mountains weakens the stratospheric jet by a third of its strength and creates 6 times more warming events as there would be without these mountains. The impact of the Mongolian mountains is about twice as large as the impact of the larger and more expansive Tibetan plateau and Himalaya. Mountains are a source of planetary-scale atmospheric waves that propagate upward into the stratosphere; we find that the mountain effect on the stratosphere is largely because the mountains alter the pathway that all waves take as they propagate toward the stratosphere, through the influence the mountains have on circulation lower down in the atmosphere. We find similar anomalous wave propagation during sudden warming events in the model and observations.

The vertical structure of annular modes

AbstractStratosphere–troposphere interactions are conventionally characterized using the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of fields such as zonal-mean zonal wind. Perpetual-winter integrat...

Modeling Traveling Waves Using Mode Superposition

Analysis of the data from two Vortex-Induced Vibration (VIV) experiments conducted in the Gulf Stream on a 500-foot-long, 1.43 inches diameter, flexible, tension dominated riser model revealed that the response is predominantly characterized by the presence of traveling waves. It was also observed that the location of the VIV excitation region (power-in) affects the characteristics of the response. The conventional method of modeling the excitation force as a standing wave was found inadequate to predict the location of the peak measured response accurately, especially in the cases where the excitation region is close to a boundary (the ends of the riser model). A modified excitation force model consisting of a combination of standing and traveling wave excitation regions is demonstrated to predict the location of the peak response more accurately. This work presents the idea of modifying the VIV excitation model to include traveling wave characteristics and using mode superposition method for computing the response to this modified force. Examples of the implementation of this method are shown for the two distinct cases of the location of the power-in region — the power-in region adjacent to the boundary and the power-in region away from the boundary. Depending on the location of the power-in region, different proportions of standing and traveling wave excitations are used to yield predicted responses that match the measured response characteristics.© 2010 ASME